• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권9호
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• pp.3336-3346
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• 2022

In general, a number of severe accident scenarios derived from Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are typically grouped into several categories to efficiently evaluate their potential impacts on the public with the assumption that scenarios within the same group have similar source term characteristics. To date, however, grouping by similar source terms has been completely reliant on qualitative methods such as logical trees or expert judgements. Recently, an exhaustive simulation approach has been developed to provide quantitative information on the source terms of a large number of severe accident scenarios. With this motivation, this paper proposes a machine learning-based categorization method based on exhaustive simulation for grouping scenarios with similar accident consequences. The proposed method employs clustering with an autoencoder for grouping unlabeled scenarios after dimensionality reductions and feature extractions from the source term data. To validate the suggested method, source term data for 658 severe accident scenarios were used. Results confirmed that the proposed method successfully characterized the severe accident scenarios with similar behavior more precisely than the conventional grouping method.

• 에너지협의회보
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• 통권76호
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• pp.44-57
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• 2006

이 자료는 지난 5월 24일 중국 소흥시에서 개최된 WEC 아태지역 에너지 시나리오 워크숍 및 역내 회원국 회의에서‘Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050’을 위한 아태지역 국가별 보고서 중 에너지경제연구원 김남일 박사가 발표한 우리나라의 국가 보고서 내용 입니다.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• 한국방사성폐기물학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방사성폐기물학회 2004년도 학술논문집
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• pp.188-188
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• 2004

In the present study, a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of ranking of important radionuclide release scenarios in a low and intermediate radioactive waste repository is to treat on the basis of non-additive fuzzy measures and fuzzy integral theory. Ranking of important scenarios can lead to the provision of more effective safety measure in a design stage of the repository. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of scenario alternatives.(omitted)

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.119-125
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• 2006

The impacts of climate changes on building energy demand were investigated by means of the degree-days method. Future trends for the 21st century was assessed based on climate change scenarios with 7 global climate models(GCMs). We constructed hourly weather data from monthly temperatures by Trnsys 16. A procedure to estimate heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) from monthly temperature data was developed and applied to three scenarios for Inchon. In the period 1995-2080, HDD would fall by up to 70%. A significant increase in cooling energy demand was found to occur between 1995-2004(70% based on CDD). During 1995-2080, CDD would Increase by up to 120%. Our analysis shows widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on season. Heating costs in winter will significantly decrease whereas more expensive electrical cooling energy will be needed.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.57-64
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• 2017

Electricity is basic need for country development. But at the present time proper planning and policy is require at high pace for power generation network extension due to the increasing population growth rate. Present study aimed to analyze the present and future demand for electricity at household level in Province of Balochistan of Pakistan via simulation modeling. Data of year 2004-2005 was used as baseline data for electricity consumption to predict future demand of electricity at both rural and urban domestic level up to subsequent 30 years, with help of LEAP software. Basically three scenarios were created to run software. One scenario was Business-As-Usual and other two were green scenarios i.e., solar and wind energy scenarios. Results predicted that by using alternative energy sources, demand for electricity will be fulfill and will also reduce burden on non-renewable energy sources due to the greater potential for solar and wind energy present in Balochistan.

• 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한설비공학회 2006년도 하계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.789-794
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• 2006

The potential impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand were investigated by means of transient building energy simulations and hourly weather data scenarios for Inchon. Future trends for the 21 st century was assessed based oil climate change scenarios with 7 global climate models(GCMs), We constructed hourly weather data from monthly temperatures and total incident solar radiation ($W/m^2$) and then simulated heating and cooling load by Trnsys 16 for Inchon. For 2004-2080, the selected scenarios made by IPCC foresaw a $3.7-5.8^{\circ}C$rise in mean annual air temperature. In 2004-2080, the annual cooling load for a apartment with internal heat gains increased by 75-165% while the heating load fell by 52-71%. Our analysis showed widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on the season. Heating costs will significantly decrease whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed of air conditioning during the summer.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.543-572
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• 2012

본 연구는 2000년부터 현재까지 한국과 일본의 에너지 수급 현황을 비교하는 한편, 2000년 이후 발표된 중장기 저탄소 에너지 계획 및 시나리오 관련 문헌들을 검토하였다. 에너지수급 측면에서 한국과 일본은 모두 에너지 수입의존도가 높고, OECD 국가들 중에서 제조업의 비중이 높으며, 전력 계통은 외부와 고립된 시스템이며, 발전량에서 원전이 차지하는 비중이 높고, 재생에너지 잠재량은 높지만 실제 생산량은 낮다는 점 등이 유사하다. 차이점은 에너지 소비량 추세가 일본은 감소하는 반면, 한국은 증가하고 있으며, 지역간 전력 교류가 한국은 가능한 반면, 일본은 그렇지 않으며, 향후 원자력 확대가 일본은 어려울 전망인 반면, 한국의 현 정부는 원자력 확대 방침을 유지하고 있다는 점 등이다. 후쿠시마 원전 사고 전후로, 일본과 한국의 정부에서 수립한 에너지계획은 원자력을 약 2배 수준으로 확대할 계획으로 하고 있었지만, 시민사회에서는 에너지 수요 저감, 원자력의 단계적 축소, 재생에너지 확대를 내용으로 하는 시나리오들을 발표하였다. 본 연구는 일본과 한국의 중장기 에너지 시나리오 및 계획 수립 연구에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2019

The paper presents the results of a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of 12 feasible Russian nuclear energy deployment scenarios with thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. The comparative evaluation was performed based on 6 performance indicators and 5 different MCDA methods (Simple Scoring Model, MAVT / MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) in accordance with the recommendations elaborated by the IAEA/INPRO section. It is shown that the use of different MCDA methods to compare the nuclear energy deployment scenarios, despite some differences in the rankings, leads to well-coordinated and similar results. Taking into account the uncertainties in the weights within a multi-attribute model, it was possible to rank the scenarios in the absence of information regarding the relative importance of performance indicators and determine the preference probability for a certain nuclear energy deployment scenario. Based on the results of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and additional analysis of alternatives as well as the whole set of graphical and attribute data, it was possible to identify the most promising nuclear energy deployment scenario under the assumptions made.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.239-245
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• 2003

Every nuclear power plant measured concentrations of tritium in groundwater and surface water around the plants periodically. It was not easy to predict the tritium concentration only with these measurement data in case of various release scenarios. KAERI developed a new approach to find the relationship between the tritium release rate and tritium concentration in the environment. The approach was based upon a dynamic compartment model. In this paper the dynamic compartment model was modified to predict the tritium behavior more accurately. The mechanisms considered for the transfer of tritium between the compartments were evaporation, groundwater flow, infiltration, runoff, and hydrodynamic dispersion. Time dependent source terms of the compartment model were introduced to refine the release scenarios. Also, transfer coefficients between the compartments were obtained using realistic geographical data. In order to illustrate the model various release scenarios were developed, and the change of tritium concentration in groundwater and surface water around the nuclear power plants was estimated.