• 한국지역지리학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.128-140
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• 2014

이 논문은 화산재해지도가 갖는 특성을 규명하고, 국내외 화산재해지도의 사례조사를 통해 유형화하였다. 저자들은 해외의 화산재해지도의 구성요소를 도출하여 백두산을 대상으로 활용방안을 모색하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 국외 화산재해지도에 대해 세 가지 유형(Hazard Map, Risk Map, Damage Map)의 재해지도 분석틀을 통해 검토하고, 화산재해지도의 구성요소를 도출하였다. 도출된 화산재해지도 구성요소는 1) 과거이력 누적 지도, 2) 확률론적 위험지도, 3) 시나리오 기반 지도이며, 이를 바탕으로 활용사례별(피난활용형, 방재정보형, 방재교육형) 화산재해지도의 구성요소를 제시하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.203-203
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• 2016

The linkage between climate change and water security, i.e., the response of water resource to the future climate change, have been of great concern to both scientific community and policy makers. In this study, the impact of future climate on water resources in Yellow River Basin in North of China has been investigated using the Coupled Land surface and Hydrology Model System (CLHMS) and IPCC AR5 projected future climate change in the basin. Firstly, the performances of 14 IPCC AR5 models in reproducing the observed precipitation and temperature in China, especially in North of China, have been evaluated, and it's suggested most climate models do show systematic bias compared with the observation, however, CNRM-CM5、HadCM5 and IPSL-CM5 model are generally the best models among those 14 models. Taking the daily projection results from the CNRM-CM5, along with the bias-correction technique, the response of water resources in Yellow river basin to the future climate change in different emission scenarios have been investigated. All the simulation results indicate a reduction in water resources. The current situation of water shortage since 1980s will keep continue, the water resources reduction varies between 28 and 23% for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 scenario simulation shows a decrease of water resources in the early and mid 21th century, but after 2080, with the increase of rainfall, the extreme flood events tends to increase.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권11호
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• pp.4999-5003
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• 2016

The testicular cancer (TCa) incidence is increasing in many countries, with age-standardized incidence rates up to 7.8/100,000 men in the Western world, although reductions in mortality and increasingly high cure rates are being witnessed at the same time. In Africa, where rates are lower, presentation is often late and morbidity and mortality high. Given this scenario, awareness of testicular cancer and practice of testicular self-examination among future first response doctors is very important. This study was conducted to determine knowledge and attitude to testicular cancer, and practice of testicular self-examination (TSE) among final (6th) year medical students. In addition, the effect of an intervention in the form of a single PowerPoint(R) lecture, lasting 40 minutes with image content on testicular cancer and testicular self examination was assessed. Pre and post intervention administration of a self-administered structured pre tested questionnaire was performed on 151 medical students, 101 of whom returned answers (response rate of 66.8%). In the TC domain, there was a high level of awareness of testicular cancer, but poor knowledge of the age group most affected, with significant improvement post intervention (p<0.001). Notable also was the poor awareness of the potential curability of TC, this also being improved following the intervention (p<0.001). A poor level of awareness and practice of testicular self-examination pre-intervention was found considering the nature of the study group..Respondents had surprisingly weak/poor responses to the question "How important to men's health is regular testicular self-examination?" Answers to the questions "Do you think it is worthwhile to examine your testis regularly?" and "Would you be interested in more information on testicular cancer and testicular self-examination?" were also suboptimal, but improved post intervention p<0.001, p<0.001 and p=0.037. Age, gender and marital status were without specific influence. In conclusion, this study showed poor levels of knowledge regarding epidemiology of TCa and its potential curability when detected early. There was also a poor awareness of, practice of, and poor attitudes to TSE. The significant improvement in these parameters post intervention indicates value in educational intervention. We recommend inclusion of TCa coverage and TSE teaching in the secondary school curriculum (targeting adolescents). Greater emphasis should also be given to testicular cancer in the curricula of medical schools and other training institutions for health care personnel.

• 안보군사학연구
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• 통권13호
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• pp.687-738
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• 2016

To prepare for the complicated international relationship regarding Korean Peninsula after reunification, this thesis started off with the awareness that Unified Korea should build its international posture and national security at an early stage by determining its appropriate military strength for independent defense and military strategies that Unified Korea should aim. The main theme of this thesis is 'The research on appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military'. To derive appropriate military strength of Unified Korea, this research focuses on conflict scenario and relative balance strategy based on potential threats posed by neighboring countries, and this is the part that differentiates this research from other researches. First of all, the main objective of the research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to secure defense sufficiency. For this, this research will decide efficient military strategy that Unified Korea should aim. Than by presuming the most possible military conflict scenario, this research will judge the most appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to overcome the dispute. Second, after deciding appropriate military strength, this research will suggest how to operate presumed military strength in each armed force. The result of this thesis is as in the following. First, Unified Korea should aim 'relative balance strategy'. 'Relative balance strategy' is a military strategy which Unified Korea can independently secure defense sufficiency by maintaining relative balance when conflicts occur between neighboring countries. This strategy deters conflicts in advance by relative balance of power in certain time and place. Even if conflict occurs inevitably, this strategy secures initiative. Second, when analyzing neighboring countries interest and strategic environment after unification, the possibility of all-out war will be low in the Korean Peninsula because no other nation wants the Korean Peninsula to be subordinated to one single country. Therefore appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military would be enough when Unified Korea can achieve relative balance in regional war or limited war. Third, Northeast Asia is a region where economic power and military strength is concentrated. Despite increasing mutual cooperation in the region, conflicts and competition to expand each countries influence is inherent. Japan is constantly enhancing their military strength as they aim for normal statehood. China is modernizing their military strength as they aspire to become global central nation. Russia is also enhancing their military strength in order to hold on to their past glory of Soviet Union as a world power. As a result, both in quality and quantity, the gap between military strength of Unified Korea and each neighboring countries is enlarged at an alarming rate. Especially in the field of air-sea power, arms race is occurring between each nation. Therefore Unified Korea should be equipped with appropriate military strength in order to achieve relative balance with each threats posed by neighboring countries. Fourth, the most possible conflicts between Unified Korea and neighboring countries could be summarized into four, which are Dokdo territorial dispute with Japan, Leodo jurisdictional dispute with China, territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korea Peninsula with China and disputes regarding marine resources and sea routes with Russia. Based on those conflict scenarios, appropriate military strength for Unified Korea is as in the following. When conflict occurs with Japan regarding Dokdo, Japan is expected to put JMSDF Escort Flotilla 3, one out of four of its Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Escort Fleet, which is based in Maizuru and JMSDF Maizuru District. To counterbalance this military strength, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of jurisdictional conflict with China concerning Leodo, China is expected to dispatch its North Sea fleet, one out of three of its naval fleet, which is in charge of the Yellow Sea. To response to this military action, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korean Peninsula with China, it is estimated that out of seven Military Region troops, China will dispatch two Military Region troops, including three Army Groups from Shenyang Military Region, where it faces boarder with the Korean Peninsula. To handle with this military strength, Unified Korea needs six corps size ground force strength, including three corps of ground forces, two operational reserve corps(maneuver corps), and one strategic reserve corps(maneuver corps). When conflict occurs with Russia regarding marine resources and sea routes, Russia is expected to send a warfare group of a size that includes two destroyers, which is part of the Pacific Fleet. In order to balance this strength, Unified Korea naval power requires one warfare group including two destroyers. Fifth, management direction for the Unified Korean military is as in the following. Regarding the ground force management, it would be most efficient to deploy troops in the border area with china for regional and counter-amphibious defense. For the defense except the border line with china, the most efficient form of force management would be maintaining strategic reserve corps. The naval force should achieve relative balance with neighboring countries when there is maritime dispute and build 'task fleet' which can independently handle long-range maritime mission. Of the three 'task fleet', one task fleet should be deployed at Jeju base to prepare for Dokdo territorial dispute and Leodo jurisdictional dispute. Also in case of regional conflict with china, one task fleet should be positioned at Yellow Sea and for regional conflict with Japan and Russia, one task fleet should be deployed at East Sea. Realistically, Unified Korea cannot possess an air force equal to neither Japan nor China in quantity. Therefore, although Unified Korea's air force might be inferior in quantity, they should possess the systematic level which Japan or China has. For this Unified Korea should build air base in island areas like Jeju Island or Ullenong Island to increase combat radius. Also to block off infiltration of enemy attack plane, air force needs to build and manage air bases near coastal areas. For landing operation forces, Marine Corps should be managed in the size of two divisions. For island defense force, which is in charge of Jeju Island, Ulleung Island, Dokdo Island and five northwestern boarder island defenses, it should be in the size of one brigade. Also for standing international peace keeping operation, it requires one brigade. Therefore Marine Corps should be organized into three divisions. The result of the research yields a few policy implications when building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea. First, Unified Korea requires lower number of ground troops compared to that of current ROK(Republic of Korea) force. Second, air-sea forces should be drastically reinforced. Third, appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military should be based on current ROK military system. Forth, building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea should start from today, not after reunification. Because of this, South Korea should build a military power that can simultaneously prepare for current North Korea's provocations and future threats from neighboring countries after reunification. The core of this research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to realize relative balance that will ensure defense sufficiency from neighboring countries threats. In other words, this research should precisely be aware of threats posed by neighboring countries and decide minimum level of military strength that could realize relative balance in conflict situation. Moreover this research will show the path for building appropriate military strength in each armed force.

• 대기
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.303-315
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• 2014

HadGEM2-CC 모델에서의 $CO_2$ 농도증가에 대한 RCP 시나리오의 결과는 21세기 말 전 지구 연평균 기온과 강수 증가가 전망되고 이에 따라 식물의 생산량 및 호흡량 증가가 전망된다. 20세기 말 일차생산량(GPP와 NPP), 호흡량, LAI가 21세기 말 기온 증가에 따라 증가하는 점은 기존의 Shao et al. (2013)와 유사하였다. 특히 이전 연구와 유사하게 21세기 말 일차생산량과 호흡량은 고위도보다 열대 저위도 지역에서 증가량이 더 컸다. 기온이 상승하고 강수량이 증가하면서 식생이 자라지 않던 나지 면적이 감소하였고, 이에 따른 식생 면적 증가는 식생의 생산량(GPP, NPP) 증가로 나타났다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 C3 초지, 활엽수의 면적 증가가 뚜렷하였다. 이는 Beck and Goetz (2011)에서 언급한 대로 온난화에 따른 식생 면적 증가가 식생 생산성과 연관되어 $CO_2$ 흡수작용을 강화하는 데 기여할 수 있음을 의미한다. Shao et al. (2013)에 따르면 21세기 말 누적 NEE는 증가가 전망되고 이는 특히 열대와 고위도 지역이 주요 흡수원으로 작용하였기 때문으로 그 원인을 설명하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 HadGEM2-CC에서는 전 지구 평균적으로 NEE 흡수가 증가하는 경향은 동일하게 전망하며, 이는 열대보다는 북반구 고위도지역인 유라시아와 북미 대륙에서 증가한 흡수가 그 원인으로 분석되었다(Fig. 8). 앞서 Mynenl et al. (1997)에 따르면 기온상승에 따라 식생의 광합성활동, 생장시기 길이와 시작시기의 당겨짐을 보고하였다. 본 연구 실험에서도 이와 유사하게 미래에 기온 상승에 따라 식생 성장 기간이 길어지고 LAI도 증가하며 식생 지대가 점차 고위도로 북상할 것을 전망하였다(Figs. 5, 12b). 이에 따라 육상 생태계의 $CO_2$ 흡수량은 20세기 말보다 21세기 말에 증가하였고 우리나라가 속해있는 동아시아지역($90^{\circ}E{\sim}140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$)은 기온, 강수뿐 아니라 $CO_2$ 흡수량도 같은 위도대의 전 지구 동서평균보다 크게 모의되었다. RCPs에 따른 흡수율은 21세기 중반까지는 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도 변화율과 유사한 경향을 보이는데 RCP 8.5에서는 21세기 후반에 흡수 증가율이 감소하며 이는 Liddicoat et al. (2013) 에서 보인것과 유사하다. 하지만 대기 중 $CO_2$의 증가와 식생분포 지역의 확대에도 불구하고 21세기 말 육상생태계의 순생태계흡수량은 크게 증가하지 않음을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 기온 상승이 크게 일어난 21세기 후반부터 토양 호흡의 급격한 증가로 인하여 육상생태계의 이산화탄소 흡수 능력은 감소한 것에 기인하였다. 향후 본 연구결과의 유의성을 확보하기 위해 다양한 모델의 자료를 추가할 필요가 있다. Shao et al. (2013)에 따르면 미래 탄소 흡수 전망에 있어 전 지구 및 위도별 모의 결과가 모델마다 매우 다양한데 이는 지면생태모형 간의 식생역학, 물리과정의 차이로 해석된다. 미래 육상생태계의 이산화탄소 흡수 능력의 변화와 기후변화를 보다 정확하게 예측하기 위해서는 다른 모델의 자료를 이용한 불확실성을 정량화 하는 것이 필요하며 이는 전 지구 및 지역별 탄소 순환 이해를 높이는 데 기여할 것이다.