• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic scenario simulation

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A Simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation for a Gyeongju Event (경주지역 발생 지진에 대한 지진손실예측 시뮬레이션)

  • Kang, Su-Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee;Suk, Bong-Chool;Yoo, Hai-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2008
  • Knowledge of expected losses in terms of physical, economic, and social damages due to a potential earthquake will be helpful in the effort to mitigate seismic hazards. In this study, losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in the Gyeongju area have been estimated using the deterministic method in HAZUS. The attenuation relation proposed by Sadigh et al.(1997) for site classes B, C, and D, which are assumed to represent the characteristics of the strong-motion attenuation in the Korean Peninsula, has been applied. Losses due to the hypothetical earthquake have been also calculated using other attenuation relationships to examine their roles in the loss estimation. The findings indicate differences among the estimates based on various attenuation relationships. Estimated losses of the Gyeongju area by a scenario earthquake using HAZUS should be seriously considered in the planning of disaster response and hazard mitigation.

Stability-based On-demand Multi-path Distance Vector Protocol for Edge Internet of Things

  • Dongzhi Cao;Peng Liang;Tongjuan Wu;Shiqiang Zhang;Zhenhu Ning
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.2658-2681
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    • 2023
  • In edge computing scenarios, IoT end devices play a crucial role in relaying and forwarding data to significantly improve IoT network performance. However, traditional routing mechanisms are not applicable to this scenario due to differences in network size and environment. Therefore, it becomes crucial to establish an effective and reliable data transmission path to ensure secure communication between devices. In this paper, we propose a trusted path selection strategy that comprehensively considers multiple attributes, such as link stability and edge cooperation, and selects a stable and secure data transmission path based on the link life cycle, energy level, trust level, and authentication status. In addition, we propose the Stability-based On-demand Multipath Distance Vector (STAOMDV) protocol based on the Ad hoc AOMDV protocol. The STAOMDV protocol implements the collection and updating of link stability attributes during the route discovery and maintenance process. By integrating the STAOMDV protocol with the proposed path selection strategy, a dependable and efficient routing mechanism is established for IoT networks in edge computing scenarios. Simulation results validate that the proposed STAOMDV model achieves a balance in network energy consumption and extends the overall network lifespan.

Techno-economic Analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment of a Green Ammonia Synthesis Process Under Various Ammonia Liquefaction Scenarios (암모니아 액화 시나리오에 따른 그린암모니아 합성 공정의 경제성 및 환경 영향도 평가)

  • Gunyoung Kim;Yinseo Song;Boram Gu;Kiho Park
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2024
  • In this study, two different scenarios for ammonia liquefaction in the green ammonia manufacturing process were proposed, and the economic-feasibility and environmental impact of each scenario were analyzed. The two liquefaction processes involved gas-liquid separation before cooling at high pressure (high pressure cooling process) or after decompression without the gas-liquid separation (low pressure cooling process). The high-pressure cooling process requires higher capital costs due to the required installation of separation units and heat exchangers, but it offers relatively lower total utility costs of 91.03 $/hr and a reduced duty of 2.81 Gcal/hr. In contrast, although the low-pressure cooling process is simpler and cost-effective, it may encounter operational instability due to rapid pressure drops in the system. Environmental impact assessment revealed that the high-pressure cooling process is more environmentally friendly than the low-pressure cooling process, with an emission factor of 0.83 tCO2eq less than the low-pressure cooling process, calculated based on power usage. Consequently, the outcomes of this study provide relevant scenario and a database for green ammonia synthesis process adaptable to various process conditions.

Examination of the Restructuring of Korean Economy: Simulation of the Multisector Model (한국경제(韓國經濟)의 구조변화(構造變化) 전망(展望): 다부문모형(多部門模型)의 모의실험(模擬實驗))

  • Kim, Jung-ho;Park, Jun-kyung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.155-187
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    • 1992
  • The Korean economy has sustained high growth rate for almost three decades, that have been associated with the rapid expansion of manufacturing industries. In the beginning stage of development, the high growth of the Korean economy has been based on improvements in productivity obtained by the economies of scale. In that period, the improvements in productivity could be secured by the economies of scale in the export-oriented industries which are the labor- and material-intensive industries. In the latter half of the 1980s, the Korean economy went through rapid transition. Now Korea is at another juncture in its development process, where economic restructuring is critical to sustain high growth. However, economic restructuring in the 1990s call for much more concerted effort than before, since changes in internal and external conditions have profoundly altered the environment for economic development. If Korea is to sustain high growth in the 1990s, it has to promote balanced economic and social development in coordination with the smooth facilitation of industrial restructuring. There are no inherent conflicts among the issues involved, so they can be resolved by restructuring the economy to facilitate, in a global context, the development of knowledge- and technology-intensive activities and to ensure that the benefts of growth are reflected of qualitative improvements in national living standards. In this paper, we examined a scenario of structural changes using a mid- and long-term multisector model, in order to understand the conditions needed for realizing the growth potential. This examination explains the important features of the development course and policy directions that will help sustain high growth in the 1990s.

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An Analysis of Economic Impacts of Korea-US FTA on Hallabong Market (한·미 FTA가 한라봉 시장에 미치는 경제적 파급영향 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Ryun;Kim, Hwa-Nyeon;Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.725-731
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed the impact of increasing orange imports on the domestic fruit markets, focusing on the period January to May when oranges were imported and sold intensively after implementation of the Korea-US FTA. In this study, only citrus fruits that compete with U.S. oranges were limited to domestic fruits; of these, Hallabong, which is consistent with consumption of U.S. oranges, was selected as an analysis target. A dynamic recursive simulation model was established to evaluate the ex-post effects of the Korea-U.S. FTA, and to conduct mid and long-term forecasts for the Hallabong market. In addition, major policy simulations were performed on the Hallabong market to assess the effect of each scenario. The ex-post impact evaluation reveals that between December and February, Hallabong had no effect on the seasonal tariff of oranges. However, from 2012 to 2017, the actual import decreased by 21.9 billion won annually due to the TRQ, with the accumulated 6-year decrease being 131.5 billion won. Major policy simulation analysis shows that the change in the unit cost of import due to the U.S orange crop and the increase of Hallabong export will help in expanding the market, and thus effectively increase income.

Scenario-based Flood Disaster Simulation of the Rim Collapse of the Cheon-ji Caldera Lake, Mt. Baekdusan (시나리오에 따른 백두산 천지의 외륜산 붕괴에 의한 홍수재해 모의)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Eun-Kyeong;Kim, Sung-Wook
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.501-510
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    • 2014
  • Volcanic eruptions alone may lead to serious natural disasters, but the associated release of water from a caldera lake may be equally damaging. There is both historical and geological evidence of the past eruptions of Mt. Baekdusan, and the volcano, which has not erupted for over 100 years, has recently shown signs of reawakening. Action is required if we are to limit the social, political, cultural, and economic damage of any future eruption. This study aims to identify the area that would be inundated following a volcanic flood from the Cheon-Ji caldera lake that lies within Mt. Baekdusan. A scenario-based numerical analysis was performed to generate a flood hydrograph, and the parameters required were selected following a consideration of historical records from other volcanoes. The amount of water at the outer rim as a function of time was used as an upper boundary condition for the downstream routing process for a period of 10 days. Data from the USGS were used to generate a DEM with a resolution of 100 m, and remotely sensed satellite data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to show land cover and use. The simulation was generated using the software FLO-2D and was superposed on the remotely sensed map. The results show that the inundation area would cover about 80% of the urban area near Erdaobaihezhen assuming a 10 m/hr collapse rate, and 98% of the area would be flooded assuming a 100 m/hr collapse rate.

A Study for Small and Medium Warehouses Automation Framework (중소규모 보관창고의 자동화를 위한 프레임워크 연구)

  • Shin, Jae-Young;Kim, Hwan-sung;Park, Jong-Wwon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.74-75
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    • 2017
  • The operations of the warehouses are labor intensive. Automation of the warehouse is made by efforts to shorten the work time and reduce the cost according to the change of the production form of the company and the buyer's demand. Storage warehouses vary in size and shape, and equipment and facilities used in storage warehouses vary according to purpose and use. In order to automate storage, it is necessary to introduce an operating system, which varies depending on the type of equipment and operation policy. In this paper, we review the requirements for the automation of small and medium-sized storage warehouses, and classify the equipment selection and operating system options into effective scenarios to introduce an effective automation system. Therefore, simulation is performed for each scenario, and the effect of automation is examined, and the effect of automation is verified through economic analysis through cost for automation introduction.

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A Study on the Profitable Urban Park Model using Smart Street Light System (스마트 가로등 시스템을 적용한 수익형 도시공원모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hee;Cho, Han-Bo;Kim, Tae-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2012
  • Recently, as the social interest increase has been focused on new renewable energy system to build-up sustainable urban planning system, the related studies have been actively conducting. As well as in other areas, the construction area, which accounts for over 40% of the total energy consumption, clearly showed this tendency. Whereas, various landscape facilities applying renewable energy equipments have been manufactured and installed, systematic study available for planning and designing is rarely found in Korea. This study is expected to contribute to the landscape planning and designing by quantifying the energy-efficient and economic advantages of the renewable energy system for landscape facilities. For this purpose, the analysis on the energy-efficiency and economic values under the scenario that the current fossil power supply for the streetlights in urban parks in Seoul, Daegu, and Incheon were replaced by photovoltaic power generation were performed through RETScreen$^{(R)}$ a clean energy simulation program based on the NASA Satellite Meteorological Data. As a result, the generated power and the economic values vary depending on the climatic features of the appointed cities. This study will be used to build up the effective decision-making in applying the clean renewable system to the plan and design of landscaping.

Safety Assessment of Near Surface Disposal Facility for Low- and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste (LILW) through Multiphase-Fluid Simulations Based on Various Scenarios (다양한 시나리오 기반 유체거동 수치모사를 통한 중·저준위 방사성 폐기물 표층처분시설 안전성 평가)

  • Jeong, Jina;Kown, Mijin;Park, Eungyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.131-147
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, the safety of the near surface disposal facility for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) is examined based on the fluid-flow simulation model. The effects of the structural design and hydrological properties of the disposal system are quantitatively evaluated by estimating the flux of infiltrated water at the boundary of the structure. Additionally, the safety margins of the disposal system, especially for the cover layer and vault, are determined by applying the various scenarios with consideration of possible facility designs and precipitation conditions. The overall results suggest that the disposal system used in this study is sufficiently suitable for the safe operation of the facility. In addition, it is confirmed that the soundness of both the cover layer and the vault have great impact on the safety of the facility. Especially, as shown in the vault degradation scenario, capability of the concrete barrier of the vault make more positive contribution on the safe operation of the facility compared to that of the cover layer.

Impacts of Delivery Vehicle Routing on Different Inventory Strategies and Network Configurations (재고전략 및 네트워크 구성에 따른 배송차량의 운영특성 연구)

  • Won, Min-Su;Gang, Gyeong-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.91-106
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    • 2010
  • Recently, interest in supply chain management is rising along with the increasing oil prices and traffic congestion. In particular, people started studying the issue, but realized that advantageous strategies for suppliers and retailers are not always advantageous to a carrier. Therefore, in this study the atuhors set up a simulation scenario to understand delivery vehicle routing problems under various inventory policies, namely Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and Periodic Order Quantity (POQ) and network configurations. First, the authors made a virtual supply chain. Then they analyzed characteristics of delivery vehicle routing under various inventory policies (EOQ and POQ) and network configurations. As a result, the POQ inventory policy decreases the number of vehicles, the number of drivers, and the service time of vehicles. Also, the centralized network increases the load factor of vehicles and decreases the service time of vehicles. In other words, the centralized network and the POQ inventory policy are better for the carrier. These results show a savings of 15,556,806 won ($13,389.10) in a month: a reduction of 17%.