• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic threshold

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Optimal Inflation Threshold and Economic Growth: Ordinal Regression Model Analysis

  • DINH, Doan Van
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates the relationship between the inflation rate and economic growth to find out the optimal inflation threshold for economic growth. Therefore, this study applied an ordinary least square model (OLS) and the ordinal regression model, and collected the time-series data from 1996 to 2017 to test the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the short-term and long-term. The sample fits the model and is statistically significant. The study showed that 96.6% of correlation between inflation rate and economic growth are close and 4.5% of optimal inflation threshold is appropriate for economic growth. It finds that the optimal inflation threshold is base to perform economic growth, besides the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy appropriately. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; have appropriate policies to regulate inflation to stimulate economic growth over the long term; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the optimal inflation threshold.

How Does Financial Development Impact Economic Growth in Pakistan?: New Evidence from Threshold Model

  • TARIQ, Rameez;KHAN, Muhammad Arshad;RAHMAN, Abdul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2020
  • This study examines the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in Pakistan using the threshold regression model for the period 1980-2017. We also employed quantile regression with 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 quantiles of conditional distribution. The quantile regression is based on minimizing of sum of squared residuals. The result indicates that economic growth responds positively to financial development when the level of financial development surpasses the threshold value of 0.151. However, when financial development lies below the threshold value (that is, 0.151), its impact on economic growth is negative. Thus, when financial development of Pakistan surpasses the threshold level, it contributes more towards economic growth since greater level of financial development contributes more to boosts economic growth. This finding reveals that economic growth reacts differently to financial development, and the relationship between financial development and economic growth is U-shaped in Pakistan. Among the other variables, physical capital, labor force, and government expenditure exert a positive effect on economic growth. Furthermore, inflation rate and trade openness have an insignificant impact on economic growth. The results of quantile regression also confirm the non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth in Pakistan. The finding of this study suggests revamping of financial sector policies in Pakistan.

Infrastructure-Growth Link and the Threshold Effects of Sub-Indices of Institutions

  • OGBARO, Eyitayo Oyewunmi;OLADEJI, Sunday Idowu
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study extends previous empirical work on the threshold effects of institutions on the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth. It does so by using three sub-indices of institutions as the threshold variable in place of aggregate index. This is with a view to determining the roles of the sub-indices in the nexus between infrastructure and economic growth. Research design, data and methodology: The analysis is based on a dynamic panel threshold regression model using a panel data set comprising 41 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa over the sample period of 1996-2015. Data are obtained from Ogbaro (2019). Results: The study finds that infrastructure exerts significant positive effects on economic growth below and above the threshold values of the three sub-indices, with higher effects above the threshold values. Results also show that on average, the Sub-Saharan African countries are not able to satisfy any of the threshold conditions, which accounts for their poor growth experience. Conclusion: The study concludes that countries with weak institutions do not benefit maximally from infrastructure development policies. The paper, therefore, recommends that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa need to focus on improving their institutional patterns if they are to reap the optimum benefits from their infrastructure development efforts.

Yield Loss Assessment and Determination of Economic Thresholds Limits against Soybean Anthracnose (콩탄저병의 피해 해석 및 요방제 수준 설정)

  • Moon, Youn-Gi;Lee, Jae-Hong;Choi, Jun-Keun;Kang, An-Seok;Han, Seong-Sook
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.133-137
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    • 2010
  • A field investigation was carried out for two years to analyze yield loss due to soybean anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum truncatum and to determine its economic threshold limit. Anthracnose severity in terms of % diseased pods was negatively correlated with yield, number of normal seeds per plant and number of pods per plant, and positively correlated with % abnormal seeds with correlation coefficients of -0.85, -0.78, -0.64, and 0.80, respectively. A simple linear regression model was obtained as Y=-1.7781X+164.22 with $R^2$=0.8092, when the soybean yields (Y) were predicted using anthracnose severity (X) as an independent variable. The yield levels could be predicted as high as 80.92%. Based on this equation, spray threshold without economic considerations was estimated as 6.9 in % pods infected with anthracnose. Economic threshold limit and economic spray threshold able to compensate the costs of fungicide sprays were determined as 11.9% and 9.5%, respectively.

Yield Loss Assessment and Economic Thresholds of Squash Powdery Mildew Caused by Sphaerotheca fuliginea (호박 흰가루병의 피해 해석 및 경제적 방제수준 설정)

  • Moon, Youn-Gi;Choi, Jun-Keun;Kang, An-Seok
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.285-289
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    • 2010
  • The experiments were carried out in fields for two years from 2008 to assess yield losses of squash due to powdery mildew caused by Sphaerotheca fuliginea and to determine its economic thresholds. Powdery mildew disease was first observed in late June, about 50 days after field-transplanting, progressed rapidly during late July to early August, and began to reduce from late August. Powdery mildew severity was negatively correlated with squash yields. A positive correlation was observed between fruit weight and % marketable fruits. A simple linear regression model was obtained as Y=-10.399 X + 6607.5 with $R^2$ = 0.9700 when squash yields (Y) was predicted using powdery mildew severity as an independent variable(X). Spray threshold for maximizing squash yields without economic considerations was estimated as 6.5% in terms of leaf lesion area with powdery mildew. Economic threshold and economic spray threshold able to compensate the costs of fungicide sprays were determined as 21.6% and 17.3% in leaf lesion area, respectively.

A Study on the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and the Absorptive Capacity of a Host Country Using Panel Threshold Regression (패널문턱회귀를 활용한 외국인 직접투자와 현지국 흡수능력의 관계 연구)

  • Cao, Thu Trang;Ji-Young Hwang;Yun-Seop Hwang;Cheon Yu
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2022
  • This study is designed to investigate the effect of inflow FDI on the host country's economic growth and the role of absorptive capacity in this relationship. Eight developing countries in East Asia, including Mongolia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, are analyzed. Year data from 2000 to 2018 are used. Based on the study of Hansen (1999), the panel threshold effect model is used, and human capital, R&D, and infrastructure are set as absorptive capacity by referring to Wang and Hwang (2013). The analysis results are as follows. It is confirmed that FDI has a positive effect on the economic growth of the host country, and absorption capacity strengthens the relationship between FDI and economic growth in a positive direction. At this time, it appears that a threshold exists for the moderating effect of the absorptive capacity. It presents useful implications for economic growth in developing countries.

Determination of Economic Threshold Level of Whitefly, Dialeuropora decempuncta (Quaintance and Baker) in Mulberry, Morus alba L.

  • Bandyopadhyay, U.K.;Santhakumar, M.V.;Saratchandra, B.;Das, K.K.
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.133-136
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    • 2002
  • Whitefly, Dialeuropora decempuncta (Quaintance rind Baker) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) has attained the major pest status in mulberry, causing 24% crop loss by sucking the leaf juice and manifesting leaf curl, chlorosis and sooty mould desease during monsoon season in West Bengal, India. The assessment of economic threshold revel is an essential component for formulating the management practices. Experiments were carried out by inoculating five different densities of whitefly viz.,10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 adults on covered mulberry plants in glass houses. From the findings, it was observed that irrespective of released density, no crop loss was observed in the initial period. But with the passing of days, the percent crop loss was increased rapidly. The linear relationship between percent crop loss and number of adults released was established to highlight the significance of economic threshold. The statistical analysis in the linear form of equation showed that initial population of 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 whiteflies/plant causes 3%, 12%, 21%, 30% and 40% crop loss in a period of 28 days which is equivalent to 57 kg, 247 kg, 437 kg, 626 kg and 816 kg leaf/acre. Execution of management practices (spray of 0.01% monocrotophos) are economical to the farmer whenever the loss is above 247 kg/acre, but below which application of control measures is not economical. From this study, it can be inferred that the economic threshold level far whitefly is 20 individuals/plant beyond which a farmer has to take appropriate control measures.

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Korea

  • HWANG, SUNJOO
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.31-56
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    • 2020
  • Does financial development contribute to economic growth? The literature finds that an expansion in financial resources is useful for economic growth if the degree of financial development is under a certain threshold; otherwise, the expansion is detrimental to growth. Almost every published study, however, considers country-panel data. Accordingly, the results are not directly applicable to the Korean economy. By examining Korean time-series data, this paper finds that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between the per capita real GDP growth rate and private credit (as a percentage of nominal GDP)-a well-known measure of quantitative financial development, where the threshold is 171.5%. This paper also finds that private credit is positively associated with economic growth if the share of household credit out of private credit is less than 46.9%; otherwise, private credit is negatively associated with economic growth. As of 2016, the ratio of private credit to GDP and the ratio of household credit to private credit are both higher than the corresponding thresholds, which implies that policymakers should place more emphasis on qualitative financial development than on a quantitative expansion of financial resources.

Establishment of Economic Threshold Caused by Rice Sheath Blight Disease severity (벼 잎집무늬마름병의 발생정도에 따른 경제적 방제수준 설정)

  • Shim, Hongsik;Choi, Hyo Won;Yeh, Wan-Hae;Lee, Yong-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.394-398
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    • 2015
  • This research was performed to establish economic threshold (ET) for rice sheath blight disease with the cultivar Odeabyeo. Total yield and yield components, such as the panicle number per hill, the spikelet per panicle, the percent ripened grain and the thousand grain weight were evaluated depending on the disease severity of sheath blight on rice, respectively. Significant negative correlation between the percent of diseased hill (PDH) and total yield was observed (r = -0.93). Moreover, negative correlation coefficients were found between PDH and spikelet per panicle, and percent ripened grain (r = -0.66 and -0.77, respectively). There were no correlations between PDH and the panical number per hill, and a thousand grain weight, respectively. In this study, economic threshold level on sheath blight disease on rice was established on 7.8% of PDH.

Establishment of Economic Threshold by Evaluation of Yield Component and Yield Damages Caused by Leaf Spot Disease of Soybean (콩 점무늬병(Cercospora sojina Hara) 피해해석에 의한 경제적 방제수준 설정)

  • Shim, Hongsik;Lee, Jong-Hyeong;Lee, Yong-Hwan;Myung, Inn-Shik;Choi, Hyo-Won
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.196-200
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    • 2013
  • This study was carried out to investigate yield loss due to soybean leaf spot disease caused by Cercospora sojina Hara and to determine the economic threshold level. The investigations revealed highly significant correlations between disease severity (diseased leaf area) and yield components (pod number per plant, total grain number per plant, total grain weight per plant, percent of ripened grain, weight of hundred seed, and yield). The correlation coefficients between leaf spot severity and each component were -0.90, -0.90, -0.92, -0.99, -0.90 and -0.94, respectively. The yield was inversely proportional to the diseased leaf area increased. The regression equation, yield prediction model, between disease severity (x) and yield (y) was obtained as y = -3.7213x + 354.99 ($R^2$ = 0.9047). Based on the yield prediction model, economic injury level and economic threshold level could be set as 3.3% and 2.6% of diseased leaf area of soybean.