• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2019

This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.403-411
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• 2021

This study discusses the influence of economic factors on the clothing exports from China and 15 South and Southeast Asian countries to the United States. A basic gravity trade model with three predictors, including the GDP value produced by exporting and importing countries and their geographical distance was established to explain the bilateral trade patterns. The conventional approach of multiple regression and the novel approach of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed based on the value of clothing exports from 2012 to 2018 and applied to the trade pattern prediction of 2019. The results showed that ANNs can achieve a more accurate prediction in bilateral trade patterns than the commonly-used econometric analysis of the basic gravity trade model. Future studies can examine the predictive power of ANNs on an extended gravity model of trade that includes explanatory variables in social and environmental areas, such as policy, initiative, agreement, and infrastructure for trade facilitation, which are crucial for policymaking and managerial consideration. More research should be conducted for the examination of the balance between developing countries' economic growth and their social and environmental sustainability and for the application of more advanced machine-learning algorithms of global trade flow examination.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.311-324
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• 2021

Investors have increasingly become interested in macroeconomic antecedents in order to better understand the investment environment and estimate the scope of profitable investment in equity markets. This study endeavors to examine the interdependency between the macroeconomic antecedents (international oil price (COP), Domestic gold price (GP), Rupee-dollar exchange rates (ER), Real interest rates (RIR), consumer price indices (CPI)), and the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 index return. The data is converted into a natural logarithm for keeping it normal as well as for reducing the problem of heteroscedasticity. Monthly time series data from January 1992 to July 2019 is extracted from the Reserve Bank of India database with the application of financial Econometrics. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test for removal of autocorrelation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for removal of heteroscedasticity, Cointegration test and VECM test for testing cointegration between macroeconomic factors and market returns,] are employed to fit regression model. The Indian market returns are stable and positive but show intense volatility. When the series is stationary after the first difference, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation are not present. Different forecast accuracy measures point out macroeconomics can forecast future market returns of the Indian stock market. The step-by-step econometric tests show the long-run affiliation among macroeconomic antecedents.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.207-215
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• 2021

The number of tourists visiting Nepal has shown rapid growth in recent years, and Nepal is expecting more tourist arrivals in the future. This paper, thus, attempts to analyze the tourist arrivals in Nepal and predict the number of visitors until 2025. This paper has examined the international tourist arrival trend in Nepal using the Gompertz and Logistic growth model. The international tourist arrival data from 1991 to 2018 is used to investigate international tourist arrival trends. The result of the analysis found that the Gompertz model performs a better fit than the Logistic model. The study further forecast the expected tourist arrival below one million (844,319) by 2025. Nevertheless, the government of Nepal has the goal of two million tourists in a year. The present study also discusses system dynamics scenarios for the two million potential visitors within a year. Scenario analysis shows that proper advertisement and positive word-of-mouth will be key factors in achieving a higher number of tourists. The current study could fill the gap of theoretical and empirical forecasting of tourist arrivals in the Nepalese tourism industry. Also, the study findings would be beneficial for government officers, planners and investors, and policy-makers in the Nepalese tourism industry.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.67-77
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• 2020

Purpose - This work tries to analyze the transformation of sectoral innovation pattern as time goes by to enhance the understanding on sectoral innovative activities, particularly considering the change of the nature of knowledge, and the trend of convergence. Research design, data, and methodology - This work tries to identify main factors, which determine the output of technological innovation through the econometric analysis, utilizing the result of Korean Innovation Survey and find a stylized fact on the change of the innovation pattern. Result - As a result of estimation, some major elements show different effects for two discrete years, 2002 and 2010; in chemical industry the open information source and neutral basic research become more important with the appropriation mechanism such as patents, and in machinery industry, the importance of internal information has been getting decreased with rising importance of customers. Conclusion - This work presents that some elements show different effects for two discrete years. Among three major elements, the source of information and appropriation mechanism shows different features for both industries. This means that we should explicit consider the changing nature of innovative environment, which leads to and heavily influence whether the innovative activity would be effective or not when we design innovation strategy and innovation policy.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2020

Purpose - The propose of this study is to examine the effect of human development index on mobile telephony diffusion. Design/methodology/approach - This study fits the modidensity of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries with an econometric Gompertz growth model. The diffusion factors, including the human development index (HDI), gross domestic product (nominal) per capita, fixed-line telephony subscription, and population data of each member country from 2005 to 2018 are considered for the empirical experiment. Furthermore, the mobidensity of randomly sampled countries with very high human development scores (the Republic of Korea, Switzerland and Norway) and high development scores (Brazil and Costa Rica) have been examined with the same process as SAARC members. Findings - We have found a positive but insignificant relationship between the HDI value and mobile telephony diffusion in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Pakistan; a positive and statistically significant relationship at a 99% confidence level in SriLanka; and a negative and insignificant relationship in the Maldives and Nepal. HDI has both positive and negative effects on mobile telephony diffusion, with the nature of effect depending on the profiles of each country. HDI is a diffusion determinant of mobile telephony only for the high human development country groups. Research implications or Originality - This study provides a reference for policymakers, telecommunication stakeholders, and future researchers to design the telecommunication policies and strategies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.325-329
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• 2022

Enterprises play an increasingly important role in economic development in each country. Effective businesses will make the economies of countries also become efficient and develop. Enterprises play a role in creating jobs, improving labor productivity, and connecting foreign trade and import-export activities. The study aims to evaluate the factors affecting the profitability of small and medium enterprises in Hanoi by using a study of 210 enterprises in the area as well as advanced econometric regression analysis. The research results show that firm size and human capital have no impact on business performance. However, older firms are likely to have higher firm performance, and conversely, younger firms have lower firm performance. The research also confirms that the growth of businesses often has higher firm performance than low-growth ones. Furthermore, a firm with greater value is also more likely to stimulate business performance than lower its value, and this effect is the largest among the analyzed factors. Finally, the study also has some recommendations for the Vietnamese government to develop small and medium enterprises. Specifically, the government needs to create an open mechanism for the start-up movement and create a favorable financial mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises to be able to access.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.173-183
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• 2022

The objective of this research is to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets in a few developing and developed countries. This study uses daily data from January 2020 to May 2021 and obtained from World Health Organization and Thomson Reuters. The secondary data was evaluated through panel econometric methodology that includes different unit root tests, and to analyze the long-run relationship between variables, panel cointegration techniques were applied. The long-run causality among variables was examined through Panel Vector Error Correction Model. The overall findings of this study suggest a long-run association exists between several cases and death with the stock returns of the GCC and other stock markets. Furthermore, the VECM model also identified a long-run causality running from COVID cases and death towards the stock rerun of both sets of stock markets. However, a subsequent Wald test yielded mixed results, indicating no short-run causality between cases and deaths and stock returns in both groups; however, in the case of GCC, several COVID-19 cases are having a causal impact on stock markets, which is notable in light of the fact that the death rate in GCC is significantly lower than in many developed and developing countries.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.417-431
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of current study is to investigate the determinants of quality of life in Chungbuk province using Korean longitudinal study aging data. Design/methodology/approach - This study used quality of life and perceived healthiness as the dependent variables. This study selected perceived healthiness, economic participation, annual travel frequency, religion, and fellowship as the independent variables to account for quality of life. For the data analysis, this study implemented econometric analysis, which includes ordinary least square, one-way fixed effect, and feasible generalized least square. Findings - Perceived healthiness positively affected quality of life. Also, quality of life is positively influenced by economic participation and annual travel frequency. However, religion and fellowship appeared as non-significant attribute to account for quality of life. The results also present that perceived healthiness is positively influenced by economic participation, annual travel frequency, and fellowship. Research implications or Originality - Given the results, this offers the implication for the senior citizen welfare policy. This study also produced policy implication for local community.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.18-33
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper investigated the effect of international trade affects income inequality. It also compares the different effects between developing and developed countries over the period from 2005 to 2014 for 58 countries. Design/methodology - The econometric estimation was used to identify the relationship between export, import, FDI, GDP, unemployment and income inequality. In this empirical analysis, we utilized a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model using panel data. Findings - The findings show that there is a close correlated between trade and income inequality. The higher export ratio of GDP tends to have a 1.79 times more income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. The higher import ratio of GDP tends to have a 2.44 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Further, Increasing FDI tend to have an approximately 1.43 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Korea is in the middle of developed and developing countries' result. Originality/value - To correct the global income inequality regarding trade, developed countries' proactive trade policies, such as granting preferential tariff benefits to developing countries, are likely to be needed and Income Safety Net in international trade must be taken into account.