• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.87-94
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• 1995

At both international and national levels, such as in the Rio Declaration and the EU's Fifth Environmental Action Plan, governments have committed themselves to the adoption of the precautionary principle (UNCED 1992, CEC 1992). These commitments mean that the existence of uncertainty in appraising policies and proposals for development should be acknowledged. Uncertainty arise in both the prediction of impacts and in the evaluation of their significance, particularly of those cumulative impacts which are individually insignificant but cumulatively damaging. The EC network of EIA experts, stated at their last meeting in Athens that indirect effects and the treatment of uncertainty are one of the main deficiencies of current EIA practice. Uncertainties in decision-making arise where choices have been made in the development of the policy or proposal, such as the selection of options, the justification for that choice, and the selection of different indicators to comply with different regulatory regimes. It is also likely that a weighting system for evaluating significance will have been used which may be implicit rather than explicit. Those involved in decision-making may employ different tolerances of uncertainty than members of the public, for instance over the consideration of the worst-case scenario. Possible methods for dealing with these uncertainties include scenarios, sensitivity analysis, showing points of view, decision analysis, postponing decisions and graphical methods. An understanding of the development of cumulative environmental impacts affords not only ecologic but also socio-economic investigations. Since cumulative impacts originate mainly in centres of urban or industrial development, in particular an analysis of future growth effects that might possibly be induced by certain development impacts. Not least it is seen as an matter of sustainability to connect this issue with ecological research. The serious attempt to reduce the area of uncertainty in environmental planning is a challenge and an important step towards reliable planning and sustainable development.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.237-261
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• 2006

Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has become an essential point on which my R&D management system should be based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe change in competition environment, and so on. In this paper a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.32-35
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• 2011

The economic value of a wind farm project is influenced by various risk factors such as wind power output and electricity market price. In particular, there is uncertainty in the economic evaluation of a wind farm project due to uncertain wind power outputs, which are fluctuated by weather factors such as wind speed, and volatile electricity market prices. This paper presents a systematic method to assess the economic value and payback period of a wind farm project using Least Square Monte-Carlo (LSMC) simulation. Numerical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed economic assessment method for a wind farm project.

• Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.39-42
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• 2003

중금속으로 오염된 폐광산 주변부나 유류누출로 인한 토양오염 등과 같은 오염부지에 대한 환경조사는 그 결과를 토대로 환경계획이나 정책이 수립되므로 의사결정의 기초가 된다. 이때, 의사결정의 타당성은 오염부지 조사결과 오염도가 얼마나 정확하게 측정되었느냐에 따라 달리 평가되어 진다. 그러므로 이와 같은 환경조사는 측정결과의 불확실성이 감소되도록 정밀한 시료채취방법이나 분석방법을 고안하여 적용해야 한다. (중략)

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-25
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• 2022

East Asia's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force in 2022 as the world's largest free trade agreement. RCEP was concluded, signed and brought into force in the face of major international uncertainty and is a significant boost to the global trading system. RCEP brings Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand into the same agreement with the ten member ASEAN group at its centre. It keeps markets open and updates trade and investment rules in East Asia, a major centre of global economic activity, at a time of rising protectionism when the WTO itself is under threat. The agreement builds on ASEAN's free trade agreements and strengthens ASEAN centrality. One of the pillars of RCEP is an economic cooperation agenda which has its antecedents in ASEAN's approach to bringing along its least developed members and builds on the experience of capacity building in APEC and technical cooperation under the ASEAN Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. There is an opportunity to create a framework that facilitates deeper economic cooperation that involves experience-sharing, extending RCEP's rules and membership at the same time as strengthening political cooperation. The paper suggests some areas that might be best suited to cooperation - that is confidence and trust building instead of or before negotiation - and discusses how non-members may be engaged and the membership expanded. Options such as multilateralising provisions and becoming a platform for policy convergence and coordinating unilateral reforms are canvassed.

• Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.589-593
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• 2018

In this paper, an economic evaluation with the uncertainty analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method was performed for the glycerol steam reforming to produce $H_2$ at a capacity of $300m^3h^{-1}$. Fluctuations in a unit $H_2$ production cost were identified based on the variation of key economic factors at ${\pm}10-{\pm}40%$ and the probability of 30.9% was obtained for a previously reported unit $H_2$ production cost of 5.10 $ $kgH{_2}^{-1}$. In addition, fluctuations in the B/C ratio were obtained by varying the fixed capital investment (${\pm}20%$), cost of manufacturing (${\pm}20%$), revenue (${\pm}20%$), and discount rate (2-10%) and the probability ranging from 17 to 55% was observed to meet a minimum B/C ratio of 1 for the economic feasibility of the glycerol steam reforming to produce $H_2$.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.396-400
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• 2007

Various ways of automated guideway transit construction are being planned recently owing to the policies of the national government and local municipalities as well as increasing investment from the private sector. Particularly, the increase in the private investment is increasing greatly in SOC (Social Overhead Cost). This trend of promoting private sector investment must be conducted on the basis of a thorough analysis of the economic feasibility of the project from the government and construction companies in the private sector. In other words, an accurate cost analysis of initial investment cost (Construction cost), maintenance/repair cost, profit making through the operation of the concerned facilities, cost of dissolution, etc. in terms of the life cycle is very much in need. Nevertheless, the analysis of uncertainty factors and its probabilistic theory are in need of development so that they can be used in the analysis of the economic feasibility of a construction project. First of all, the actual studies on maintenance/repair cost of automated guideway transit are scarce as of yet, prohibiting an accurate computation of the cost and its economic analysis. Accordingly, this study focused on the uncertainty analysis of the economic feasibility for civil engineering structures among automated guideway transit construction projects based on the rapidly increasing investment on such structures from the private sector. For this research purpose, a cost classification system for the automated guideway transit is proposed, first of all, and the data On the cost cycle of the civil structure facilities and their unit cost are collected and analyzed. Then, the uncertainty in the cost is analyzed from the perspective of LCC. In consideration of the current status with almost no. studies on maintenance/repair of such facilities, it is expected that the cost classification system and the uncertainty analysis technique proposed in this study will greatly enhance LCC analysis and economic feasibility studies for automated guideway transit projects in the future.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1501-1510
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• 2014

Low voltage direct current (LVDC) distribution system is a suitable techno-economic candidate which can create an innovative solution for distribution network development with respect to rural electrification. This research focuses on the use of LVDC distribution system to replace some of KEPCO's existing traditional medium voltage alternating current (MVAC) distribution network for rural electrification in South Korea. Considering the technical and economic risks and benefits involved in such project, a comparative techno-economic analysis on the LVDC and the MVAC distribution networks is conducted using economic assessment method such as the net present value (NPV) on a discounted cash flow (DCF) basis as well as the sensitivity analysis technique. Each would play a role in an economic performance indicator and a measure of uncertainty and risk involved in the project. In this work, a simulation model and a computational tool are concurrently developed and employed to aid the techno-economic analysis, evaluation, and estimation of the various systems efficiency and/or performance.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.271-280
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• 2012

The study aims to analyze economic viability of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle, an innovative technology to utilize clean coal effectively and efficiently in the era of energy crisis. The study is conducted to evaluate business value of 300 MW IGCC demonstration plant technology development based on binomial option, in consideration of uncertainty of fuel price. Binomial option is one of the real option valuation methods, which is ideally suited to irreversible decision making under uncertainty. With this analysis, it shows that investment value is higher compared with economic evaluation based on discounted cash flow, since this method can measure quantity. As a result, this study is proved to be economically feasible, which have a positive impact on the next generation of IGCC and the connection with Carbon Capture and Storage.

• Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.206-207
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• 2001