• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.431-444
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• 2012

We simulated and compared present and future ocean circulation in the East China Sea using an East Asia Regional Ocean model. Mean climate states for 1990~1999 and 2030~2039 were used as surface conditions for simulations of present and future ocean circulation, which were derived from the simulations of three different global climate models, ECHAM5-MPI, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2_hires, for the 20th century and those of 21st century as projected by the IPCC SRES A1B. East Asia Regional Ocean model simulated the detailed patterns of temperature, salinity and current fields under present and future climate conditions and their changes instead of the simple structures of global climate models. To some extent, there are consistent ocean circulation changes derived from the three pairs corresponding to the global climate model in so much as the temperature increases not only in winter but summer at both the surface and bottom and that temperature and salinity changes are prominent near the Chinese coast and in the Changjiang bank. However, the simulated circulations are different among each other depending on the prescribed atmospheric conditions not only under present climate but also with regard to future climate conditions. There is not a coincident tendency in ocean circulation changes between present and future simulations derived from the three pairs. This suggests that more simulations with different pairs are needed.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2008

Analyzing the results of East Sea Regional Ocean Model using a 3-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of the North Korean Cold Current (NKCC) in the East Sea. The climatological monthly mean transport of the NKCC clearly shows seasonal variation of the NKCC within the range of about 0.35 Sv ($=0^6m^3/s$), which increases from its minimum (about 0.45 Sv) through December-January to March, decreases during March and May, and then increases again to the maximum (about 0.8 Sv) in August-September. The volume transport of the NKCC shows interannual variation of the NKCC with the range of about 1.0 Sv that is larger than seasonal variation. The southward current of the NKCC appears often not only in summer but in winter as well. The width of the NKCC is about 35 km near the Korean coast and its core is located under the East Korea Warm Current. The North Korean Cold Water (NKCW), characterized by low salinity and low temperature, is located both under the Tsushima Warm Water and in the western side of the maximum southward current of the NKCC that means the NKCC advects the NKCW southward along the Korean coast. It is revealed that the intermediate low salinity water, formed off the Vladivostok in winter, flows southward to the south of $37^{\circ}N$ through $2{\sim}3$ paths; one path along the Korean coast, another one along $132^{\circ}E$, and the middle path along $130^{\circ}E$. The path of the intermediate low salinity varies with years. The reanalysis fields suggest that the NKCW is advected through the paths along the Korean coast and along $130^{\circ}E$.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.273-286
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• 2021

In recent years, as human casualties and property damage caused by hazardous waves have increased in the East Sea, precise wave prediction skills have become necessary. In this study, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) third-generation numerical wave model was calibrated and optimized to enhance the accuracy of winter storm wave prediction in the East Sea. We used Source Term 6 (ST6) and physical observations from a large-scale experiment conducted in Australia and compared its results to Komen's formula, a default in SWAN. As input wind data, we used Korean Meteorological Agency's (KMA's) operational meteorological model called Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts' newest 5th generation re-analysis data (ERA5), and Japanese Meteorological Agency's (JMA's) meso-scale forecasting data. We analyzed the accuracy of each model's results by comparing them to observation data. For quantitative analysis and assessment, the observed wave data for 6 locations from KMA and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) were used, and statistical analysis was conducted to assess model accuracy. As a result, ST6 models had a smaller root mean square error and higher correlation coefficient than the default model in significant wave height prediction. However, for peak wave period simulation, the results were incoherent among each model and location. In simulations with different wind data, the simulation using ERA5 for input wind datashowed the most accurate results overall but underestimated the wave height in predicting high wave events compared to the simulation using RDAPS and JMA meso-scale model. In addition, it showed that the spatial resolution of wind plays a more significant role in predicting high wave events. Nevertheless, the numerical model optimized in this study highlighted some limitations in predicting high waves that rise rapidly in time caused by meteorological events. This suggests that further research is necessary to enhance the accuracy of wave prediction in various climate conditions, such as extreme weather.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2016

Recently, there has been a growing interest in physical-biological ocean-modeling systems by communities in the fields of science and business. In this paper, we present preliminary results from a coupled physical-biological model for the Northwestern Pacific marginal seas. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the lower trophic level ecosystem component is a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model. The ROMS-NPZD coupled system, with a 25 km resolution, is forced by climatological atmospheric data and predicts the physical variables and concentrations of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus. Model results are compared with remote-sensed sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, and with climatological sea surface salinity and nitrate. Our model adequately reproduces the observed spatial distribution and seasonal variability of nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations as well as physical variables, showing a high correlation in the East Sea (ES) and Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension (KOE) region but relatively low correlation in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS). Although some deficiencies were found in the biological components, such as the over/underestimation of the intensity of phytoplankton blooms in the ES and KOE/the YS and ECS, our system demonstrates the capability of the model to capture and record dominant seasonal variability in physical-biological processes and this holds out the promise of coming to a better understanding of such processes and making better predictions .

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.103-117
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• 2017

This note provides technical guide on three issues associated with establishing and automatically running regional ocean forecasting systems: (1) a strategy for continuous production of hourly-interval three-day ocean forecast data, (2) the daily download of ocean and atmospheric forecasting data (i.e., HYCOM and NOAA/NCEP GFS data), which are provided by outside institutions and used as initial condition, surface forcing, and boundary data for regional ocean models, and (3) error notifications to numerical model managers through the Short Message Service (SMS). Guidance on dealing with these three issues is illustrated via solutions implemented by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency, since in embarking on this project we found that this procedural information was not readily available elsewhere. This technical guide is based on our experiences and lessons learned during the process of establishing and operating regional ocean forecasting systems for the East Sea and the Yellow and East China Seas over the 5 year period of 2012-2016. The fundamental approach and techniques outlined in this guide are of use to anyone wanting to establish an automatic regional and coastal ocean forecasting system.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.53-63
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• 2021

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.115-129
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• 2019

Surface winds over the ocean influence not only the climate change through air-sea interactions but the coastal erosion through the changes in wave height and direction. Thus, demands on a reliable projection of future changes in surface winds have been increasing in various fields. For the future projections, climate models have been widely used and, as a priori, their simulations of surface wind are required to be evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the climatological mean surface winds over the Korean Waters simulated by five regional climate models participating in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia (EA), an international regional climate model inter-comparison project. Compared with the ERA-interim reanalysis data, the CORDEX-EA models, except for HadGEM3-RA, produce stronger wind both in summer and winter. The HadGEM3-RA underestimates the wind speed and inadequately simulate the spatial distribution especially in summer. This summer wind error appears to be coincident with mean sea-level pressure in the North Pacific. For wind direction, all of the CORDEX-EA models simulate the well-known seasonal reversal of surface wind similar to the ERA-interim. Our results suggest that especially in summer, large-scale atmospheric circulation, downscaled by regional models with spectral nudging, significantly affect the regional surface wind on its pattern and strength.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.613-619
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• 2007

Mesoscale low is often observed over the downstream region of the East Sea (or, northwest coast off the Japan Islands) during East-Asia winter monsoon. The low system causes a heavy snowfall at the region. A series of numerical experiments were conducted with the aid of a regional model (MM5 ver. 3.5) to examine the formation mechanism of the mesoscale low. The following results were obtained: 1) A well-developed mesoscale low was simulated by the regional model under real topography, NCEP reanalysis, and OISST; 2) The mesoscale low was simulated under a zonally averaged SST without topography. This implies that the meridional gradient of SST is the main factor in the formation of a mesoscale low; 3) A thermal contrast ($>10^{\circ}C$) of land-sea and topography-induced disturbance served as the second important factor for the formation; 4) Paektu Mountain caused the surface wind to decelerate downstream, which created a more favorable environment for thermodynamic modification than that was found in a flat topography; and 5) The types of cumulus parameterizations did not affect the development of the mesoscale low.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.