• Title/Summary/Keyword: Efficacy reasoning

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Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity

  • Kim, Steven H.;Lee, Dong-Yun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 1997
  • The utility of learning techniques in investment analysis has been demonstrated in many areas, ranging from forecasting individual stocks to entire market indexes. To date, however, the application of artificial intelligence to financial forecasting has focused largely on short predictive horizons. Usually the forecast window is a single period ahead; if the input data involve daily observations, the forecast is for one day ahead; if monthly observations, then a month ahead; and so on. Thus far little work has been conducted on the efficacy of long-term prediction involving multiperiod forecasting. This paper examines the impact of alternative procedures for extended prediction using knowledge discovery techniques. One dimension in the study involves temporal granularity: a single jump from the present period to the end of the forecast window versus a web of short-term forecasts involving a sequence of single-period predictions. Another parameter relates to the numerosity of input variables: a technical approach involving only lagged observations of the target variable versus a fundamental approach involving multiple variables. The dual possibilities along each of the granularity and numerosity dimensions entail a total of 4 models. These models are first evaluated using neural networks, then compared against a multi-input jump model using case based reasoning. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting the S&P 500 index.

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A Study on Xu Dachun's Understanding of Medicinals According to the Shennong Bencao Baizhonglu (서영태(徐靈胎)의 본초관(本草觀)에 대한 연구(硏究) - 『신농본초경백종록(神農本草經百種錄)』을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyup
    • Journal of Korean Medical classics
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.95-117
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    • 2021
  • Objectives : Based on the entries on each medicinal's 'specification' and the phrase '所以然' in the Shennong Bencao Baizhonglu, this paper aims to examine Xu Dachun's understanding of herbal medicinals. Methods : One hundred medicinals from the text were sorted into eight categories: Qi, flavor, color, form, quality, nature and characteristic, time of growth, and producer, then examined. Results : 1. Medicinals related to Qi were aromatic and pungent and warm. 2. Medicinals related to flavor were explained according to the Five Flavors' nature in terms of the thing and its functions theory. 3. Medicinals related to color were explained in relation to the Five Colors, whose interpretations were rather erratic. 4. Medicinals related to form were explained as it being possible to figure out their effects based on each medicinal's shape and form. 5. Medicinals related to quality were those that were used to manage dryness and dampness using their dry or wet qualities. 6. Medicinals related to nature and characteristics needed to be understood in their originality to grasp their unique abilities. 7. Both producer and time of growth were closely related to each medicinal's efficacy. Conclusions : Understanding of the application of medicinals in the Shennong Bencaojing through continuous examination into each medicinal's 'specification' and 'its reasoning', together with their clinical application, will allow for learners to build an understanding of herbal medicinals.

An Empirical Study in Relationship between Franchisor's Leadership Behavior Style and Commitment by Focusing Moderating Effect of Franchisee's Self-efficacy (가맹본부의 리더십 행동유형과 가맹사업자의 관계결속에 관한 실증적 연구 - 가맹사업자의 자기효능감의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Hoe-Chang;Lee, Young-Chul
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.49-71
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    • 2010
  • Franchise businesses in South Korea have contributed to economic growth and job creation, and its growth potential remains very high. However, despite such virtues, domestic franchise businesses face many problems such as the instability of franchisor's business structure and weak financial conditions. To solve these problems, the government enacted legislation and strengthened franchise related laws. However, the strengthening of laws regulating franchisors had many side effects that interrupted the development of the franchise business. For example, legal regulations regarding franchisors have had the effect of suppressing the franchisor's leadership activities (e.g. activities such as the ability to advocate the franchisor's policies and strategies to the franchisees, in order to facilitate change and innovation). One of the main goals of the franchise business is to build cooperation between the franchisor and the franchisee for their combined success. However, franchisees can refuse to follow the franchisor's strategies because of the current state of franchise-related law and government policy. The purpose of this study to explore the effects of franchisor's leadership style on franchisee's commitment in a franchise system. We classified leadership styles according to the path-goal theory (House & Mitchell, 1974), and it was hypothesized and tested that the four leadership styles proposed by the path-goal theory (i.e. directive, supportive, participative and achievement-oriented leadership) have different effects on franchisee's commitment. Another purpose of this study to explore the how the level of franchisee's self-efficacy influences both the franchisor's leadership style and franchisee's commitment in a franchise system. Results of the present study are expected to provide important theoretical and practical implications as to the role of franchisor's leadership style, as restricted by government regulations and the franchisee's self-efficacy, which could be needed to improve the quality of the long-term relationship between the franchisor and franchisee. Quoted by Northouse(2007), one problem regarding the investigation of leadership is that there are almost as many different definitions of leadership as there are people who have tried to define it. But despite the multitude of ways in which leadership has been conceptualized, the following components can be identified as central to the phenomenon: (a) leadership is a process, (b) leadership involves influence, (c) leadership occurs in a group context, and (d) leadership involves goal attainment. Based on these components, in this study leadership is defined as a process whereby franchisor's influences a group of franchisee' to achieve a common goal. Focusing on this definition, the path-goal theory is about how leaders motivate subordinates to accomplish designated goals. Drawing heavily from research on what motivates employees, path-goal theory first appeared in the leadership literature in the early 1970s in the works of Evans (1970), House (1971), House and Dessler (1974), and House and Mitchell (1974). The stated goal of this leadership theory is to enhance employee performance and employee satisfaction by focusing on employee motivation. In brief, path-goal theory is designed to explain how leaders can help subordinates along the path to their goals by selecting specific behaviors that are best suited to subordinates' needs and to the situation in which subordinates are working (Northouse, 2007). House & Mitchell(1974) predicted that although many different leadership behaviors could have been selected to be a part of path-goal theory, this approach has so far examined directive, supportive, participative, and achievement-oriented leadership behaviors. And they suggested that leaders may exhibit any or all of these four styles with various subordinates and in different situations. However, due to restrictive government regulations, franchisors are not in a position to change their leadership style to suit their circumstances. In addition, quoted by Northouse(2007), ssubordinate characteristics determine how a leader's behavior is interpreted by subordinates in a given work context. Many researchers have focused on subordinates' needs for affiliation, preferences for structure, desires for control, and self-perceived level of task ability. In this study, we have focused on the self-perceived level of task ability, namely, the franchisee's self-efficacy. According to Bandura (1977), self-efficacy is chiefly defined as the personal attitude of one's ability to accomplish concrete tasks. Therefore, it is not an indicator of one's actual abilities, but an opinion of the extent of how one can use that ability. Thus, the judgment of maintain franchisee's commitment depends on the situation (e.g., government regulation and policy and leadership style of franchisor) and how it affects one's ability to mobilize resources to deal with the task, so even if people possess the same ability, there may be differences in self-efficacy. Figure 1 illustrates the model investigated in this study. In this model, it was hypothesized that leadership styles would affect the franchisee's commitment, and self-efficacy would moderate the relationship between leadership style and franchisee's commitment. Theoretically, quoted by Northouse(2007), the path-goal approach suggests that leaders need to choose a leadership style that best fits the needs of subordinates and the work they are doing. According to House & Mitchell (1974), the theory predicts that a directive style of leadership is best in situations in which subordinates are dogmatic and authoritarian, the task demands are ambiguous, and the organizational rule and procedures are unclear. In these situations, franchisor's directive leadership complements the work by providing guidance and psychological structure for franchisees. For work that is structured, unsatisfying, or frustrating, path-goal theory suggests that leaders should use a supportive style. Franchisor's Supportive leadership offers a sense of human touch for franchisees engaged in mundane, mechanized activity. Franchisor's participative leadership is considered best when a task is ambiguous because participation gives greater clarity to how certain paths lead to certain goals; it helps subordinates learn what actions leads to what outcome. Furthermore, House & Mitchell(1974) predicts that achievement-oriented leadership is most effective in settings in which subordinates are required to perform ambiguous tasks. Marsh and O'Neill (1984) tested the idea that organizational members' anger and decline in performance is caused by deficiencies in their level of effort and found that self-efficacy promotes accomplishment, decreases stress and negative consequences like depression and emotional instability. Based on the extant empirical findings and theoretical reasoning, we posit positive and strong relationships between the franchisor's leadership styles and the franchisee's commitment. Furthermore, the level of franchisee's self-efficacy was thought to maintain their commitment. The questionnaires sent to participants consisted of the following measures; leadership style was assessed using a 20 item 7-point likert scale developed by Indvik (1985), self-efficacy was assessed using a 24 item 6-point likert scale developed by Bandura (1977), and commitment was assessed using a 6 item 5-point likert scale developed by Morgan & Hunt (1994). Questionnaires were distributed to Korean optical franchisees in Seoul. It took about 20 days to complete the data collection. A total number of 140 questionnaires were returned and complete data were available from 137 respondents. Results of multiple regression analyses testing the relationships between the each of the four styles of leadership shown by the franchisor as independent variables and franchisee's commitment as the dependent variable showed that the relationship between supportive leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.13, p<.001),and the relationship between participative leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.07, p<.001)were significant. However, when participants divided into high and low self-efficacy groups, results of multiple regression analyses showed that only the relationship between achievement-oriented leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.14, p<.001) was significant in the high self-efficacy group. In the low self-efficacy group, the relationship between supportive leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.17, p<.001),and the relationship between participative leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.10, p<.001) were significant. The study focused on the franchisee's self-efficacy in order to explore the possibility that regulation, originally intended to protect the franchisee, may not be the most effective method to maintain the relationships in a franchise business. The key results of the data analysis regarding the moderating role of self-efficacy between leadership behavior style as proposed by path-goal and commitment theory were as follows. First, this study proposed that franchisor should apply the appropriate type of leadership behavior to strengthen the franchisees commitment because the results demonstrated that supportive and participative leadership styles by the franchisors have a positive influence on the franchisee's level of commitment. Second, it is desirable for franchisor to validate the franchisee's efforts, since the franchisee's characteristics such as self-efficacy had a substantial, positive effect on the franchisee's commitment as well as being a meaningful moderator between leadership and commitment. Third, the results as a whole imply that the government should provide institutional support, namely to put the franchisor in a position to clearly identify the characteristics of their franchisees and provide reasonable means to administer the franchisees to achieve the company's goal.

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Metacognitive Learning Methods to Improve Mathematical Thinking (메타인지 전략 학습을 통한 수학적 사고력 신장 방안 연구)

  • Park, Hey-Yeun;Jung, Soon-Mo;Kim, Yunghwan
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.717-746
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    • 2014
  • The study aimed to explore how to improve mathematical thinking through metacognitive learning by stressing metacognitive abilities as a core strategy to increase mathematical creativity and problem-solving abilities. Theoretical exploration was followed by an analysis of correlations between metacognitive abilities and various ways of mathematical thinking. Various metacognitive teaching and learning methods used by many teachers at school were integrated for sharing. Also, the methods of learning application and assessment of metacognitive thinking were explored. The results are as follows: First, metacognitive abilities were positively related to 'reasoning, communication, creative problem solving and commitment' with direct and indirect effects on mathematical thinking. Second, various megacognitive ability-applied teaching and learning methods had positive impacts on definitive areas such as 'anxiety over Mathematics, self-efficacy, learning habit, interest, confidence and trust' as well as cognitive areas such as 'learning performance, reasoning, problem solving, metacognitive ability, communication and expression', which is a result applicable to top, middle and low-performance students at primary and secondary education facilities. Third, 'metacognitive activities, metaproblem-solving process, personal strength and weakness management project, metacognitive notes, observation tables and metacognitive checklists' for metacognitive learning were suggested as alternatives to performance assessment covering problem-solving and thinking processes. Various metacognitive learning methods helped to improve creative and systemic problem solving and increase mathematical thinking. They did not only imitate uniform problem-solving methods suggested by a teacher but also induced direct experiences of mathematical thinking as well as adjustment and control of the thinking process. The study will help teachers recognize the importance of metacognition, devise and apply teaching or learning models for their teaching environments, improving students' metacognitive ability as well as mathematical and creative thinking.

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Effects of One-to-Many Tutoring Mathematics Cooperative Learning on the Cognitive and Affective Domains of High School Students (일대다 튜토링 수학 협동학습이 고등학생의 인지적·정의적 영역에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoo, Ki Jong
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2020
  • This study constructed an experiment group and a comparative group, composed of high school students preparing for "Na" type math exam and provided one-to-many tutoring cooperative learning. This study tested the differences between group and between pre- and post-treatment scores by group using non-parametric statistics techniques. Moreover, this study conducted an open-type survey twice and had individual interviews to examine the affective domains of students. The difference in scores between the experimental group and the comparative group was not significant. However, the difference between pre- and post-treatment math scores was only significant in the experiment group among the three groups. Additionally, the student-teacher could reflect on him or her and improve self-efficacy while teaching other ordinary students. The ordinary students were more interested and motivated in the lessons and became more confident. In terms of mathematics competency, we could see that communication, problem-solving, reasoning, and attitude & practice were improved.

The Relationships among Students' Mapping Understanding, Mapping Errors and Cognitive/Affective Variables in Learning with Analogy (비유를 사용한 수업에서 학생들의 인지적.정의적 특성과 대응 이해 및 대응 오류 유형과의 관계)

  • Kim, Kyung-Sun;Hwang, Sun-Young;Noh, Tae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.150-157
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we investigated the differences of mapping understanding and the types of mapping errors by the levels of students' cognitive/affective variables and the relationships between mapping understanding and these variables in learning 'concentration and reaction rate' with analogy. After administering the tests regarding logical thinking ability, visual imagery ability, analogical reasoning ability, self efficacy, and need for cognition as pretests, students learned with analogy. Then, students' familiarity and mapping understanding were examined. Analyses of the results revealed that the scores of the mapping understanding for the students with higher levels of all cognitive/affective variables except visual imagery ability and familiarity were significantly higher than those for the students with lower levels. The differences in the types of the mapping errors such as overmapping, failure to map, impossible mapping, artificial mapping, mismapping, rash mapping, and retention of a base feature were also found by the levels of students' cognitive and affective variables. The scores of students' mapping understanding were positively correlated with those of all cognitive and affective variables. The results of multiple regression analysis indicated that students' science achievement, logical thinking ability, and familiarity were significant predictors of mapping understanding. Educational implications of these findings are discussed.

The Difference of Gestures between Scientists and Middle School Students in Scientific Discourse: Focus on Molecular Movement and the Change in State of Material (과학담화에서 과학자와 중학생의 제스처 비교 -분자운동과 물질의 상태변화를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ji Hyeon;Cho, Hae Ree;Cho, Young Hoan;Jeong, Dae Hong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.273-291
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    • 2018
  • Gestures accompanied by scientific discourses play an important role in constructing mental models and making model-based inferences. According to embodied cognition literature, gestures can be a source of recognition of the mental models of students and help them in changing naive beliefs about science. This study intends to compare the gestures of scientists with that of middle school students in explaining scientific phenomena and to explore the relationship between gestures and scientific discourse. In the study, 10 scientists and 10 middle school students participated in clinical interviews and the tests of knowledge and self-efficacy. Participants engaged in one-on-one clinical interviews with semi-structured questions about three tasks regarding the molecular movement and the state change of matter. Four researchers carried out open coding and applied a constant comparison method in order to analyze video-recorded gestures. This study found four themes (feature of gesture, use of gesture, content of gesture, function of gesture) about the differences of gestures between scientists and middle school students. Scientists used more diverse and elaborate gestures systematically and frequently in the interview. Although students used gestures in their scientific talk and reasoning, the gestures of students were not well grounded on scientific knowledge and had different functions from those of scientists. The findings revealed that gestures can represent underlying cognition and strengthen scientific thinking. We should encourage students to use gestures as a tool to understand scientific concepts and make inferences.