• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.97-122
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• 2020

This paper examines the existence of herd behaviour in fifteen (15) global stock markets, which consist of Developed Markets (Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the United Kingdom), Advanced Emerging Markets (Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland and South Africa) and Secondary Emerging Markets (Chile, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia) by using Cross Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) method of Chiang and Zheng (2010). It also seeks to explore the impact of social factors such as prosperity, education, ageing society, industry orientation and gender on the existence of market-wide herding. The findings of this paper indicate that herd behaviour exists in Singapore (Developed Market), Mexico, Poland and South Africa (Advanced Emerging Markets) and China and the Philippines (Secondary Emerging Markets). No evidence of herding is observed for Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, United Kingdom, Brazil, Malaysia, Chile, Indonesia and Russia. Ageing society is also found to have significant impact on the existence of herd behaviour. Nonetheless, prosperity, education, industry orientation and gender are found to be insignificant to herding. This study sheds some light on whether social factors determine herding behaviour in the 15 selected stock markets.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.77-94
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• 2011

This paper investigates the returns and volatility linkages in equity markets between the regional/global developed markets (Germany, UK, and US) and four emerging European stock markets (Hungary, Czech Republic, Russia, and Poland) using the VAR-bivariate GARCH model. Our empirical results are summarized as follows. First, we found unidirectional return spillover from the regional/global developed markets to the emerging European markets. This finding indicates that the prices of regional/global markets lead those of emerging European stock markets. Second, we also found relatively stronger volatility linkage between the regional developed markets (especially Germany) and the emerging European markets. This implies that the volatility of emerging European markets is strongly affected by the regional developed markets than the global developed markets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.77-88
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• 2021

The stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries are the leading emerging markets globally. Therefore, it is pertinent to ascertain the critical drivers of stock market development in these economies. The currrent study empirically investigates to identify the linkages between stock market development, key macro-economic factors and institutional factors in the BRICS economies. The study covers the time period from 2000 to 2017. The dependent variable is the country's stock market development and the independent variables consist of six macroeconomic variables and five institutional variables. The study employs a panel cointegration test, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach and a heterogeneous panel non-causality test.The findings of the study indicate co-integration among the selected variables across the BRICS stock markets. Long-run estimations reveal that five macroeconomic variables and four variables related to institutional quality are positive and statistically significant. Further, short-run causalities between stock market capitalization and selected variables are detected through the test of non-causality in a heterogeneous panel setting. The findings suggest that policymakers in the BRICS countries should enhance robust macroeconomic conditions to support their financial markets and should strengthen the institutional quality drivers to stimulate the pace of stock market development in their countries.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-60
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• 2023

This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.147-158
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• 2020

We apply Return Dispersion Model by calculating CSAD (Cross-sectional standard deviation of return) and State Space Model to identify herding behavior in the period of pandemic (H1N1 and COVID-19). Employing data from TEJ and Data Stream, this paper examines whether the herding behavior is existing in Vietnam and Taiwan stock market, especially during pandemic influenza. We compare the differences in herding behavior between frontier and emerging markets by examining different industries across Vietnam and Taiwan stock market approaches. The results indicate solid evidence for investor herd configuration in the various industries of Vietnam and Taiwan. The herding impact in the industries will be greater than with the aggregate market. The different industries respond differently to influenza pandemic panics through uptrend and downtrend demonstrations. Up to 12 industries were found to have herding in Vietnam, while Taiwan had only 5 of 17 industries classified. Taiwan market, an emerging and herding-level market, has changed due to the impact of changing conditions such as epidemics, but not as strongly as in Vietnam. From there, we see that the disease is a factor that, not only creates anxiety from a health perspective, but also causes psychological instability for investors when investing in the market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.833-843
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• 2021

This research examines the impact of audit quality on the extent to which firm-specific information is integrated with a firm's share price - which is determined inversely using stock price synchronicity. The study sample consists of non-financial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange i.e., the Jordanian Stock Market, from 2014-2018. After examining 810 firm-year observations from Jordanian industrial companies listed on the ASE, during the study period, we find that the companies using one of the BIG4 audit firms for auditing have less synchronous and more informative stock prices, suggesting high-quality audit improved governance and reduce information asymmetry between firms' insiders and investors which enhances the capitalization of firm's specific information into the stock price, thus less synchronous and more informative stock return. The findings remain consistent over 2 separate measurements of stock price synchronicity (Market and Industry model and Market Model) and show robustness for fixed effect tests. Our multivariate regression results are also robust after controlling for a number of features at the firm level with potential associations with stock price synchronicity. These include the firm size, leverage, return on assets (ROA), and market to book value (MBV).

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.747-757
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• 2021

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillover from financial uncertainty (FU) of the United States (US) to the stock markets of SAARC member countries including India, Sri-Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The empirical literature overlooked SAARC countries and the FU index. Based on the estimation method, the data of FU is available for three different forecast horizons including 1-month, 3-months, and 12-months. For empirical analysis, monthly data is used from February 2013 to September 2019. EGARCH model is employed to investigate the volatility spillover effects. The findings of the study show that the spillover effect of FU varies with the forecast horizon. The FU with a higher forecast horizon has a significant spillover effect on more countries. The spillover effect of US financial uncertainty is negative in most of the SAARC countries. Bangladesh stock market is influenced by FU with all three forecast horizons whereas the volatility of the Pakistan stock market is not influenced by FU with any forecast horizon. The findings are consistent with the concept of "limited trade openness" in the financial markets of emerging economies. The emerging economies avoid financial market openness to minimize the risk of spillover of other countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.45-56
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• 2018

The paper aims to examine relationships between search-based sentiment and stock market reactions in Vietnam. This study constructs an internet search-based measure of sentiment and examines its relationship with Vietnamese stock market returns. The sentiment index is derived from Google Trends' Search Volume Index of financial and economic terms that Vietnamese searched from January 2011 to June 2018. Consistent with prediction from sentiment theories, the study documents significant short-term reversals across three major stock indices. The difference from previous literature is that Vietnam stock market absorbs the contemporaneous decline slower while the subsequent rebound happens within a day. The results of the study suggest that the sentiment-induced effect is mainly driven by pessimism. On the other hand, optimistic investors seem to delay in taking their investment action until the market corrects. The study proposes a unified explanation for our findings based on the overreaction hypothesis of the bearish group and the strategic delay of the optimistic group. The findings of the study contribute to the behavioral finance strand that studies the role of sentiment in emerging financial markets, where noise traders and limits to arbitrage are more obvious. They also encourage the continuous application of search data to explore other investor behaviors in securities markets.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.3-33
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• 2010

While new evidence on international spillover effects has been widely discussed around the globe, the MENA (Middle East and North African) region has received little attention concerning international transmission of stock market movements. In this paper, we discuss international spillover effects between the major developed markets (US, Japan and Germany) and the emerging markets in the MENA region (Turkey and Egypt). While GARCH-type models have mainly been used to investigate international stock market spillovers in much of previous studies, we develop new testing strategies based on discrete wavelet decomposition. The basic finding is that price as well as volatility spillover effects exist from the developed stock markets to the MENA counterparts, although evidence for price spillover to the Egyptian market is rather weak. As for the interdependence of the major MENA stock markets, no spillover effects are found between these markets, while the two MENA markets are somewhat related with each other.