• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.63 no.11
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• pp.1503-1510
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• 2014

This study organizes scenarios on the power supply plans and electricity load forecasts considering their uncertainties and estimates natural gas quantity for electricity generation, total electricity supply cost and air pollutant emission of each scenario. Also the analysis is performed to check the properness of government's natural gas demand forecast and the possibility of achieving the government's CO2 emission target with the current plan and other scenarios. In result, no scenario satisfies the government's CO2 emission target and the natural gas demand could be doubled to the government's forecast. As under-forecast of natural gas demand has caused the increased natural gas procurement cost, it is required to consider uncertainties of power plant construction plan and electricity demand forecast in forecasting the natural gas demand. In addition, it is found that CO2 emission target could be achieved by enlarging natural gas use and demand-side management without big increase of total costs.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.67 no.8
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• pp.1019-1023
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• 2018

In this paper sensitivity analysis of temperature on special day electricity demand of land and Jeju Island is performed. The basic electricity demand per 3 hours is defined as electricity demand that reflects the GDP effect without the temperature influence. The temperature sensitivity per 3 hours is calculated through the relationship between special day electricity demand normalized to basic electricity demand and temperature. In the future, forecast error will be improved if the temperature sensitivity per 3 hours is applied to the special day load forecasting.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.901-922
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• 2007

To see how the electricity demand for air-conditioning responds to weather condition and what kind of weather condition works better in forecasting maximum daily electricity demand, four different regression models, which are linear, exponential, power and S-curve, are adopted. The regression outcome turns out that the electricity demand for air-conditioning is inclined to rely on the exponential model. Another major discovery of this study is that the electricity demand for air-conditioning responds more sensitively to the weather condition year after year along with the higher non-air-conditioning electricity demand. In addition, it has also been found that the discomfort index explains the electricity demand for air-conditioning better than the highest temperature.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.16-22
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• 2017

In order to reduce costs of electricity energy at periods of peak demand, there has been an exponential interest in Demand Response (DR). This paper discusses the effect on the participants' behavior in response to DR. Under the assumption of perfect competition, the equilibrium point of the electricity market with DR is derived by modeling a DR curve, which is suitable for microeconomic analysis. Cournot model is used to analyze the electricity market of imperfect competition that includes strategic behavior of the generation companies. Strategic behavior with DR makes it harder to compute equilibrium point due to the non-differential function of payoff distribution. This paper presents a solution method for achieving the equilibrium point using the best response function of the strategic players. The effect of DR on the electricity market is illustrated using a test system.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.8
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• pp.1342-1348
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• 2008

One important objective of the electricity market is to decrease the price by ensuring stability in the market operation. Interconnected to this is another objective; namely, to realize sustainable consumption of electricity by equitably distributing the effects and benefits of participating in the market among all participants of the industry. One method that can help achieve these objectives is the ^{(R)}$demand-response program, - which allows for active adjustment of the loadage from the demand side in response to the price. The demand-response program requires a customer baseline load (CBL), a criterion of calculating the success of decreases in demand. This study was conducted in order to calculate undistorted CBL by analyzing the correlations between such external or seasonal factors as temperature, humidity, and discomfort indices and the amounts of electricity consumed. The method and findings of this study are accordingly explicated.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.9-14
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• 2018

For an efficient management of electricity market and power systems, accurate forecasts for electricity demand are essential. Since there are many factors, either known or unknown, determining the realized loads, it is difficult to forecast the demands with the past time series only. In this paper we perform a cluster analysis on electricity demand data collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2017. Our purpose of clustering on electricity demand data is that each cluster is expected to consist of data whose latent variables are same or similar values. Then, if properly clustered, it is possible to develop an accurate forecasting model for each cluster separately. To validate the feasibility of this approach for building better forecasting models, we clustered data with t-SNE. To apply t-SNE to time series data effectively, we adopt the dynamic time warping as a similarity measure. From the result of experiments, we found that several clusters are well observed and each cluster can be interpreted as a mix of well-known factors such as trends, seasonality and holiday effects and other unknown factors. These findings can motivate the approaches which build forecasting models with respect to each cluster independently.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.4
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• pp.403-411
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• 2005

At present, the Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in an oligopoly type market. However, several problems exist in the successful application of this model to the electricity market. The representative one is obtaining the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In the Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to obtain maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect the real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears over the long-term through statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as the trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.8
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• pp.418-428
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• 2005

In this paper, a new probabilistic generation modeling method which can address the characteristics of changed electricity industry is proposed. The major contribution of this paper can be captured in the development of a probabilistic generation modeling considering generator maintenance outage and in the classification of market demand into multiple demand clusters for the applications to electricity markets. Conventional forced outage rates of generators are conceptually combined with maintenance outage of generators and, consequently, effective outage rates of generators are newly defined in order to properly address the probabilistic characteristic of generation in electricity markets. Then, original market demands are classified into several distinct demand clusters, which are defined by the effective outage rates of generators and by the inherent characteristic of the original demand. We have found that generators have different effective outage rates values at each classified demand cluster, depending on the market situation. From this, therefore, it can be seen that electricity markets can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns and that the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be more efficiently analyzed in electricity markets perspectives, for this classification can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power systems such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, price forecasts, and so on.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.66 no.8
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• pp.1181-1186
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• 2017

The purpose of Demand Response is to reduce the cost of excessive resources and equipment by spontaneous load reductions at peak loads. Having enough power consumers participating in these schemes is key to achieving the goal. Demand Response Aggregator (DRA) is responsible for recruiting demand resources and managing them to participate in reducing the load. DRAs change the price elasticity of demand functions by providing incentives to demand response, thereby affecting price formation in the electricity market. In this paper, this process is modeled to analyze the relationship between DRA's strategic bidding and market outcomes and load reductions. It analyzes the results by applying to competition between DRAs, competition between DR and Gencos, and coexistence of DR load and non-DR load. It is noteworthy that we have found a phenomenon called the Balloon Effect.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• summer
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• pp.165-167
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• 2004

End-user electric power consumption trends shows various load curves dependant on industry, contract, season, day and time. Analysis of end-user electric power consumption trends has a key role to efficiently meet electricity demand. There are several factors of change in electricity demand such as the change of weather, international conflict, and industrial trends during summer. This paper has analyzed the analysis the end-user electric power consumption trends using the load curve during international conflict. We observed that international conflict decreased electric demand by $5.4\%$. This increase is not significant, and therefore we conclude that the international conflict has not greatly affected Korea's electricity demands. This paper provides useful information so as to mon: efficiently perform demand side management.