• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.61-68
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• 2019

Recently, climate indices represented by quantifying atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns have been widely used to predict hydrologic variables for considering long-term climate variability. Hydrologic forecasting models based on artificial neural networks have been developed to provide accurate and stable forecasting performance. Forecasts of hydrologic variables considering climate variability can be effectively used for long-term management of water resources and environmental preservation. Therefore, identifying significant indicators for hydrologic variables and applying forecasting models still remains as a challenge. In this study, we selected representative climate indices that have significant relationships with dam inflow time series in the Han-River basin, South Korea for applying the dam inflow forecasting model. For this purpose, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) method was used to identify a significance between dam inflow and climate indices and an artificial neural network(ANN) ensemble model was applied to overcome the limitation of a single ANN model. As a result, the forecasting performances showed that the mean correlation coefficient of the five dams in the training period is 0.88, and the test period is 0.68. It can be expected to come out various applications using the relationship between hydrologic variables and climate variability in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.213-223
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• 2015

The helicopter initial design model was established by using the latest weight estimation equations based on the Tishchenko's methodology through the study existing initial design tools. The sequential decomposition method is used to reduce analysis time in the sizing. Empirical parameters of the weight estimation equation were also extracted from numerical and regression analysis for a helicopter database. Design input and output values were compared with the RISPECT design tool. Finally, comparison of the re-design resulting for several existing helicopters was presented and showed the good agreement within less than 5% in the weight estimation and main rotor sizing. Established initial design model was proved to be effectively used as initial design tool.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.131-139
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• 2003

The products of the quality certificated fisheries which are protected from environmental pollution, decomposition are hygienically safe and convenient for food. However, consumers have not yet understood the recognition of the system of quality certfication so far because of lack of demand on the quality certification fisheries. Above all, to put the system of the quality QC in place sucessfully, to understand the variation of consumer's inclination efficiently, the empirical study must be carried out by both consumer's take part in the market of the quality certificated fisheries products and how much the amount of consumption is in this market. The purpose of this study, under the preconditions where these have limited fisheries items in consumer's inclination survey, is to analyze the demand of QC though the Double Hurdle Model. Explanatory variables included were household characteristics such as housewives' age and education, her job, household income as well as their health perceptions and food purchase behaviors. Survey from 530 household was collected in Pusan City in 2003, of 502 were actually used for empirical analysis. The Double-hurdle framework proved to a better representation of the factors influencing the separate decision participation and consumption levels. According to the results of this study, whether or not, participating In the market of quality certicipating in the market of qualify certificated fisheries products is affected by how much experience and confidence these have got. housewives' having a job or not. Furthermore, the amount of consumption is mostly affected income. This value is attributed to the safety of QC fisheries products in comparison with regular fisheries. Findings suggest that the consumers put substantially high monetary value on safe food, such as high quality fisheries products. Therefore, first of all, legal and institutional systems should be clearly and strictly identified for the QC products.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.87-101
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines the effectiveness of the foreign exchange risk insurance system in the promotion of SME exports in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term responses of SME exports to foreign exchange risk insurance support policies. Based on these empirical studies, we would like to present some operational improvements to the operation of the foreign exchange risk insurance system. Design/methodology - In order to analyze the effect of exchange risk insurance on the exports of SMEs, a VAR model consisting of foreign exchange risk insurance underwriting values, export relative price, and domestic demand pressure, including export volume, was established. The study began with tests of the stationarity of time series data. The unit root tests showed that all concerned variables were non-stationary. Accordingly, the results of the cointegration test showed that the tested variables are not cointegrated. Finally, an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were conducted to analyze the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. Findings - As a result of estimating the VAR (1) model, foreign exchange risk insurance was found to be significant at a 1% significance level for SME' export promotion. In the impulse response analysis, SMEs' export response to the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance showed that exports gradually increased until the third quarter, and then slowed down. However, the impulse did not disappear, and appeared continuously. Originality/value - This study analyzed the effect of foreign exchange insurance on exports of SMEs by applying the VAR model. In particular, this study is the first to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. The empirical evidence in the current study have a policy implication for the policy authority to support and promote the foreign exchange risk insurance in the effect of exchange rate volatility on Korea' export SMEs.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.139-169
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• 2009

This paper introduces the modified VaR which takes into account the asymmetry and fat-tails of financial asset distribution, and then compares its out-of-sample forecast performance with traditional VaR model such as historical simulation model and Riskmetrics. The empirical tests using stock indices of 6 countries showed that the modified VaR has the best forecast accuracy. At the test of independence, Riskmetrics and GARCH model showed best performances, but the independence was not rejected for the modified VaR. The Monte Carlo simulation using skew t distribution again proved the best forecast performance of the modified VaR. One of many advantages of the modified VaR is that it is appropriate for measuring VaR of the portfolio, because it can reflect not only the linear relationship but also the nonlinear relationship between individual assets of the portfolio through coskewness and cokurtosis. The empirical analysis about decomposing VaR of the portfolio of 6 stock indices confirmed that the component VaR is very useful for the re-allocation of component assets to achieve higher Sharpe ratio and the active risk management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.671-680
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• 2019

Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.815-826
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• 2013

Using a developed mathematical model and calibrated kinetic constants, numerical experiments for a aerobic digestion of wastewater sludge by SBR aerobic digestion process combined with ultrasonication (USSBR) were performed in this study. It simulated well the phenomena of the decomposition of particulate organics and the release of organic nitrogen and transformation. To achieve 40 % of particulate organics removal, USSBR process requires only 6 days of SRT and 14 W/L of ultrasonic power whereas SBR aerobic digestion process requires 12 days of SRT. Based on the model simulation results, an empirical equation was presented here. This equation will be used to predict digestion efficiency for the given variables of SRT and ultrasonic power dose. USSBR aerobic digestion process can reduce the nitrogen concentration. The optimal operation strategy for the simultaneous removal of solids and soluble nitrogen in this process is estimated to 7 days of SRT with 14 W/L of ultrasonic power dose while anoxic period was 6 hours out of 24 hours of cycle time. In this condition, 40 % of particulate organics as well as 36 % of total nitrogen will be removed and the soluble nitrogen concentration of the centrate will be lower less then 40 mg/L.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.153-175
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• 2010

This study conducts an analysis to verify an existence of co-movement among the exchange rates of Yuan-Dollar, Yen-Dollar and Won-Dollar by using time series data. An analysis period is divided into two periods. Therefore the first analysis period is from Dec. 17, 1997 to Jul. 21th. 20, 2005 and the second analysis period is from Jul. 25th, 2005 to Nov. 20th. 2009. This paper uses VAR model and daily data of exchange rates during the period. According to the result of an empirical analysis, yuan-dollar exchange rate has affected by th other variables ; yen-dollar exchange rate. It can be proved by result of an impulse response test and variance decomposition test in the second period. Therefore the won-dollar, yen-dollar, and Yen-dollar exchange rate has been influenced each other and the relationship will be maintained.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.17-25
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• 2004

Hull girder stress monitoring system for container ship uses four long-base-strain-gages at mid-ship to monitor the resultant stresses and the applied moment components of horizontal, vertical and torsional moments. The bending moments are estimated by using the conventional strain-moment relations, however, the torsional moment related to the warping strain requires the assumption of the shape of torsional moments over the hull girder. Though this shape could be a sine function with an adequate period, it largely depends upon certain empirical formulas. This paper introduces additional four long-base-strain-gages at mid-ship to derive the longitudinal slope of the warping strain because this slope is directly related to the torsional moment by Bi-moment concept. An open-channel-type cantilever beam has been selected as a simplified model for container ship and the result has proved that the suggested concepts can estimate the torsional component accurately. Finally this method can become reliable technique to derive all external moments in hull girder stress monitoring system for container ships.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.133-142
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• 1996

In this paper, two different techniques for mixed-mode type engineering fracture mechanics are investigated to estimate the stress intensity factors by using p-version finite element model. These two techniques are displacement extrapolation with COD and CSD method and J-integral with decomposition method. By decomposing the displacement field obtained from p-version of finite element analysis into symmetric and antisymmetric displacement fields with respect to the crack line, Mode-I and Mode-II stress intensity factors can be determined using aforementioned techniques. The example problems for validating the proposed techniques are centrally and centrally oblique cracked panels under tension. The numerical results associated with the variation of oblique angle and the ratio of crack length and panel width (a /W ratio) are compared with those by theoretical values and empirical solutions in literatures. Very good agreements with the existing solutions are shown.