• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.4 no.3 s.14
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• pp.33-41
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between El Nino phenomena and the monthly rainfall variations of Seoul city which is composed of 30 year data during $1967{\sim}1996$. In this study, the monthly rainfall data at Seoul city is analyzed by applying an intervention model. As it is unavailable to get the data of El Nino phenomena, the point of intervention have been decided from the literature survey of the data observed to be the years of 1972, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1986 and 1991. As a results the El Nino was revealed more significant to the monthly rainfall at Seoul. In addition, monthly rainfall varied between the maximum 53.41mm and the minimum 2.50mm. To prevented future natural disaster, long term water planning and management is requied in consideration El $Nin\tilde{o}$.