• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.185-195
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• 2012

This paper focused on forecasting a short-term production of oysters, which have been farmed in Korea, with distinct periodicity of production by year, and different production level by month. To forecast a short-term oyster production, this paper uses monthly data (260 observations) from January 1990 to August 2011, and also adopts several econometrics methods, such as Multiple Regression Analysis Model (MRAM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As a result, first, the amount of short-term oyster production forecasted by the multiple regression analysis model was 1,337 ton with prediction error of 246 ton. Secondly, the amount of oyster production of the SARIMA I and II models was forecasted as 12,423 ton and 12,442 ton with prediction error of 11,404 ton and 11,423 ton, respectively. Thirdly, the amount of oyster production based on the VECM was estimated as 10,425 ton with prediction errors of 9,406 ton. In conclusion, based on Theil inequality coefficient criterion, short-term prediction of oyster by the VECM exhibited a better fit than ones by the SARIMA I and II models and Multiple Regression Analysis Model.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.109-114
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• 2019

The purpose of the study to evaluate the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism receipts (TR) to Sri Lanka's gross domestic product (GDP). This study employs time series annual data for the period from 1978 to 2016 and EViews 10 econometrics software was used for the time series data analysis. Unit root test was done on the variables and the method chosen was the Augmented Dicky - Fuller test. Co-integration analysis was used for the long run relationship and the Granger causality test was performed to investigate the causal relationship. Recently a more conducive environment has been established after the three decade long ethnic war came to an end. In this context, the Sri Lankan government has taken positive measures to attract foreign direct investment and boost tourism in the country. This study intends to evaluate the contribution of Sri Lanka, as these two factors are considered to be very effective at increasing the GDP of a country. The empirical study shows that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the variable's TR and FDI to the GDP in the long run. Results of Granger causality test implied that the two-way causality promoted the economic growth of Sri Lanka.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.17-32
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• 2019

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of pesticide-related accident on prices and sales of eggs and the perception of food safety accidents among consumers. For this, we analyzed the impact of the pesticide incident on consumers' purchases by separating large discount stores and eco-friendly specialty stores with econometrics methods. In addition, the value changes for each egg certification were analyzed after the accident. Perception of food safety accidents was conducted through a survey to investigate the awareness of the pesticide-related accidents, changes in purchases, and the causes of the pesticide accidents. Furthermore, the risk analysis was conducted. This results show the importance of trust and communication in food safety accidents between distributors, consumers and concerned authorities. Also, after the accident, consumers' interest and premium exist in the breeding process such as animal welfare, not only in the final product. Therefore in order to actively respond to food safety accidents such as pesticides-related accident, response and improvement are necessary considering various aspects such as risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2011

With the growing penetration of distributed generation including from renewable sources, smart grid power system is needed to address the reliability problem. One important feature of smart grid is demand response. In order to design a demand response program, it is indispensable to understand how consumer reacts upon the change of electricity price. In this paper, we construct an econometrics model to estimate the hourly price elasticity of demand. This panel model utilizes the hourly load data obtained from KEPCO for the period from year 2005 to 2009. The hourly price elasticity of demand is found to be statistically significant for all the sample under investigation. The samples used for this analysis is from the past historical data under the price structure of three different time zones for each season. The result of the analysis of this time of use pricing structure would allow the policy maker design an appropriate incentive program. This study is important in the sense that it provides a basic research information for designing future demand response programs.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.191-200
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• 2020

This research paper examines the causal relationship between India's economic growth and sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vice versa, in the short-run and long-run, over a 10 years time period. Johansen's method of cointegration is used to study the cointegration between the sectoral contributions to Indian GDP vis-à-vis India's economic growth. Further, the route of interconnection between economic growth and sectoral contribution is tested by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Special attention was given for investigating impulse responses of economic growth depending on the innovations in sectoral contribution using time-series data from 1960 to 2015. This paper highlighted a dynamic co-relationship among industrial sector contribution and agricultural sector contribution and economic development. In the long run, one percent change in industrial sector contribution causes an increase of 3.42 percent in the economic growth and an increase of 1.12 percent in the primary sector contribution, while in the short run industrial and service sector contributions showed significant impact on economic development and agriculture sector. The changing composition of sector contribution is going to be an important activity for the policymakers to monitor and control where the technology and integration of sectors play a significant role in economic development.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.65-76
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• 2013

Traffic accidents at signalized intersections have been increased annually so that it is required to examine the causation to reduce the accidents. However, the current existing accident models were developed mainly by using non-linear regression models such as Poisson methods. These non-linear regression methods lack to reveal the complicated causation for traffic accidents, though they are the right choice to study randomness and non-linearity of accidents. Therefore, it is required to utilize another statistical method to make up for the lack of the non-linear regression methods. This study developed accident prediction models for 4 legged signalized intersections with Poisson methods and compared them with structural equation models. This study used structural equation methods to reveal the complicated causation of traffic accidents, because the structural equation method has merits to explain more causational factors for accidents than others.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.825-835
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• 2008

Multivariate GARCH(MGARCH) has been useful in financial studies and econometrics for modeling volatilities and correlations between components of multivariate time series. An obvious drawback lies in that the number of parameters increases rapidly with the number of variables involved. This thesis tries to resolve the problem by using dimension reduction technique. We briefly review both factor models for dimension reduction and the MGARCH models including EWMA (Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model). We create meaningful portfolios obtained after reducing dimension through statistical factor models and fundamental factor models and in turn these portfolios are applied to MGARCH. In addition, we compare portfolios by assessing MSE, MAD(Mean absolute deviation) and VaR(Value at Risk). Various financial time series are analyzed for illustration.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.179-187
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• 2019

This study aims to investigate the effects of market commonality and resource similarity on price competition and the recursive consequences in the Korean lodging market. Price comparison among hotels in the same geographic market has been facilitated through the development of information technology, rendering little search cost of consumers. While the literature implies the heterogeneous price attack and response among hotels, a limited number of empirical researches focus on the asymmetric and recursive pattern in the competitive dynamics. This study empirically examines the price interactions in the Korean lodging market based on the theoretical framework of competitive price interactions and countervailing power. Demonstrating superiority to the spatial lag model and the ordinary least squares in the estimation, the results from spatial error model suggest that the hotels with longer operational history pose an asymmetric impact on the price of the newer hotels. The asymmetry is also found in chain hotels over the independent, further implying the possibility of predatory pricing. The findings of this study provide the evidence of a hierarchical structure in the price competition, with different countervailing power by the resources of the hotels. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed, with suggestions for future study.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.132-146
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• 2001

Rice cultivation is not only the main resource of farm income and staple food but also the root of cultural life of Korean people. Korean government has carried out irrigation water development with heavy investment to cope with water shortage in rice fanning as a link of the five years economic development plans. In spite of the continuous accomplishment of irrigation water development, the marginal benefits-costs of irrigation water has not been studied. Owing to the government full support for the operation and maintenance of irrigation facilities, price of irrigation water as a membership fee could not be formed as the municipal and industrial water prices. Accordingly this study is aimed at identifying firstly the marginal benefits-cost of irrigation water, secondly deriving the macro-econometrics models as supply and demand functions of irrigation water and thirdly examining the marginal benefits-cost ratio. The trends of supply and demand prices of irrigation water were estimated annually. Considering the marginal benefits-cost ratio as 1.3, it was identified that additional irrigation water development projects still have an economic feasibility under the present economic situation in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.11 no.3 s.28
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• pp.59-67
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• 2005

According to diverse studies in population migration, there has been a strong age-dependent population distribution in Korea. It is shown that a particular age-group tends to reside in a particular locale or community and the effect possesses usually statistical significance. We quantitatively address this issue: how certain division of age group resides in different region of the country, and investigate possible cause of this migration pattern for different age groups. In this study, population migration trend at age groups of 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s has been analyzed incorporating a spatial econometrics model that accounts for diverse statistical pitfalls such as spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependency. We found that migration trend for different age group corresponds to regional characteristics differently. The study concludes with some policy implications and suggests a need of further study.