• 제목/요약/키워드: Economic Estimation

검색결과 1,206건 처리시간 0.03초

Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

  • Pyo, Dong-Jin
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2017
  • This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea

  • Jung, Yongseung
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.409-427
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    • 2019
  • This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

베이지언 확률프론티어 기법을 이용한 딸기 및 토마토 친환경재배의 효율성 분석 (A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Estimation of Efficiencies for Strawberry and Tomato Farming : Effect of Environmentally Friendly Farming)

  • 박호정;양승룡
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.355-368
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    • 2016
  • There are growing interests in environmental friendly cultivation for the matter of health concern. This study analyzes an economic efficiency of strawberry and tomato farming by considering the role of environmentally friendly cultivation. The Database of Rural Development Administration is used for strawberry and tomato farming households. We adopt a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to resolve a small sample property of the data. Empirical finding is that environmentally friendly cultivation improves the revenue of farming but the effect on net profit is not conclusive which calls for future research.

팔당호 수질개선에 대한 소비자 지불의사액 추정 (Estimation of WTP for Water Quality Improvements in Paldang Reservoir Using Contingent Valuation)

  • 김봉구;조용성;곽재은
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.433-459
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    • 2001
  • The water quality of Paldang reservoir now grades the third class water based on COD criterion, meaning that it is no longer suitable for drinking. This study attempted to estimate the economic value of water quality improvement in Paldang reservoir using CVM. The survey used payment card format to measure the willingness to pay of the questionnaire respondents for the improvement of water quality and also factors that affect the WTP. The survey showed that men rather than women, those had higher income and paid more water supply charges, those who lived in the area for a shorter period of time, those who do not use city water for drinking, had willingness to pay more. The WTP was estimated 4,952 to 5,497 won on a monthly average. The economic value of the improvement of the water quality of Paldang reservoir was estimated between 344.2~382.1 billion won on an annual basis.

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제조업 일별 전력 사용량을 활용한 일일전력경기지수(DEBI) 개발 (Development of a Daily Electricity Business Index by using the Electricity Daily Data of the Manufacturing Sector)

  • 오승환;박성근
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2016
  • Electricity sales are directly measured from individual consumers, which could minimize the time gap between data collection and public announcement. Furthermore, industrial electricity sales are highly linked with production and output. Therefore, industrial electricity consumption can be used to track production and output in real time. By using the high-frequency data of industrial electricity sales, this study develops the daily electricity business index (DEBI) to capture the daily economic status. The steps used to formulate DEBI are as follows: (1)selection of the explanatory variables and period, (2) amendment of the seasonal adjustment to eliminate daily temperature and effective day effects, (3) estimation of the weighted value via variables by using PCA, (4) calculation of DEBI and commencement of validation tests. Our empirical analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis show that DEBI is highly related to existing economic indices.

철도산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석 (A Study of Economic Value Estimation of Korea Railroad Industry)

  • 이순철;유재균;한원용
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2004
  • This study measures the investment effects of railroad industries on Korean economics, using the table of industry relation analysis. Until now, few studies have analyzed the economic effects of railroad in Korea so that this study can have a big implication for transportation policies in making decisions on its investment level as top priority. This study finds that railroad investment effects are larger than those of road on the national economics and, thus, impling that the expansion of railroad investment is required to grow continuously national economics as well as a major modal of transportation networks.

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조강형 Latex Modified Concrete를 이용한 교량상판면 보수용 Overlay Concrete 제조 및 적용에 관한 연구 (Manufacture and Applicasion of High-Early Strength Latex-Modified Concrete to Resurface and Repair Bridge Decks)

  • 엄태선;임채용;백상현;이승재;조윤호;엄주용
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2000년도 가을 학술발표회논문집(I)
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    • pp.485-490
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    • 2000
  • Because of occuring easily the crack, debond, lutting on asphalts pavement of bredge decks under traffic's heavy weigt load. We investigated the application of latex modified concrete to resurface and repaire bridge decks for preventing the above problems. Here, Using the ordinary portland cement and high early cement, We rested mix design, workability, compressive strength, adhesive power, drying shrinkage, carbonation, and economic estimation etc. We selected the condition of application to resurface and repaire bridge decks and detected high early cement is superior to ordinary portland cement in results of analyzing the application of the repairing bridge decks and economic estimations.

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소득분포 극화의 추정과 검증 (Estimation and Verification for Polarization of Income Distribution in Korea)

  • 유경준
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2007
  • 본고의 분석 결과 지니계수와 양극화지수가 이론적으로는 상이하나, 실증적으로는, 상관관계를 통해서 볼 때, 다른 지수라 보기 어렵다는 점이 확인되었다. 또한 DER지수의 추정을 통해 한국소득분포의 극화를 추정한 결과도 외환위기 전후로 소득분포의 극화가 지니계수로 측정되는 소득불평등도보다 심화되었다고 여길 수 없음이 확인되었다.

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Reliability-based Approach to Optimal Economic Estimation of Concrete Cover Thickness under Carbonation Environment

  • Do, Jeong-Yun;Kim, Doo-Kie;Song, Hun;Jo, Young-Kug
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2009
  • Concrete carbonation is a cause of problems in concrete structures, so it needs to be estimated. And concrete cover is designed to protect structures from this damaging. Usually the cover thickness is considered based on the limit states design codes in which the important target is the reliability safety index. However, it is not clear that whether the safety index determined is optimal or not with respect to the cost. The codes are mainly proceeded quantitatively (i.e. making a safe structure) while the economic aspects are only considered qualitatively. So the reliability-based design considering life cycle cost (LCC) is called for, and here the focus is on the advanced analysis solution to optimize the reliability safety regarding LCC.

잔존수명을 활용한 제조설비의 경제적 감가상각률 추정방안 (A Study on the Estimation of Economic Depreciation Rate on Industrial Property U sing Remianing Life)

  • 오현승;조진형
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.219-224
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    • 2010
  • Depreciation accounting has as its main objective, the recovery of the original cost of plant investment less net salvage, over the estimated useful life of that plant. Accuracy of the whole life technique in meeting this objective depends entirely on the original estimates of service life and net salvages for an account. Where the whole life technique has been used and original estimates prove inaccurate, excessive or deficient accumulations in the depreciation reserve frequently occur. To overcome this, the remaining life technique is suggested to better match the challenges of accelerated technology and competition within the regulated environment. The flexibility of the remaining life technique will allow an even chance to provide a complete recovery of the original cost.