• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.403-419
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• 2016

배출권거래제는 기업으로 하여금 최저의 비용으로 감축을 유도하며 배출에 대한 불확실성이 없을 때 효율적인 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 배출에서의 불확실성이 기업의 배출권 구매와 감축에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 배출량이 확실한 경우보다 불확실할 때 기업이 더 많은 감축을 할 것인지는 한계기대벌금과 한계저감비용에 좌우되었다. 한계기대벌금이 한계 감축비용보다 크다면, 기업은 배출량이 확실한 경우보다 더 많이 감축하고 불확실성의 증가에 따라 배출량도 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 또한 감축과 배출권 구매의 순서가 기업의 결정에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으나, 의사결정의 순서와 상관없이 기대배출량은 동일한 것으로 확인되었다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.307-316
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• 2019

농업 분야 온실가스 발생은 토양환경, 기상환경, 작물 생장 등 모든 생태계 변화와 인위적인 영농활동의 상호작용에 따라 변화하여 배출량 변동성의 크기가 매우 크므로 배출량 자료에 대한 신뢰구간 확보가 필요하다. 이에 온실가스 배출량 및 흡수량에 대한 신뢰구간을 정의하는 불확도 평가가 필요하지만 불확도 평가 방법에 대한 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 밭토양에서 발생하는 N₂O 배출량 저감 효과의 유의성을 불확도 추정기법을 통하여 판정하고자 하였다. 질소 비료 시비효과 증진 및 N₂O 배출량 감소를 위한 요소분해효소 억제제 NBPT 함유 원예용 비료, 표준시비, 무시비 등 5처리 집단들의 신뢰구간에 차이가 있는지를 불확도 평가를 통해 확인하였으며, N₂O 배출량 개별 자료들의 변동성을 모두 고려한 신뢰구간을 찾아내어 분석한 결과로 신뢰성 있는 저감 효과(처리간 차이)의 유무를 판정할 수 있었다. 또한 고추와 배추 재배지에서 요소분해효소 억제제 NBPT 함유 원예용 비료를 시용하면 표준시비와 같은 생육상황에서 온실가스 저감효과를 볼 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.212-224
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• 2014

There are several studies on the effects of emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC) from the industrial sources in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area on the high ozone events during the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) in summer of 2000. They showed that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event and suggested "imputation" of HRVOC emissions from the base inventory. Byun et al. (2007b) showed the imputed inventory leads to too high ethylene concentrations compared to the measurements at the chemical super sites but still too little aloft compared to the NOAA aircraft. The paper suggested that the lack of reactivity in the modeled Houston atmosphere must be corrected by targeted, and sometimes of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions from the large sources such as flares in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) distributed into the deeper level of the boundary layer. We performed retrospective meteorological and air quality modeling to achieve better air quality prediction of ozone by comparison with various chemical and meteorological measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study periods in August-September 2006 (TexA QS-II). After identifying several shortcomings of the forecast meteorological simulations and emissions inputs, we prepared new retrospective meteorological simulations and updated emissions inputs. We utilized assimilated MM5 inputs to achieve better meteorological simulations (detailed description of MM5 assimilation can be found in F. Ngan et al., 2012) and used them in this study for air quality simulations. Using the better predicted meteorological results, we focused on the emissions uncertainty in order to capture high peak ozone which occasionally happens in the HGB area. We described how the ozone predictions are affected by emissions uncertainty in the air quality simulations utilizing different emission inventories and adjustments.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.261-290
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• 2022

국내 배출권 시장에서는 시장안정화 조치 발동에도 불구하고 배출권 가격의 불확실성 문제가 지속적으로 대두되고 있다. 그리고 2021년 10월 정부가 발표한 2030 감축목표 상향안을 고려해볼 때 배출권 가격의 불확실성 완화를 위한 실질적인 대안 마련의 필요성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 배출권 시장의 가격 불확실성 완화 수단인 가격상하한제가 배출량과 감축비용에 미치는 정량적인 영향을 살펴본다. 분석을 위한 주요 시나리오는 탄소세, 배출권거래제, 가격상하한제하 배출권거래제 3가지로 구분되며, 배출량 불확실성을 반영하기 위해 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 기반으로 비교 분석하였다. 연구 결과는 다음과 같다: 1) 상하한제 도입 시에는 다른 시나리오 대비 현저히 낮은 감축비용으로 배출목표를 달성할 수 있다. 상향된 감축목표에서는 0.1%의 초과배출이 발생할 수 있으나 상하한 간격이 넓은 경우 안정적인 목표달성이 가능하다. 2) 이월을 제한할수록 감축비용은 상승한다. 이는 이월 제한 정책이 기간 간 효율성을 저해하여 비용효과적인 감축을 어렵게 만들기 때문이다. 3) 상하한제하에서 정부의 배출권 순구매량이 발생해도 순수입은 양이 될 수 있다. 정부는 배출권을 상한가에서 판매하고 하한가에서 구매하기 때문이다.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.228-236
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• 2020

BACKGROUND: The closed chamber method is the most commonly used for measuring greenhouse gas emissions from rice fields. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. However, a measurement result using the chamber method is an estimated value and is complete when the uncertainty is estimated. The methane emissions from a rice paddy account for the largest portion of the greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture sectors. Although assessment of uncertainty components affecting methane emission from a rice paddy is necessary to take account of dispersion characteristics, research on these uncertainty components is very rare to date. The goal of this study was to elucidate influencing factors on measurement uncertainty of methane concentrations measured by a closed automated chamber system from a rice paddy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The methane sampling system is located in the rice paddy in Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services (37°13'15"N, 127°02'22"E). The primary measurement uncertainty components influencing methane concentrations (influencing factors) investigated in this research were repeatability, reproducibility and calibration in the aspects of methane sampling and analytical instrumentation. The magnitudes of the relative standard uncertainty of each influencing factor were quantified and compared. CONCLUSION: Results of this study showed what influencing factors were more important in determination of methane concentrations measured using the chamber system and analytical instrumentation located in the monitoring site. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of the methane concentrations in this study would contribute to improving measurement quality of methane fluxes.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.237-245
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• 2020

BACKGROUND: The closed chamber method is the most commonly used for measuring greenhouse gas emissions from upland fields. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. However, uncertainty estimation is essential for accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and verification of emission reductions. The nitrous oxide emissions from upland field is very important for the nitrogen budget in the agriculture sectors. Although assessment of uncertainty components affecting nitrous oxide emission from upland field is necessary to take account of dispersion characteristics, research on these uncertainty components is very rare to date. This study aims at elucidation of influencing factors on measurement uncertainty of nitrous oxide concentrations measured by an automated open closed chamber method from upland field. METHODS AND RESULTS: The nitrous oxide sampling system is located in the upland field in Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services (37°13'22"N, 127°02'22"E). The primary measurement uncertainty components influencing nitrous oxide concentrations (influencing factors) investigated in this research are repeatability, reproducibility and calibration in the aspects of nitrous oxide sampling and analytical instrumentation. The magnitudes of the relative standard uncertainty of each influencing factor are quantified and compared. CONCLUSION: Results of this study show what influencing factors are more important in determination of nitrous oxide concentrations measured using the automated open closed chambers located in the monitoring site. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of the nitrous oxide concentrations in this study would contribute to improving measurement quality of nitrous oxide fluxes.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.751-771
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• 2011

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emissions are estimated with BEIS3.12 (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System version 3.12) over the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) and then used in CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) simulations for two high ozone episodes in 2004 and 2007 June. The first- and second-order sensitivity coefficients of ozone to BVOC emissions are estimated with High-order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM) simulation in order to estimate the influence of BVOC emissions on ozone using the Zero-Out Contribution (ZOC) approach. ZOC analysis shows that relative contribution of BVOC emissions on daily maximum 1-hr ozone is as high as 30% for high ozone days above 100 ppb. However simulated isoprene concentrations were over-estimated by a factor of 2 when compared to the observations at the PAMS (Photochemical Air Monitoring Station) for the 2007 episode. When assumed that actual BVOC emissions are 50% less than estimated, the ZOC of BVOC emissions on daily maximum ozone drops by more than 10 ppb for the episode. The result indicates that uncertainty in BVOC emissions may have significant impact on high ozone prediction in the SMA.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제20권11호
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• pp.294-304
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• 2019

지금의 농업부문을 포함한 에너지 분야의 온실가스 배출량 산정방법은 하향식(top-down) 방식으로 간주할 수 있으며, 이러한 하향식 온실가스 산정 방법은 제한된 배출계수와 활동자료를 바탕으로 온실가스 인벤토리를 효과적으로 작성할 수 있는 방법이다. 그러나 에너지분야 농림업부문 온실가스 저감 정책 설계를 위해서는 보다 정교한 에너지분야 농림업부문 온실가스 배출량 정보 구축이 필요하다. 이를 위해 현재 온실가스 배출량 산정방식에 대해 살펴본 후, 에너지 분야 농림업부문 온실가스 배출량 산정과 관련한 개선방안에 대해 논의한다. 먼저 에너지분야 농림업부문 배출현황에 대한 엄밀한 파악과 구체적 정책 설계를 위해 2006 IPCC 가이드라인, 해외 국가온실가스인벤토리 보고서, 국내 통계, 관련 문헌 등을 고려하여 세분화된 국가고유 배출계수의 개발과 관련 활동자료 구축 방안을 제안하였다. 구체적으로 다음으로 2006 IPCC 가이드라인을 바탕으로 농업부문 CO₂ 배출량의 불확도(uncertainty)를 계측하고 불확도 개선을 위한 방안을 제시하였으며, 이를 통해 CO₂ 배출량 불확도를 약 1.5%p 감소시킬 수 있음을 보였다. 끝으로 온실 난방 등에 사용되는 농업부문 신재생에너지 사용으로 인한 온실가스 배출량을 반영할 수 있는 활동자료 개선 방안을 제안하였다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제36권6호
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• pp.508-520
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• 2020

Dam reservoirs have been reported to contribute significantly to global carbon emissions, but unlike natural lakes, there is considerable uncertainty in calculating carbon emissions due to the complex of emission pathways. In particular, the method of calculating carbon dioxide (CO2) net atmospheric flux (NAF) based on a simple gas exchange theory from sporadic data has limitations in explaining the spatiotemporal variations in the CO2 flux in stratified reservoirs. This study was aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal CO2 distribution and mass balance in Daecheong Reservoir, located in the mid-latitude monsoon climate zone, by applying a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2). Simulation results showed that the Daecheong Reservoir is a heterotrophic system in which CO2 is supersaturated as a whole and releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Spatially, CO2 emissions were greater in the lacustrine zone than in the riverine and transition zones. In terms of time, CO2 emissions changed dynamically according to the temporal stratification structure of the reservoir and temporal variations of algae biomass. CO2 emissions were greater at night than during the day and were seasonally greatest in winter. The CO2 NAF calculated by the CE-QUAL-W2 model and the gas exchange theory showed a similar range, but there was a difference in the point of occurrence of the peak value. The findings provide useful information to improve the quantification of CO2 emissions from reservoirs. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of reservoir carbon emissions, more precise monitoring in time and space is required.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.295-302
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• 2011

Almost half of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions arise from agriculture and enteric methane ($CH_4 $) emissions arising from ruminant animals constitute 30% of total $CO_2$-e emissions. Enteric $CH_4$ emissions have increased by 9% since 1990. Extensive research has been undertaken to develop reliable methods for measuring enteric $CH_4$ emissions. New Zealand studies using the SF6 tracer technique suggest that on average this technique yields similar values to the 'gold' standard of calorimetry, but with a larger variance. National inventory estimates based on results obtained using the $SF_6$ technique will therefore overestimate the uncertainty. Mitigating emissions can be achieved by changing feed type but there are practical and cost barriers to the use of alternative feeds. Forages containing condensed tannins do reduce emissions but are agronomically inferior to the forages currently used. Rumen additives have shown some success in-vitro but results from in-vivo trials with both monensin and fumaric acid have been disappointing. The development of methods for directly manipulating rumen microorganisms are at an early stage and work to develop vaccines that can inhibit methanogenesis has yielded mixed results. The successful identification of sheep with contrasting $CH_4$ yields raises the possibility that, in the long term, a breeding approach to $CH_4$ mitigation is feasible.