• 제목/요약/키워드: Economic Uncertainty

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Integral nuclear data validation using experimental spent nuclear fuel compositions

  • Gauld, Ian C.;Williams, Mark L.;Michel-Sendis, Franco;Martinez, Jesus S.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.1226-1233
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    • 2017
  • Measurements of the isotopic contents of spent nuclear fuel provide experimental data that are a prerequisite for validating computer codes and nuclear data for many spent fuel applications. Under the auspices of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and guidance of the Expert Group on Assay Data of Spent Nuclear Fuel of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety, a new database of expanded spent fuel isotopic compositions has been compiled. The database, Spent Fuel Compositions (SFCOMPO) 2.0, includes measured data for more than 750 fuel samples acquired from 44 different reactors and representing eight different reactor technologies. Measurements for more than 90 isotopes are included. This new database provides data essential for establishing the reliability of code systems for inventory predictions, but it also has broader potential application to nuclear data evaluation. The database, together with adjoint based sensitivity and uncertainty tools for transmutation systems developed to quantify the importance of nuclear data on nuclide concentrations, are described.

INVESTMENT EVALUATION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUTURE PROJECTS USING BINOMIAL REAL OPTION MODEL

  • Qiyu Qian;Xueqing Wang;Charles Y.J. Cheah
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.563-572
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    • 2007
  • Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

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Analysis of Control Element Assembly Withdrawal at Full Power Accident Scenario Using a Hybrid Conservative and BEPU Approach

  • Kajetan Andrzej Rey;Jan Hruskovic;Aya Diab
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.3787-3800
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    • 2023
  • Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) scenarios require special attention using advanced simulation techniques due to their complexity and importance for nuclear power plant (NPP) safety. While the conservative approach has traditionally been used for safety analysis, it may lead to unrealistic results which calls for the use of best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach, especially with the current advances in computational power which makes the BEPU analysis feasible. In this work an Uncontrolled Control Element Assembly (CEA) Withdrawal at Full Power accident scenario is analyzed using the BEPU approach by loosely coupling the thermal hydraulics best-estimate system code (RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4) to the statistical analysis software (DAKOTA) using a Python interface. Results from the BEPU analysis indicate that a realistic treatment of the accident scenario yields a larger safety margin and is therefore encouraged for accident analysis as it may enable more economic and flexible operation.

The Primary Process and Key Concepts of Economic Evaluation in Healthcare

  • Kim, Younhee;Kim, Yunjung;Lee, Hyeon-Jeong;Lee, Seulki;Park, Sun-Young;Oh, Sung-Hee;Jang, Suhyun;Lee, Taejin;Ahn, Jeonghoon;Shin, Sangjin
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.415-423
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    • 2022
  • Economic evaluations in the healthcare are used to assess economic efficiency of pharmaceuticals and medical interventions such as diagnoses and medical procedures. This study introduces the main concepts of economic evaluation across its key steps: planning, outcome and cost calculation, modeling, cost-effectiveness results, uncertainty analysis, and decision-making. When planning an economic evaluation, we determine the study population, intervention, comparators, perspectives, time horizon, discount rates, and type of economic evaluation. In healthcare economic evaluations, outcomes include changes in mortality, the survival rate, life years, and quality-adjusted life years, while costs include medical, non-medical, and productivity costs. Model-based economic evaluations, including decision tree and Markov models, are mainly used to calculate the total costs and total effects. In cost-effectiveness or costutility analyses, cost-effectiveness is evaluated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which is the additional cost per one additional unit of effectiveness gained by an intervention compared with a comparator. All outcomes have uncertainties owing to limited evidence, diverse methodologies, and unexplained variation. Thus, researchers should review these uncertainties and confirm their robustness. We hope to contribute to the establishment and dissemination of economic evaluation methodologies that reflect Korean clinical and research environment and ultimately improve the rationality of healthcare policies.

Functioning of Economic Systems in the Context of Their Potential Development in the Conditions of Circular Economy

  • Pohrebniak, Anna;Petrashko, Liudmyla;Dovgopol, Nina;Ovsiuchenko, Yurii;Berveno, Oksana
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.309-315
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of the article is to analyze the functioning of economic systems in the context of the development of their potential in a circular economy. It is determined that the functioning of economic systems to ensure their sustainability should meet modern challenges and provide for the formation of competitive institutional architecture, the introduction of structural and regulatory innovations, the transition to an innovative model of development. The specific principles of functioning of economic systems include openness, nonlinearity, multivectority, dynamism, emergence, uncertainty about the development of economic processes. It is substantiated that the linear nature of development and equilibrium are not dominant in the functioning of economic systems, and increasing the level of economic efficiency should go hand in hand with minimizing the activities of enterprises, which necessitates the use of circular economy. The main prerequisites for the transition to a circular economy are analyzed. It is determined that the basic concept of the circular economy involves the development of a system of production and consumption, which is based on processing, reuse, repair, product sharing, change of consumption patterns and new business models and systems. The main elements of the circular economy include: a closed cycle, the use of renewable energy sources, systems thinking. The correlation of the principles of sustainable development and the peculiarities of the application of the circular economy is analyzed. It is determined that the circular economy contrasts with the traditional linear economic model, which is based on the model of "take-do-consume-throw away". The advantages and disadvantages due to the use of the principles of circular economy are given. Based on the study, steps are identified to accelerate the transition from a linear economy to a circular economy.

A Study on Economic Evaluation of SNG Project using Real Option Valuation Model (실물옵션을 이용한 SNG 사업투자의 경제성 평가 연구)

  • Kang, Seung Jin;Hong, Jin Pyo
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.319-335
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    • 2014
  • This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

Cybercrime in the Economic Space: Psychological Motivation and Semantic-Terminological Specifics

  • Matveev, Vitaliy;Eduardivna, Nykytchenko Olena;Stefanova, Nataliia;Khrypko, Svitlana;Ishchuk, Alla;Ishchuk, Olena;Bondar, Tetiana
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2021
  • The article reveals the essence of cybercrime, approaches to understanding this concept, classification of cybercrime, and other illegal acts in this area. The concept of cybercrime has multi-discourse nature and a certain legal uncertainty. Cybercrimes, their forms and types are analyzed in the economic context. The research vocabulary of the economic industry is defined. The scope and content of concepts denoted by the terms of the sphere covered by cybercrime are studied, and its types and forms are analyzed. The article studies problems, achievements, and prospects of resisting and combating cybercrime during the development of the civil information society and Ukraine's entry into the global information space. The study focuses on the economic motivation of most cybercrimes since some material benefit from the fact of cyber offenses is assumed directly or indirectly.

E-commerce Readiness, Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs), and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation

  • Anasuya Barik;Sidheswar Panda
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.246-260
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    • 2023
  • With the advent of COVID-19, the world economy has undergone enormous losses and unprecedented crises. Moreover, this pandemic has put a significant effect on all business organizations, comprising the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) sector. MSMEs have been continuing to develop business strategies and are eager to compete in the market. The COVID-19 pandemic has shifted the full focus of MSMEs from 'business growth' to 'business survival' worldwide. E-commerce readiness plays a crucial role in a time of uncertainty and crisis during COVID-19 and affects the durability and sustainability of the business. This study attempts to study the readiness of online business and "E-commerce" adoption of MSMEs and its contribution to economic growth by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative techniques in the case of India. We use content analysis to determine the readiness of online business and Ecommerce in the post COVID-19 period. The result highlights the specific issues of this sector such as the shortage of resources and disruptions in the supply chain & logistical issues during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative analysis discloses that almost half of the respondents adopt online platforms along with additional challenges to sustain their business during the pandemic. This study utilizes annual time series data for the period from 1973-74 to 2017-18 to understand the long-run relationship between India's GDP and MSMEs units. By utilizing the co-integration technique, this study reveals that there is a long-run relationship between MSME units and the economic growth of this country.

Optimization of Contaminated Land Investigation based on Different Fitness-for-Purpose Criteria (조사목적별 기준에 부합하는 오염부지 조사방법의 최적화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jong-Chun Lee;Michael H. Ramsey
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2003
  • Investigations on the contaminated lands due to heavy metals from mining activities or hydrocarbons from oil spillage for example, should be planned based on specific fitness-for-purpose criteria(FFP criteria). A FFP criterion is site specific or varies with situation, based on which not only the data quality but also the decision quality can be determined. The limiting factors on the qualities can be, for example, the total budget for the investigation, regulatory guidance or expert's subjective fitness-for-purpose criterion. This paper deals with planning of investigation methods that can satisfy each suggested FFP criterion based on economic factors and the data quality. To this aim, a probabilistic loss function was applied to derive the cost effective investigation method that balances the measurement uncertainty, which estimates the degree of the data quality, with the decision quality. In addition, investigation planning methods when the objectives of investigations do not lie in the classification of the land but simply in producing the estimation of the mean concentration of the contaminant at the site(e.g. for the use in risk assessment), were also suggested. Furthermore, the efficient allocation of resources between sampling and analysis was also devised. These methods were applied to the two contaminated sites in the UK to test the validity of each method.

Foresight study on the Overseas Export of Nuclear Power Plants (시나리오 기반 미래원전산업의 환경변화 전망 및 수출전략 도출)

  • Hwang, Byung Yong;Choi, Han Lim;Lee, Yong Suk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

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