• 제목/요약/키워드: Economics of Keynes

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케인스 『일반이론』의 혁명성 : 반박과 재검토 (The Revolution of Keynes's General Theory: Refutation and Revisitation)

  • 조복현
    • 사회경제평론
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.63-105
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    • 2018
  • 케인스는 그의 "일반이론"을 통해, 자본주의경제는 불완전고용이 일반적이고, 불완전 고용은 자동적으로 회복될 수 없으며, 주기적인 경기순환을 겪는다는 혁명적 주장을 제시했다. 그러나 케인스의 혁명적 주장에 대해, 힉스는 불완전 고용은 불경기에 나타나는 특수한 경우이며, 모딜리아니는 임금경직성이라는 특수한 가정 하에서만 타당하다고 반박했다. 또한 피구와 파틴킨은 임금과 가격이 신축적인 경제에서 실업은 자동적으로 치유된다고 반박했다. 힉스 등의 이러한 도전은 케인스 "일반이론"에서 나타나는 혁명성을 쇠퇴하게 만들었다. 그러나 이들의 주장은 케인스 주장을 올바로 해석한 것도, 또 그것을 효과적으로 반박한 것도 아니다. 이들은 케인스를 협소하게 고전파의 틀 속에서 해석했고, 또 고전파의 주장을 다시 불러내 케인스를 반박했다. 케인스 "일반이론"의 혁명성은 이들의 반박에 의해 그 타당성을 손상받지는 않으며, 오히려 오늘날의 경제현실을 분석하는데 있어서 더욱 더 큰 유용성을 갖는다고 할 수 있을 것이다.

Investigating Keynesian Theory in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty in Indonesia

  • PRASETYO, P. Eko;CAHYANI, E. Nur
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권10호
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2022
  • This research aims to investigate the application of Keynes's theory in Indonesia, particularly in solving unemployment and poverty problems through government spending, economic growth, and human resource capacity. The basic concepts of the Keynesian theory were used as a method, through which government spending was harnessed toward economic growth in reducing unemployment and poverty rate. The analytical materials used were panel data for the 2017-2021 period in Central Java, Indonesia. The analytical methodology used was a multiple regression experimental design in selecting the best model according to Keynes's theory, especially for overcoming formidable problems. The main results showed that large Government spending program is ineffective in encouraging pro-growth, pro-job, pro-poor, and pro-equity development policy strategies. The causes of this failure include the violation of Keynes' assumptions about rationality and the low quality of education investment, which do not encourage productive and innovative entrepreneurship, as well as self-employment opportunities. As a result, government spending, including subsidies and direct financial assistance, used to implement the macroeconomic monetary, unstructured, and fiscal policy system is insufficient to significantly reduce the enormous difficulties. The main research results confirm that human capital capacity is the key to mitigating and reducing unemployment and poverty.

포스트케인즈학파 내생화폐이론과 은행의 이중기능: 수평주의자와 구조주의자에 대한 새로운 이해 (Post Keynesian Endogenous Money Theory and Banking Activity)

  • 민병길
    • 사회경제평론
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    • 제38호
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    • pp.199-240
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    • 2012
  • 포스트케인즈학파(PK) 내생화폐이론에 따르면, 기업은 신규투자를 수행하기 위해 은행에 대한 대부수요를 만들고, 이에 대한 은행의 대출공급으로 예금화폐가 창조된다. 은행의 자산 측면에서의 신용창조가 부채측면에서 화폐창조로 이어지면서 은행의 대차대조표에서 실물과 화폐가 연결된다. 이 글은 은행의 기능을 중심으로 황재홍(2005)에 대한 비판적 고찰을 통하여 케인즈와 PK 내생화폐이론을 살펴보고자 한다. 이로써 다음과 같은 결론이 도출된다. 첫째, PK 내생화폐이론의 기반을 케인즈에게서 찾을 수 있다. 둘째, 케인즈의 화폐내생성과 빅셀의 그것은 본질적 측면에서 서로 다르다. 마지막으로, PK 내부의 수평주의자와 구조주의자의 논쟁을 이들의 논의의 결론이 아닌 분석상의 차이점에 초점을 두고 보면, 내생화폐이론과 유동성 선호이론은 케인즈 이론 체계에서 양립가능한 이론이 될 수 있다.

How to Recover From the Great Recession: The Case of a Two-Sector Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Capital

  • Jeon, Jong-Kyou
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

지방대학이 지역경제에서 차지하는 역할과 영향에 대한 연구 (A Study on Regional Economic Role and Impact of Regional University)

  • 차대규;조재완
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.255-282
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    • 2003
  • This study shows how much the local college influences the local economy using the Keynes Model, which is evaluated as the basic of macro economics. The methods of research are economic measurement and empirical study being used questionnaire study. First of all, the result being used Keynes model shows that the local economy has been grown by the students of "D" university from 1994 to 2002, which is approximately more than 100 billion won a year. The amount is more than 15-30% among the gross income in "S" city. Next, the survey was carried out making the students of "D" university and villagers an object of it, which is especially a comparative study between "D" university and "K" university nearby "S" city. The result is as the follows; the influence of the two universities towards local economy is almost same, but the villagers in "S" city underestimate the valuable. In the result, the shortage of understanding about the importance of local college would cause obstructing not only the potential ability of local college, eventually, but also the development of the region.

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The Application of Optimal Control Through Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Economy

  • SYAHRINI, Intan;MASBAR, Raja;ALIASUDDIN, Aliasuddin;MUNZIR, Said;HAZMI, Yusri
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.741-750
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    • 2021
  • The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

경제사상의 변화 (공급측면 경제학의 시험) (The changes of economic though (The trial of supply-side economics))

  • 서홍석
    • 한국관광식음료학회지:관광식음료경영연구
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    • 제8권
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    • pp.89-121
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    • 1997
  • Many of the measures and policies advocated by supply-siders, such as lower taxation, less government intervention, more freedom from restrictive legislation and regulation, and the need for increased productivity can be found in writing the classical economist. Nor is supply-side economics a complete divorcement from Keynesian analysis. In both camps the objectives are the same-high level employment, stable prices and healthy economic growth, the means or suggestions for attaining the objectives, however, differ. Consequently, recommended economic policies and measures are different. keynesians rely primarily on the manipulation of effective demand to increase output and employment and to combat inflation. They assume ample resources to be available in order that supply will respond to demand. The supply-siders emphasize the need to increase savings, investment, productivity and output as a means of increasing income. Supply-siders assume that the increase in income will lead to an increase in effective demand. Keynesians suggest that savings, particularly those not invested, dampen economic activity. Supply-siders hold that savings, or at least an increase in after-tax income, stimulates work effort and provides funds for investment. Perhaps keynesians are guilty of assuming that most savings are not going to be invested, whereas supply-siders may erroneously assume that almost all savings will flow into investment and/ or stimulate work effort. In reality, a middle ground is possible. The supply-siders stress the need to increase supply, but Keynes did not preclude the possibility of increasing economic activity by working through the supply side. According to Keynes' aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework, a decrease in supply will increase output and employment. It must be remembered, however, that Keynes' aggregate supply is really a price. Lowering the price or cost of supply would there by result in higher profit and/ or higher output. This coincides with the viewpoint of supply-siders who want to lower the cost of production via various means for the purpose of increasing supply. Then, too, some of the means, such as tax cuts, tax credits and accelerated depreciation, recommended by suply-siders to increase productivity and output would be favored by Keynesians also as a means of increasing investment, curbing costs, and increasing effective demand. In fact, these very measures were used in the early 1960s in the United State during the years when nagging unemployment was plaguing the economy. Keynesians disagree with the supply-siders' proposals to reduce transfer payments and slow down the process of income redistribution, except in full employment inflationary periods. Keynesians likewise disagree with tax measures that favored business as opposed to individuals and the notion of shifting the base of personal taxation away from income and toward spending. A frequent criticism levied at supply-side economics is that it lacks adequate models and thus far has not been quantified to any great extent. But, it should be remembered that Keynesian economics originally was lacking in models and based on a number of unproved assumptions, such as, the stability of the consumption function with its declining marginal propensity to consume. Just as the economic catastrophe of the great depression of the 1930s paved the way for the application of Keynesian or demand-side policies, perhaps the frustrating and restless conditions of the 1970s and 1980s is an open invitation for the application of supply-side policies. If so, the 1980s and 1990s may prove to be the testing era for the supply-side theories. By the end of 1990s we should have better supply-side models and know much more about the effectiveness of supply-side policies. By that time, also, supply-side thinking may be more crystallized and we will learn whether it is something temporary that will fade away, be widely accepted as the new economics replacing Keynesian demand analysis, or something to be continued but melded or fused with demand management.

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케인즈의 고용 . 물가이론소고 (A Study on Keynese's Employment and Price Theory)

  • 박일근
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제8권12호
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 1985
  • The mainpoints of General Theory is 1) the mainspring of economic activity is effective demand which can expand or control in relation to supply as a result of spontaneous decision by customer or government. 2) change in effective demand Produce change in output and employment in the same direction 3) which given productivity of labour the Vice level depend on the money supply affect the in downward direction 4) change in the money supply affect the economy through the rates of interest 5) the only automatic mechanism through which the economy can adjust itself to a deficiency of effective demand is the long process which unemployment reduces wage rates and consequently the demand for money and interest rates, above summarized contents are General Theory frame-work. The neo-classical macro general equilibrium theory, which has been reconstructed subsequent to Keyneses critism is treated the neo-classical macro-general equilibrium theory which inherits the classical theories of labour market and the aggregate production function, on demand side, it introduce the Keyneses macro-general equilibrium theory, which function through flexible movement of prices, wage and interest. Nowadays, Keynes General Theory is being developed into new dimension i, e. the macro-disequilibrium theory, and adequacy, and appropriateness of the theory and its significant contributions to modern economics are being reinterpreted and substantiated.

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유통 상장기업의 현금정책에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Cash Policies of Retail Firms)

  • 손삼호
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine whether the cash policies of retail firms listed on Korean stock markets are consistent with the evidence provided in the study of Almeida et al. (2004). Liquidity management is an important issue for financially constrained firms relative to financially unconstrained firms. Because there are few sources of external funding, the optimal liquidity policies of financially constrained firms should reflect their own earnings or cash inflows to create opportunities for current and future real investments. According to this simple idea, we estimate the sensitivity of cash to cash flows and simply check whether the estimated sensitivity to cash flows of the cash retained by constrained retail firms is greater than that of the cash retained by unconstrained retail firms. Through this work, we aim to explain why the cash policies of the retail firms listed on the Korean stock markets differ from those of listed manufacturing enterprises. Research design, data, and methodology - To explain a firm's cash holdings, we use only three explanatory variables: earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), Tobin's q, and size. All the variables are defined as the value of the numerator divided by aggregate assets. Thanks to this definition, it is possible to treat all the sample firms as a single large firm. The sample financial data for this study are collected from the retail enterprises listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets from 1991 to 2013. We can obtain these data from WISEfn, the financial information company. This study's methodology has its origin in Keynes's simple idea of precautionary liquidity demand: When a firm faces financial constraints, cash savings from earnings or cash inflows become important from the corporate finance perspective. Following this simple idea, Almeida et al. (2004) developed their theoretical model and found empirical evidence that the sensitivity of cash to cash flows varies systematically according to different types of financing frictions. To find more empirical evidence for this idea, we examined the cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by Korean retail firms. Results - Through several robustness tests, we empirically showed that financially constrained Korean retail firms display significant positive propensity to save cash from earnings before interest and taxes, while the estimated cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by unconstrained retail firms is not significant. Despite the relatively low earnings of retail firms, their sensitivity is three times greater than that of manufacturing enterprises. This implies that Korean retail firms have greater intentions of facilitating future investments rather than current investments. Conclusions - The characteristics of the cash policies of Korean retail firms differ from those of manufacturing firms. This contrast may be attributable to industry-oriented policy planning, regulations, and institutional differences. However, the industrial policymakers should observe signals of the long-term growth options of retail firms based on their high propensity to save from their cash inflows.

칼레츠키 투자이론과 화폐·금융변수 (Kalecki's Investment Theory and Monetary and Financial Factors)

  • 조복현
    • 사회경제평론
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.119-154
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    • 2016
  • 칼레츠키는 투자이론을 전개하는 과정에서 화폐와 금융 변수가 매우 중요한 역할을 한다고 생각했었다. 그는 또한 고전파의 이론과는 달리 이자율이 화폐적 현상이며, 투자조달은 저축에 제약받지 않고 은행제도에 의해서 공급된다고 주장했다. 또한 부채가 증가할수록 채무자와 채권자의 위험도 커진다는 점을 강조했다. 그러나 칼레츠키는 그의 투자이론을 발전시키면서 '자본주의 경제 변동의 자동적인 메커니즘'을 설명하기 위해, 화폐 및 금융적 요소를 버리고 실제이윤과 저축과 같은 요소들만을 고려했다. 따라서 칼레츠키의 투자이론은 화폐 및 금융적 요소를 고려하고 있지 않다는 일반적인 평가가 이루어지고 있다. 이 논문은 칼레츠키의 이러한 분석방식에 대한 포스트 케인지언의 논의들을 살펴보고, 화폐와 금융적 요소를 다시 복원해 포함하는 칼레츠키언 투자이론을 구축한다. 이 칼레츠키언 투자함수는 칼레츠키가 강조했지만 무시했던 은행제도의 대출 의지, 신뢰의 위기를 반영하는 이자율, 위험 증가와 기업가 자본을 대표하는 부채비율 등을 포함하고 있다. 이 투자함수는 발전된 금융구조를 갖는 현실의 자본주의 경제에서 주기적으로 발생하는 과도한 투자와 과중한 부채, 위험의 증가와 투자와 이윤 감소, 금융위기 및 경기침체를 내포하는 투자결정 및 투자조달 메커니즘을 보다 잘 설명할 수 있게 만들 것이다.