• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.129-141
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• 2017

본 연구는 K-IFRS도입 후 회계이익의 질을 상장기업(KOSPI, KOSDAQ)을 대상으로 하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과를 보면 첫째, KOSPI가 KOSDAQ보다 발생액의 질이 높게 나왔고 보고이익과 현금이익의 지속성 및 예측력도 일관되게 더 양호함을 볼 수 있다. 둘째, KOSPI와 KOSDAQ 모두 일관되게 미래현금흐름에 대한 예측능력이 현금이익보다는 회계이익이 더 양호함을 볼 수 있다. 셋째 발생액의 정도에 따른 이익의 지속성과 예측력은 KOSPI와 KOSDAQ 모두 발생액의 질이 양호한 집단일수록 이익의 지속성과 예측력이 더 높음을 볼 수 있고 회계이익의 미래현금흐름 예측능력이 또한 더 양호함을 알 수 있다. 결론적으로 본 연구를 통해 K-IFRS도입 후 회계이익의 질은 KOSDAQ보다 KOSPI가 더 양호함을 볼 수 있고 발생액이 높을수록 그 차이는 더 큼을 볼 수 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권8호
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• pp.647-658
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• 2021

Analysts' forecasts are important for providing useful guidance to investors, especially individual or small investors, and therefore it becomes critical to identify the elements which can potentially increase errors in analysts' forecasts. This study investigates potential factors which can lead to errors in forecasting by analysts, specifically in terms of the level and attributes of corporate earnings. Utilizing a sample of firms listed on the Korean stock markets, this study provides evidence that firms with more volatile and unpredictable earnings feature less accurate analyst forecasts. This study fills a void in the literature by conducting empirical tests for earnings attributes in terms of volatility and unpredictability that could potentially undermine the forecast accuracy. The negative association between the quality of earnings and forecast accuracy is more pronounced for firms with negative net income values. Additional analysis demonstrates that forecast accuracy is significantly lower for the fourth quarter than for other fiscal quarters and that fourth quarter earnings tend to be more volatile and unpredictable. This study contributes to the literature by providing new empirical evidence regarding the comprehensive effects of earnings quality and level on analysts' forecasting accuracy and further suggests potential factors contributing to the fourth quarter anomaly in analyst forecasts in terms of earnings attributes.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.333-351
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• 2019

We use a data-mining bootstrap procedure to investigate the predictability test in the eight Asia-Pacific regional stock markets using in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting models. We address ourselves to the data-mining bias issues by using the data-mining bootstrap procedure proposed by Inoue and Kilian and applied to the US stock market data by Rapach and Wohar. The empirical findings show that stock returns are predictable not only in-sample but out-of-sample in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Korea with a few exceptions for some forecasting horizons. However, we find some significant disparity between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in the Korean stock market. For Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, stock returns have predictable components both in-sample and out-of-sample. For the US, Australia, and Canada, we do not find any evidence of return predictability in-sample and out-of-sample with a few exceptions. For Japan, stock returns have a predictable component with price-earnings ratio as a forecasting variable for some out-of-sample forecasting horizons.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제15권12호
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• pp.283-291
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• 2017

본 연구는 한국채택국제회계기준(이하 K-IFRS)의 최초 도입시점에 발생한 회계수치의 전환조정이 그 이후 기간에 K-IFRS에 근거하여 작성된 보고이익의 미래이익예측 능력에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 검토하고자 한다. 이를 위해, 2010년부터 2016년까지의 표본기간 동안 총 2,557개의 표본을 이용하여 K-IFRS 도입과정에서 경영자가 재량적으로 전환 조정을 수행한 것으로 의심되는 기업집단에서 K-IFRS에 따라 작성된 보고이익의 질이 악화되는 경향이 있는가를 이익예측모형을 통해 확인하였다. 분석결과, K-IFRS 도입 시점에 비정상적으로 과도한 전환조정수치를 나타낸 기업집단에서 그 이후 K-IFRS에 근거하여 보고한 이익의 차기 이익 예측능력이 대응집단에 비해 낮은 경향을 보이고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또, 이러한 결과가 다양한 추가분석을 통해서도 강건하게 지지되고 있음을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 모두 K-IFRS 도입 시점에 경영자가 자신이 지닌 회계적 재량권을 남용하거나 오용하였을 경우 향후 보고이익의 미래이익 예측능력 즉, 재무보고의 목적적합성이 저하될 수 있음을 시사한다.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.193-200
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• 2019

Accruals-Quality(AQ) is an important proxy for evaluating the quality of accounting information disclosures. High-quality accounting information will provide high predictability and precision in the disclosure of earnings and will increase the response to stock prices. And high Accruals-Quality, such as mitigating heterogeneity in accounting information interpretation, provides information usefulness in capital markets. The purpose of this study is to suggest how AQ, which represents the quality of accounting information disclosure, is transformed into digitized data in real-time in combination with IT information technology and provided to financial analyst's information environment in real-time. And AQ is a framework for predictive analysis through big data log analysis system. This real-time information from AQ will help financial analysts to increase their activity and reduce information asymmetry. In addition, AQ, which is provided in real time through IT information technology, can be used as an important basis for decision-making by users of capital market information, and is expected to contribute in providing companies with incentives to voluntarily improve the quality of accounting information disclosure.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.107-114
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• 2019

본 연구는 전년도 악재를 경험한 기업에서 경영자가 자발적으로 공시하는 미래 경영성과의 정확성이 경영자 보상에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하고자 한다. 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업의 경우 불확실한 미래에 대한 예측 능력이 더욱 중요시 될 것이며 이에 따라 우수한 예측 능력을 가진 경영자에게 더 높은 보상을 지급할 것이라고 기대하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업의 경영자 이익 예측 정확성과 경영자 보상간의 관련성에 음(-)의 유의한 관계가 나타났으며, 이는 전년도에 악재를 경험한 기업일수록 당기 성과에 대한 경영자의 공시의 정확성이 중시되며, 시장에 경영자의 능력을 알리고자하는 신호 및 미래 불확실성을 줄이고자 하는 경영자의 노력 투입의 유인이 되어 경영 성과가 높아짐에 따라 경영자 보상이 높아지는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 우수한 예측능력을 가진 경영자가 많은 보상을 받을 것이라는 선행연구를 확장하여 전년도의 경영성과가 호재 혹은 악재인지에 따라 예측능력의 중요성이 차별적으로 경영자 보상에 영향을 미친다는 것을 검증하였다는 것에 차별성이 존재하며, 경영자 보상 계약에 영향을 미치는 결정요인을 추가적으로 파악했다는 것에 의의가 있다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2016

Purpose - The purpose of paper is studying the static and dynamic side for long-term memory storage properties, and increase the explanatory power regarding the long-term memory process by looking at the long-term storage attributes, Korea Composite Stock Price Index. The reason for the use of GPH statistic is to derive the modified statistic Korea's stock market, and to research a process of long-term memory. Research design, data, and methodology - Level shifts were subjected to be an empirical analysis by applying the GPH method. It has been modified by taking into account the daily log return of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index a. The Data, used for the stock market to analyze whether deciding the action by the long-term memory process, yield daily stock price index of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the rate of return a log. The studies were proceeded with long-term memory and long-term semiparametric method in deriving the long-term memory estimators. Chapter 2 examines the leading research, and Chapter 3 describes the long-term memory processes and estimation methods. GPH statistics induced modifications of statistics and discussed Whittle statistic. Chapter 4 used Korea Composite Stock Price Index to estimate the long-term memory process parameters. Chapter 6 presents the conclusions and implications. Results - If the price of the time series is generated by the abnormal process, it may be located in long-term memory by a time series. However, test results by price fixed GPH method is not followed by long-term memory process or fractional differential process. In the case of the time-series level shift, the present test method for a long-term memory processes has a considerable amount of bias, and there exists a structural change in the stock distribution market. This structural change has implications in level shift. Stratum level shift assays are not considered as shifted strata. They exist distinctly in the stock secondary market as bias, and are presented in the test statistic of non-long-term memory process. It also generates an error as a long-term memory that could lead to false results. Conclusions - Changes in long-term memory characteristics associated with level shift present the following two suggestions. One, if any impact outside is flowed for a long period of time, we can know that the long-term memory processes have characteristic of the average return gradually. When the investor makes an investment, the same reasoning applies to him in the light of the characteristics of the long-term memory. It is suggested that when investors make decisions on investment, it is necessary to consider the characters of the long-term storage in reference with causing investors to increase the uncertainty and potential. The other one is the thing which must be considered variously according to time-series. The research for price-earnings ratio and investment risk should be composed of the long-term memory characters, and it would have more predictability.