• Title/Summary/Keyword: El Ni$\tilde{n}$o

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Development and Evaluation of Statistical Prediction Model of Monthly-Mean Winter Surface Air Temperature in Korea (한반도 겨울철 기온의 월별 통계 예측 모형 구축 및 검증)

  • Han, Bo-Reum;Lim, Yuna;Kim, Hye-Jin;Son, Seok-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.153-162
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    • 2018
  • The statistical prediction model for wintertime surface air temperature, that is based on snow cover extent and Arctic sea ice concentration, is updated by considering $El-Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). These additional factors, representing leading modes of interannual variability in the troposphere and stratosphere, enhance the seasonal prediction over the Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature, even though their impacts are dependent on the predicted month and region. In particular, the prediction of Korean surface air temperature in midwinter is substantially improved. In December, ENSO improved about 10% of prediction skill compared without it. In January, ENSO and QBO jointly helped to enhance prediction skill up to 36%. These results suggest that wintertime surface air temperature in Korea can be better predicted by considering not only high-latitude surface conditions (i.e., Eurasian snow cover extent and Arctic sea ice concentration) but also equatorial sea surface temperature and stratospheric circulation.

Relationship between the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Distribution and Initiation Timing of the Typhoon Season in the Northwestern Pacific (열대 해수면 온도 분포와 북서태평양 태풍의 계절적 활동 시작일 변동 사이의 관련성)

  • Kim, Donghee;Kim, Hyeong-Seog
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2017
  • This study examined the relationship between the initiation timing typhoon season in the Northwestern Pacific and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) using a numerical simulation. The initiation timing of the typhoon season is closely associated with SSTs over the Indian Ocean (IO) and the eastern Pacific (EP) in the preceding winter and early-spring. The experiment based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model showed that the start date of the typhoon season is delayed for about one month when the SSTs over the IO and the EP increase in the preceding winter. The forced tropical SST pattern induces anticyclonic anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific, which is an unfavorable condition for typhoon development, and hence it could delay the initiation of the typhoon season.

Possible Influence of Western North Pacific Monsoon on Tropical Cyclone Activity Around Korea (북서태평양 몬순이 한국 영향태풍활동에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Seon;Park, Ki-Jun;Lee, Kyungmi;Kim, Jeoung-Yun;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.68-81
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

Variability of Satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Relation to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Variation (인도양 쌍극진동 변동에 따른 위성에서 추정된 표층 클로로필-a 농도 변화 연구)

  • Son, Young Baek;Kim, Suk Hyun;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Rho, TaeKeun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.6_1
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    • pp.917-930
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    • 2017
  • To understand the temporal and spatial variations of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) distribution in the Indian Ocean ($30^{\circ}E{\sim}120^{\circ}E$, $30^{\circ}S{\sim}30^{\circ}N$) by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we conducted EOF and K means analyses of monthly satellite-derived Chl-a data in the region during 1998~2016 periods. Chl-a showed low values in the central region of the Indian Ocean and relatively high values in the upwelling region and around the marginal regions of the Indian Ocean. It also had a strong seasonal variation of Chl-a, showing the lowest value in the spring and the highest value in summer due to the change of the monsoon and current system. The EOF analysis showed that Chl-a variation in EOF mode 1 is related to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$/Southern Oscillation) and that of mode 2 is linked to IOD. Both modes explained spatially opposite trends of Chl-a in the east and west Indian Ocean. From K means analysis, the Chl-a variation in the east and west Indian Ocean, and around India have relatively good relationship with IOD while that in the tropical and middle Indian Ocean closely associated with ENSO. The spatial and temporal distribution of Chl-a also showed distinct spatial and temporal variations depend on the different types of IOD events. IOD classifies two patterns, which occurred during the developing ENSO (First Type IOD) and the year following ENSO event (Second Type IOD). Chl-a variation in the First Type IOD started in summer and peaked in fall around the east and west Indian Ocean. Chl-a variation in the Second Type IOD occurred started in spring, peaked in summer and fall, and disappeared in winter. In the Chl-a variation related to IOD, developing process appearing in the Chl-a difference between the east and west Indian ocean was similar. Chl-a variation in the northern Indian Ocean were opposite trend with changing developing phase of IOD.

Management of Citrus Canker in Argentina, a Success Story

  • Canteros, B.I.;Gochez, A.M.;Moschini, R.C.
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.441-449
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    • 2017
  • Citrus canker is an important bacterial disease of citrus in several regions of the world. Strains of Xanthomonas citri type-A (Xc-A) group are the primary pathogen where citrus canker occurs. After Xc-A entered the Northeast of Argentina in 1974, the disease spread rapidly from 1977 to 1980 and then slowed down and remained moving at slow pace until 1990 when it became endemic. Citrus canker was detected in Northwest Argentina in 2002. This paper presents the main steps in the fight of the disease and the management strategies that have been used to control citrus canker at this time. We think the process might be usefull to other countries with the same situation. Results from more than 40 years of research in Northeast (NE) Argentina indicate that we are at the limit of favorable environment for the disease. The severity of citrus canker is greatly affected by the environment and El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which causes cyclic fluctuations on the disease intensity in the NE region. Weather-based logistic regression models adjusted to quantify disease levels in field conditions showed that the environmental effect was strongly modulated by the distance from a windbreak. Production of healthy fruits in citrus canker endemic areas is possible knowing the dynamics of the disease. A voluntary Integrated Plan to Reduce the Risk of Canker has been in place since 1994 and it allows growers to export unsymptomatic, uninfested fresh fruit to countries which are free of the disease and require healthy, pathogen free fruits. The experience from Argentina can be replicated in other countries after appropriate trials.

Analysis of Characteristics for 2016 Changma Rainfall (2016년 한반도 장마 강수 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Yong;Seo, Kyong-Hwan;Yeh, Sang-Wook;Kim, Hyun-Kyung;Yim, So-Young;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Kown, MinHo;Ham, Yoo-Geun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.277-290
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    • 2017
  • Characteristics of precipitation in South Korea during the 2016 Changma period (6/18~7/30) are analyzed in great details. El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-induced tropical Indian Ocean (IO) basin-wide warming lasts from spring to early summer and induces the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) circulation anomaly through an equatorial Kelvin wave during the 2016 Changma period. Along the northern edge of the WNPSH, strong precipitation occurred, in particular, over eastern China and southern Japan. During the Changma period, South Korea had the near-normal mean precipitation amount (~332 mm). However, about 226 mm of rain fell in South Korea during 1 July to 6 July, which amounts to 67% of total Changma precipitation in that year. Upper-level synoptic migratory lows and low-level moisture transport played an essential role, especially from 1 July to 3 July, in triggering an abrupt development of fronts over the Korean Peninsula and the eastern continent China. The front over the eastern China migrates progressively eastward, which results in heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula from 1 to 3 July. In contrast, from 4 to 6 July, the typhoon (NEPARTAK) affected an abrupt northward advance of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). The northward extension of the NPSH strengthens the Changma front and induces the southerly flows toward the Korean peninsula, giving rise to an increase in heavy rainfall. The NEPARTAK is generated due to interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave and Kelvin waves.

Hydrometeors and Atmospheric Thermal Structure Derived from the Infrared and Microwave Satellite Observations: Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) and Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) (적외선과 마이크로파 위성관측에서 유도된 대기물현상 및 대기 열적 상태: 적외선 간섭분광계 (IRIS)와 Microwave Sounding Unit)

  • Yoo, Jung-Moon;Song, Hee-Young;Lee, Hyun-A;Koo, Gyo-Sook
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.69-90
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    • 2002
  • The infrared and microwave satellite observations have been used to derive the information of hydrometeors (i.e., cloud and precipitation) and atmospheric temperature. The observations were made by the Nimbus-4 Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) in 1970, and by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) during the period 1980-99, which had channel 1~4 (Chl~4). The IRIS, which has a field of view of ~100 km, has been utilized to examine the cirrus and marine stratus clouds. The cirrus and stratus distributions were obtained, respectively, based on the spectral difference in the infrared window region, and the absorption of water vapor and $CO_2$ in the spectral region $870-980cm^{-1}$. The MSU Ch1 data has been used for low tropospheric temperature and hydrometeors, while the Ch2, Ch3 and Ch4, respectively, for the thermal state of midtroposphere, tropopause, and lower stratosphere. The climatic aspects of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and temperature trends over the globe are discussed with the MSU data. This study suggests that the IRIS and MSU data are useful for monitoring the hydrometeors and atmospheric thermal state in climate system.

Trends in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Change Near the Korean Peninsula for the Past 130 Years (지난 130년 간 한반도 근해의 표층 수온 변화 경향)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Woo, Sung-Ho;Kim, Baek-Min;Hur, Soon-Do
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.281-290
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    • 2011
  • This study examined the change in sea surface temperature (SST) around the Korean peninsula since industrialization at year 1880, and its possible causes using observation based data from the Hadley Center, the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, and National Climate Data Center. Since year 1880, There have been multi-decadal fluctuations with a gradual reduction from 1880 to around 1940, and from 1950-1980. There has then been a marked increase from 1940-1950, and from 1980 to the present. The ocean surface warming is larger during the boreal winter than summer, and greater in the south. The multi-decadal SST fluctuations around the Korean Peninsula are largely consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which fluctuates with periods of about 20-50 years. Secondly, the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whose long period component moves along with the PDO, appears to influence the SST near the Korean Peninsula, especially in recent decades. Overall, the SST around the Korean Peninsula has warmed since year 1880 by about $1^{\circ}C$, which is about twice the global-mean ocean surface warming. This long-term warming is aligned with an increase in greenhouse gas concentration, as well as local factors such as the PDO.

Variability of Surface Chlorophyll Concentration in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (북서태평양의 표층엽록소 변동성)

  • Park, Ji-Soo;Suk, Moon-Sik;Yoon, Suk;Yoo, Sin-Jae
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.277-287
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    • 2008
  • We collected information on seasonal and interannual variability of surface chlorophyll a concentration between 1997-2007 from the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Satellite data were used to acquire chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature from six regions: East Sea/Ulleung Basin, East China Sea, Philippin Sea, Warm Pool region, Warm Pool North region, and Warm Pool East region. Mixed layer depth (MLD) was calculated from temperature profiles of ARGO floats data in four of the six regions during 2002-2007. In the East Sea/Ulleung Basin, seasonal variability of chlorophyll a concentration was attributed to seasonal change of MLD, while there was no significant relationship between chlorophyll a concentration and MLD in the Warm Pool region. Interannual anomaly in sea surface temperature were similar among the East Sea, East China Sea, Philippin Sea, and Warm Pool North region. The anomaly pattern was reversed in the Warm Pool East region. However, the anomaly pattern in the Warm Pool region was intermediate of the two patterns. In relation to chlorophyll a, there was a reversed interannual anomaly pattern between Warm Pool North and Warm Pool East, while the anomaly pattern in the Warm Pool region was similar to that of Warm Pool North except for the El $Ni\tilde{n}o$ years (1997/1998, 2002/2003, 2006/2007). However, there was no distinct relationship among other seas. Interestingly, in the Warm Pool and Warm Pool East regions, sea surface temperature showed a pronounced inverse pattern with chlorophyll a. This indicates a strong interrelationship among sea surface temperature-MLD-chlorophyll a in the regions. In the Warm Pool and Warm Pool East, zonal distribution of chlorophyll a concentration within the past 10 years has shown a good relationship with sea surface temperature which reflects ENSO variability.

Temporal and spatial analysis of SST and thermal fronts in the North East Asia Seas using NOAA/AVHRR data

  • Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • v.2
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    • pp.831-835
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    • 2006
  • NOAA/AVHRR data were used to analyze sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and thermal fronts (TFs) in the Korean seas. Temporal and spatial analyses were based on data from 1993 to 2000. Harmonic analysis revealed mean SST distributions of $10{\sim}25^{\circ}C$. Annual amplitudes and phases were $4{\sim}11^{\circ}C$ and $210{\sim}240^{\circ}$, respectively. Inverse distributions of annual amplitudes and phases were found for the study seas, with the exception of the East China Sea, which is affected by the Kuroshio Current. Areas with high amplitudes (large variations in SSTs) showed 'low phases' (early maximum SST); areas with low amplitudes (small variations in SSTs) had 'high phases' (late maximum SST). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of SSTs revealed a first-mode variance of 97.6%. Annually, greater SST variations occurred closer to the continent. Temporal components of the second mode showed higher values in 1993, 1994, and 1995. These phenomena seemed to the effect of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. The Sobel edge detection method (SEDM) delineated four fronts: the Subpolar Front (SPF) separating the northern and southern parts of the East Sea; the Kuroshio Front (KF) in the East China Sea, the South Sea Coastal Front (SSCF) in the South Sea, and a tidal front (TDF) in the West Sea. Thermal fronts generally occurred over steep bathymetric slopes. Annual amplitudes and phases were bounded within these frontal areas. EOF analysis of SST gradient values revealed the temporal and spatial variations in the TFs. The SPF and SSCF were most intense in March and October; the KF was most significant in March and May.

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