• 경영과학
• /
• 제21권3호
• /
• pp.129-147
• /
• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.677-682
• /
• 2020

To investigate the nexus between urban population, gross capital formation, and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yearly data was collected from the World Bank for the period 1974- 2018. Basic statistics test and correlation matrix was used to investigate the causal effect among the tested parameters, followed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, co-integration analysis by Johansen test after that Vector Auto-Correction Model for both short-run and long-run and finally the Granger-Causality tests. Result of unit root test analysis shows that the urban population became stationary at I (0) level while economic growth and gross capital formation became stationary at I (1). Johansen co-integration analysis indicates that there is presence of both long-run and short-run relationship between the three variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The result of the VECM Model reflects that both economic growth and gross capital formation have a negative impact on urban population in the short run. According to the Granger-Causality tests, there is unidirectional causality with the urban population by both gross capital formation and economic growth. Also, the result of the Granger Causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality between economic growth and gross capital formations.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제22권4호
• /
• pp.507-529
• /
• 2018

This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제25권12호
• /
• pp.83-91
• /
• 2020

본 연구에서는 DBpia에 등록된 코로나19 관련 논문을 대상으로 연구 토픽을 밝히고 연구 변화 추세를 검토한다. 잠재 디리슐레 할당(Latent Dirichlet Allocation) 알고리즘을 적용한 결과, 7개의 연구 토픽을 도출하였고, 각 토픽은 "International Dynamics", "Technology & Security", "Psychological Impact", "Biomedical-Related", "Economic Impact", "Online Education", "Religion-Related"에 관한 내용이었다. 또한 다범주 로짓모형을 사용하여 연구 토픽의 추세 변화를 살펴본 결과, 2020년 6월 전에는 국제적 역학관계 및 생물 의학 관련 논문이 주를 이루었다면, 이후에는 다양한 분야로 연구 주제가 확대되었다. 특히 경제적인 영향, 온라인 교육, 심리적인 영향에 관한 연구가 꾸준히 증가함을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 향후 코로나19 관련 공동 연구의 가이드 라인을 제시하고, 활발한 연구 활동을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Current Photovoltaic Research
• /
• 제11권4호
• /
• pp.134-143
• /
• 2023

Efforts are being made to respond to global warming. Interest in and demand for the private sector-led RE100 campaign is also increasing. Self-built solar power generation, one of the implementation tools for RE100, is not expanding. However, it can be an economical means of implementation in the long run. In this study, we intend to analyze the impact on the optimal ratio of self-solar power generation using HOMER simulation. OPR defines the optimal solar power generation ratio and looks into what changes there are in the optimal solar power ratio when self-power consumption increases and external power purchase price changes. As a result, the optimal rate of self-solar power generation has a low impact even if self-power consumption increases. As the external power unit price increases, the optimal ratio increases, and at a power unit price of 100 KRW/kWh, OPR is 24%; at 200 KRW/kWh OPR is 31%; and at 300 KRW/kWh OPR is 34%. This shows that the electricity price replaced during the life cycle has a high impact on the economic feasibility of solar power generation. However, when the external power unit price reached a certain level, the increase in OPR decreased. This shows that it is difficult for domestic companies to achieve RE100 based on the economic feasibility of solar energy alone. Therefore, efforts are needed to supply renewable energy in the public sector.

• 한국경제지리학회지
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.55-71
• /
• 2023

본 논문은 도시성장, 신 도시개발, 개발업자, 도시계획가, 주택, 부동산 시장, 커뮤니티 계획, 커뮤니티 자금 조달, 지방 정부, 토지 이용 계획, 공공시설, 개발 비용에 초점을 맞추어 개발부담금 산정에 대해 이론적으로 고찰하였다. 개발부담금을 누가 부담해야 하는지에 대한 많은 질문이 실증적 분석을 기반으로 한 답변을 요구한다. 이러한 질문에는 토지 소유자가 부담하는 정도, 다양한 수준의 개발부담금이 커뮤니티의 사회경제적 혼합에 미치는 영향, 지역 내 재정 혜택의 분배 등이 포함된다. 더 광범위한 질문은 개발부담금의 차별적 부과가 도시 및 지역 형태에 어떻게 영향을 미치는가 그리고 개발부담금이 지역 성장을 보다 효율적으로 또는 덜 효율적으로 만드는가에 관한 것이다. 누가 개발부담금을 궁극적으로 지불하는가? 시장이 개발부담금에 어떻게 반응하는지에 대한 실증적 평가는 매우 부족하지만, 전반적으로 거주자(주민과 사용자)가 개발부담금의 대부분을 지불하는 것으로 알려져 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.693-702
• /
• 2020

The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.

• Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.71-79
• /
• 2020

This paper uses super-efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index to evaluate the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) values of the nine western provinces along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" for the period from 2000 to 2015, and analyses the influencing factors of the CEE. The major findings of this study are the following: (1) the overall CEE of the nine western provinces is not high, and there are significant inter-provincial differences in the CEE. Meanwhile, the provinces with higher levels of economic development generally have higher CEE. (2) The annual total factor productivity (TFP) of the nine western provinces, which is mainly determined by technological change, is greater than 1. Moreover, the total average growth rate of the TFP is 15.5%. (3) The CEE of the nine western provinces is not spatially dependent. In addition, the urbanization, openness, use of energy-saving technologies and research and development (R&D) investment have a significant positive impact on the CEE values, while the industrial structure, foreign direct investment, fixed asset investment, government expenditure levels and energy structure have a significant negative impact on the CEE. Among them, R&D investment is the primary factor in promoting the development of CEE, and the government expenditure has the greatest negative impact on the CEE.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제4권4호
• /
• pp.61-66
• /
• 2017

Environmental awareness and its relation to the development of economy has garnered increased attention in recent years. Researchers, over the years, have argued that sustainable development warrants for minimizing environmental degradation since one depends on the other. This study analyzes the relationship between environmental degradation (carbon emission taken as proxy for degradation), economic growth, total energy consumption and industrial production index growth in Bangladesh from year 1998 to 2013. This study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model and variance decomposition of VAR to analyze the effect of these variables on carbon emission and vice-versa. The findings of VAR model suggest that industrial production and GDP per capita has significant relationship with carbon emission. Further analysis through variance decomposition shows carbon emission has consistent impact on industrial production over time, whereas, industrial production has high impact on emission in the short run which fades in the long run which is consistent with Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Carbon emission rising along with GDP per capita and at the same time having low impact in the long run on industrial index indicates there may be other sources of pollution introduced with the rise in income of the economy over time.

• 농업과학연구
• /
• 제49권1호
• /
• pp.31-43
• /
• 2022

The global trade environment is rapidly changing. The spread of COVID-19 promotes digitalization, and online transactions are becoming the new normal. Currently, Korea is actively introducing information and communication technology (ICT) that uses the internet of things (IoT) in relation to agriculture. However, few studies have analyzed the impact of digitalization on trade in the agricultural sector. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine how the introduction of digital technology can affect the economy and trade of Korea. In this study, we estimate the impact of introducing digital technologies using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results of this analysis indicate that the GDP could increase by 3.82% to 10.53%. Also, agricultural production and trade according to the model will significantly increase to 8.67% and 5.72%, respectively, through a productivity increase from Blockchain, IoT, and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, despite logistics inefficiencies. Although the effects of digitalization could be significant, farmers are still struggling to introduce digital technologies, stemming from the fact that government support systems are concentrated in only a few sub-sectors. In this regard, support in this area must be expanded and diversified according to the current environment of agriculture in Korea.