• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.59-70
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• 2013

Exit polls failed to estimate the number of seats in the National Assembly for each party in the 2012 General Election, even though they estimated it in interval. Three major broadcast companies jointly carried out exit polls, but made projections independently. The exact methods of projection were not publicly released. This paper proposes confidence intervals for the number of seats in local constituencies using the results of exit polls, and conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the cofidence intervals. The proposed confidence intervals were applied to the real data of 2012 General Election.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.32 no.2B
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• pp.133-142
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• 2007

WPANs are formed in relatively small area and a PNC that serves as a central control device plays an important role in the operation and organization of a piconet. Typical applications of WPANs are security system and health monitoring system. In these type of systems, guaranteeing realtime service is very important, and communications cannot take place when the PNC malfunctions. Thus, in this situation, it is necessary to elect a new PNC as soon as possible. For this reason, we propose distributed PNC election scheme that considers not only QoS support but also network connectivity to avoid possible network partition. Simulation results show proposed mechanism can select PNC with guaranteeing QoS and connectivity for a limited period.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.248-260
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• 2009

To connect a mobile ad hoc network (MANET) with an IP network and to carryout communication, ad hoc network node needs to be configured with unique IP adress. Dynamic host configuration protocol (DHCP) server autoconfigure nodes in wired networks. However, this cannot be applied to ad hoc network without introducing some changes in auto configuration mechanism, due to intrinsic properties (i.e., multi-hop, dynamic, and distributed nature) of the network. In this paper, we propose a scalable autoconfiguration scheme for MANETs with hierarchical topology consisting of leader and member nodes, by considering the global Internet connectivity with minimum overhead. In our proposed scheme, a joining node selects one of the pre-configured nodes for its duplicate address detection (DAD) operation. We reduce overhead and make our scheme scalable by eliminating the broadcast of DAD messages in the network. We also propose the group leader election algorithm, which takes into account the resources, density, and position information of a node to select a new leader. Our simulation results show that our proposed scheme is effective to reduce the overhead and is scalable. Also, it is shown that the proposed scheme provides an efficient method to heal the network after partitioning and merging by enhancing the role of bordering nodes in the group.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.81-111
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• 2017

This article analyzes three major issues related to regional voting in South Korea. First, is regional voting a regional problem or an ideological problem? Second, is regional voting caused by regional identity or regional interest? Third, has regionalism waxed or waned? Analyses of the cumulative data set since the 15th presidential election yield the following results. First, Yongnam people are more conservative than Honam people. Second, regional voting consists of ideological and regional components. Third, there exist both a hometown effect and an abode effect in regional voting, but the latter is significantly greater than the former. Forth, regionalism had weakened between the 15th National Assembly election and the 16th Presidential election, but has not varied much since then.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.57-74
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• 2019

Researchers usually examine the quality of survey data by several conventional measures of reliability and validity. However, those measures are mainly designed to examine the quality of an individual measurement, rather than the quality of a data set as a whole. There is a relative lack of methods for evaluation of the overall data quality. This paper attempts to fill this gap. We propose using interviewers' assessments as one of criteria for evaluating the overall data quality. Interviewers are the ones who literally conduct and thus directly observe interviews. Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) have required interviewers to assess how trustworthy the responses of each of their interviewees are, and to provide several descriptions about the process and environment of the interviews. We use this information to evaluate the data quality of TEDS surveys and compare it with the results from the conventional test-retest method. The findings are that the interviewer assessment is a fair indicator of the overall reliability of attitudinal questions but not a good indicator when factual questions are examined. Regarding the evaluation of data validity, more data is required to see whether or not interviewers' assessment is informative in terms of data quality.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.63-92
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• 2019

What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems, where voters choose one party in district races and another party on the party list ballot? While much of the literature assumes strategic intent, three aspects commonly are overlooked: the competitiveness of district races, the presence of a district candidate from one's preferred party, and whether voters know the electoral threshold for party list seats. Furthermore, few studies disaggregate types of split-ticket voting (e.g. not voting for one's preferred party in a district vs. party list). Taiwan provides an intriguing case study for analysis, not only as a relatively new adopter of a mixed system, but also the presence of additional conditions that would encourage at least the consideration of a split ticket. Using survey data from the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) after the Taiwan's 2016 Legislative Yuan election, this analysis finds that knowing the threshold, the winner's margin, and the placement of a district candidate from one's preferred party all influence split-ticket voting among those with a partisan preference. However, closer inspection identifies a distinction between defecting from the district versus the party list. Evidence shows that district competitiveness and candidate placement influences defection from the district candidate, while the electoral threshold influences defection from the party list. The results add to our understanding of strategic and non-strategic incentives in mixed systems.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.101-106
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• 2017

This paper investigates how news media frame news editorials to deliver their subjective ideological stance through news discourse related with two candidates in 2016 U.S presidential election. For this purpose, 13 editorials were chosen and analyzed which appeared on the New York Time for the period from Sept. 1 to Sept. 30, almost two months prior to the election, giving special attention to the headlines of those editorials and the expressive linguistic forms in the selected two articles, based on the two theoretical frameworks-van Dijk' (1996)'s ideological square and Martin and White (2005)'s Appraisal Theory. The results are as follows: (1) editorials clearly supported Hillary Clinton; (2) following the appraisal theory, the category of 'feeling' was applied in expressing the preference for Hillary, whereas the strategy of judgment for Trump, where the strategy of 'emphasis' from the ideological framework were used for both candidates.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.119-127
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• 2006

This paper is designed to search the new alternatives to supplement the inconvenience of the traditional written ballot method which is executed every early semester to select the class board at the school. It is prepared on the based the results of the design and implement of the wired/wireless inter-working mobile electronic voting system where the students can participate in the real-time class board selection and the decision-making utilizing the mobile phones, PDA and PC they commonly have. It is time when we should consider introducing the electronic voting system, to minimize the students' inconvenience and the subsequent missing class, having to wait in the long line in the designated place to select the class board at every election season. This system enables the students to participate wherever they are other than the common place as well. Further, this research will provide the opportunity to think over the new school election culture in line with the age of Ubiquitous, as well as the useful means in the field to promote the active participation of the parents and students in the students' self-administration, decision-making necessary at the schools.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.203-224
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the budget allocation of Busan-Gwangyang port and political variables such as general election, presidential election, local election and political regimes. To do this, this study did correlation analyses using budget data of all ports in Korea, Busan, and Gwangyang during 1985-2007. The main results of the correlation analyses are as follow: First, there was a positive correlation between budget of Busan and local election. Also, there was a positive correlation between budget of Gwangyang and presidential election. This results suggest that public choice model and political business cycle model seem to apply to the port development policy. Second, there was no correlation between the regionalism of the political regime and budget of Busan-Gwangyang ports. Third, it can be inferred that the national agenda of the hub strategy can be positively related to the implementation of port development budget. Further studies are needed to analyse the relationship between the political variables and establishment of port plan, decision making about port development and ground-breaking of port construction.