• Title/Summary/Keyword: EWINIAR

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Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측)

  • Kim, Hogul;Lee, Dong-Kun;Mo, Yongwon;Kil, Sungho;Park, Chan;Lee, Soojae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2013
  • Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

Analysis of Landslide and Debris flow Hazard Area using Probabilistic Method in GIS-based (GIS 기반 확률론적 기법을 이용한 산사태 및 토석류 위험지역 분석)

  • Oh, Chae-Yeon;Jun, Kye-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.172-177
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    • 2012
  • In areas around Deoksan Li and Deokjeon Li, Inje Eup, Inje Gun, located between $38^{\circ}2^{\prime}55^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $38^{\circ}5^{\prime}50^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ in latitude and $128^{\circ}11^{\prime}20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and $128^{\circ}18^{\prime}20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ in longitude, large-sized avalanche disasters occurred due to Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006. As a result, 29 people were dead or missing, along with a total of 37.25 billion won of financial loss(Gangwon Province, 2006). To evaluate such landslide and debris flow risk areas and their vulnerability, this study applied a technique called 'Weight of Evidence' based on GIS. Especially based on the overlay analysis of aerial images before the occurrence of landslides and debris flows in 2005 and after 2006, this study extracted 475 damage-occurrence areas in a shape of point, and established a DB by using such factors as topography, hydrologic, soil and forest physiognomy through GIS. For the prediction diagram of debris flow and landslide risk areas, this study calculated W+ and W-, the weighted values of each factor of Weight Evidence, while overlaying the weighted values of factors. Besides, the diagram showed about 76% in prediction accuracy, and it was also found to have a relatively high correlationship with the areas where such natural disasters actually occurred.

Landslide Detection and Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using Aerial Photos and Artificial Neural Networks (항공사진을 이용한 산사태 탐지 및 인공신경망을 이용한 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this study is to detect landslide using digital aerial photography and apply the landslide to landslide susceptibility mapping by artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system (GIS) at Jinbu area where many landslides have occurred in 2006 by typhoon Ewiniar, Bilis and Kaemi. Landslide locations were identified by visual interpretation of aerial photography taken before and after landslide occurrence, and checked in field. For landslide susceptibility mapping, maps of the topography, geology, soil, forest, lineament, and landuse were constructed from the spatial data sets. Using the factors and landslide location and artificial neural network, the relative weight for the each factors was determinated by back-propagation algorithm. As the result, the aspect and slope factor showed higher weight in 1.2-1.5 times than other factors. Then, landslide susceptibility map was drawn using the weights and finally, the map was validated by comparing with landslide locations that were not used directly in the analysis. As the validation result, the prediction accuracy showed 81.44%.

Studies on Debris Flows by Heavy Rainfall in Osaek Area in July 2006 (2006년 7월 집중호우로 인한 오색천 유역의 토석류 발생과 그 특성)

  • YANG, Heakun;PARK, Kyeong
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2008
  • Typhoon Ewiniar and Bilis followed by heavy rainfall in July 2006 triggered massive slope failures and debris flows along the Osaek valley within Seoraksan National Park. Since national road 44 is constructed along the fault-line, the susceptibility of hazard in the area is very high. Debris flows in Osaekcheon are mobilized from landslides near the ridgelines and peaks when heavy rainfall elevates pore pressure and adds weight to the hillslopes, causing failure. Stream flows falling onto the existing colluvium or channel-margin deposits also trigger debris flows. Steep slopes constructed along the road and thin regolith in the slope is the main reason for the landslide in the upper stream. In middle reaches of stream, under-fit drainage utilities and narrow bridges cause the overflow, this then triggers debris flow. Overflowing and erosion in the channel margin deposits is main reasons for the debris flow. The intensities and frequencies of heavy rainfall are certain to increase, so early warning and management system for the landslide-related hazard is urgently needed.

Long-Term Water Quality Trend Analysis of Lake Soyang Using Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test (계절 Mann-Kendall 검정을 이용한 소양호의 장기 수질 경향성 분석)

  • Yeom, Hojeong;An, Yongbin;Jung, Seyoon;Kim, Yoonseok;Kim, Bomchul;Hong, Eunmi
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.66 no.2
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2024
  • The long-term monitoring of the Soyang Lake's water quality, covering 25% of the North Han River watershed, is crucial for effective management of both lake water quality and pollution sources in the broader region. This study utilized continuous monitoring data from the front of the Soyang Dam spanning 2003 to 2022, aiming to analyze trends and provide foundational insights for water quality management. Results revealed a slightly poor grade (IV) for total nitrogen (T-N) in both surface and mid-depth layers, indicating a need for concentrated T-N management. Trend analyses using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope depicted a decreasing trend in total phosphorus (T-P) for both layers, attributed to non-point source pollution reduction projects initiated after the Soyang Lake's designation as a pollution control area in 2007. The LOWESS analysis showed a T-P increase until 2006, followed by a decrease, influenced by the impact of Typhoon Ewiniar in that year. This 20-year overview establishes a comprehensive understanding of the Soyang Lake's water quality and trends, allowing for a seasonal and periodical analysis of water quality changes. The findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and management strategies to address evolving water quality issues in the Soyang Lake over time.

Phenology and Population Dynamics of Scirpus fluviatilis (Torr.) A. Gray in the Littoral Zone of the Upo Wetland (우포늪 연안대에서 매자기의 화력학과 개체군 변화)

  • Seo, Hye-Ran;Park, Sang-Yong;Oh, Kyung-Hwan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2009
  • Seasonal changes of the growth characteristics and biomass of Scirpus fluviatilis, a aquatic emergent vascular plant, were investigated to reveal the phenology and the population dynamics and to provide the fundamental resources for the restoration counterplan of the wetland vegetation in the littoral zone of the Upo wetland, Changnyeong-gun, Gyeongsangnam-do, Korea from March 2006 to November 2006. Scirpus fluviatilis was distributed commonly in Upo, Mokpo, Sajipo, Jokjibyeol, and Topyeongcheon upstream and downstream of Upo wetland, and the density was highest in Mokpo. Distribution range for the water depth was 9~49cm, and the highest shoot density in 26~49cm, and the mean shoot density was $119/m^2$, and the mean shoot length was 122.3cm on May 28. The number of the tuber was $104.5/0.25m^2$, and the living tubers were 84.2%. The mean fresh biomass of the living tubers was 3.0g, and those of 1~4g was most as 57.9%. Germination rates of the living tubers was 43.8%, and the maximum rate was in 7~9g and more than 10g. In the pot cultivation, the shoot density of the germinated tubers and the dormant tubers were highest as 13.5 and 9.7, respectively in early August. In the field study, the shoot density had few change before typhoon damage, while the density increased abruptly in November after flooding accompanied with the typhoon 'Ewiniar'. The shoot length in the pot cultivation and in the field study were 100~116cm and 60~170cm, respectively in the growth-end. Biomass allocation rates into the stem, leaf, flower, and underground parts were 8.9%, 6.6%, 0%, and 84.5%, respectively in the pot cultivation of the germinated tubers, and those of the dormant tubers were 7.1%, 7.1%, 0%, and 85.8%, respectively. The tuber number increased to 1.4~4.1 times by the growth-end, so it is concluded that Scirpus fluviatilis is mostly propagated by the vegetative reproduction.

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Characteristics of Typhoon in 2006 and Improvement of Typhoon Forecast (2006년 태풍 특징과 태풍 예보의 개선방향)

  • Cha, Eun-Jeong;Lee, Kyung-Hi;Park, Yun-Ho;Park, Jong-Sook;Shim, Jae-Kwan;In, Hee-Jin;Yoo, Hee-Dong;Kwon, Heok-Joe;Shin, Do-Shick
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.299-314
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to summarize tropical cyclone activity in 2006. Twenty three tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2006. The total number is less than the thirty-year (1971~2000) average frequency of 26.7. Out of twenty three tropical cyclones, fifteen cyclones reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest eight cyclones only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and five TS storms. The tropical cyclone season in 2006 began in May with the formation of CHANCHU (0601). The convective activity was slightly inactive around the Philippines from late June to early August. In addition, subtropical high was more enhanced than normal over the south of Japan from May to early August. Consequently, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines after late June, and many of them moved westwards to China. CHANCHU (0601), BILIS (0604), KAEMI (0605), PRAPIROON (0606) and SAOMI (0608) brought damage to China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the other hand, EWINIAR (0603) moved northwards and hit the Republic of Korea, causing damage to the country. From late August to early September, convective activity was temporarily inactive over the sea east of the Philippines. However, it turned active again after late September. Subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan after late August. Therefore, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines and moved northwards. WUKONG (0610) and SHANSHAN (0613) hit Japan to bring damage to the country. On the other hand, XANGSANE (0615) and CIMARON (0619) moved westwards in the South China Sea, causing damage to the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Another special feature in 2006 tropical cyclone activity is that IOKE (0612) formed in the central North Pacific crossed 180 degree longitude and moved into the western North Pacific. It has been four years since HUKO (0224) in 2002.

Objectification and validation of typhoon center intensity analysis based on MTSAT-1R satellite's infrared images (MTSAT-1R 위성 적외영상기반 태풍강도분석 객관화와 검증)

  • Park, Jeong-Hyun;Park, Jong-Seo;Kim, Baek-Min;Lee, Hee-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.219-223
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    • 2007
  • GMS(Geostational Meteorological Satellite), GOES(Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite), MTSAT(Multi-Funcional Transport Satellite) 등의 정지기상위성은 거의 매시간 기상상황을 감시하고 태풍정보를 실시간 분석할 수 있어 드보락(Dvorak, 1975)등에 의해 이를 이용한 가시영상이나 적외영상기반의 태풍중심강도를 분석기법(드보락의 VIS/IR 분석법) 및 적외강조영상 분석기법(드보락의 EIR 분석법)이 개발되었다(Dvorak,1975, 1984). 그러나 주관적인 드보락의 VIS/IR 분석 법 및 EIR 분석법에 의한 결과는 분석자마다 다를 수 있고,절차 또한 복잡하여 시급성을 요하는 태풍 분석에서 취약점으로 지적되어 왔다. 이러한 주관적 방법의 한계를 극복하기 위하여 디지럴화된 영상과 자동 객관화된 알고리즘을 적용하는 객관 드보락 기법 (Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique, 이하 AODT)이 개발되었고(Velden et al, 1998), Zehr(1989)에 의해 비행기 관측자료등을 통해 보정되고 있다. 기상청에서는 2001 년부터 GMS 위성 관측영상을 이용하여 태풍의 중심위치를 분석하고,태풍강도를 정량화하기 위해 주관 드보락 기법 (Subjective Dvorak Technique 이하 SDT)을 이용하여 태풍중심위치와 강도정보를 실시간 예보관 및 일반인에게 제공하고 있다. 그러나 주관적인 드보락 기법이 분석자에 따라 다른 결과가 도출 될 수 있어, 이를 보완하기 위해 QuikSCAT 해상풍 관측자료, 정지 및 극 궤도위성자료를 활용한 해수면온도 둥 위성 분석자료와 기타 관측자료를 참조하고 있다. 정지기상위성자료를 이용한 드보락기법은 적외영상만으로 태풍중심 위치와 강도를 분석할 수 있는 장점 외에 앞에서 열거한 몇 가지 극복되지 못한 한계도 있으나,SSM/I 둥 기타 위성자료의 관측시간대와 분석정보 부족 등으로 정지기상위성자료를 이용한 드보락 기법을 대체할만한 현업용 분석기법이 개발되지 못했다. 기상청에서는 기존의 태풍분석업무를 개선하기 위해서 2005년부터 AODT를 도입하여 그 성능을 시험분석하고, 2006년 6월부터 AODT를 현업화하여 실시간 태풍강도분석 에 활용하였으며 2006년 제 3호 태풍 에위니아(EWINIAR)부터 두리안(DURlAN)까지 19개 태풍 434개 시간대자료를 분석한 결과 SDT 강도분석결과와 0.90의 상관도를 보였다. 또한 AODT 알고리즘이 기본적으로 대서양에서 발생하는 태풍에 초점을 두고 개발되어 북서태평양에서 발생하는 태풍에 직접 적용하기에는 어려움이 있는 것으로 알려져 있으므로(Velden et al. 1998), 이의 개선을 위하여 태풍강도지수인 SDT CI(Current Intensity) 수와 AODT CI 수간의 통계적 관계를 밝히고 신경망을 이용한 비선형 주성분 분석 (Hieh,2004)등을 통해 AODT CI 수 보정 시도를 하였다. 이와 더불어, 기상청은 근원적 객관 알고리즘 개선을 위해 AODT 자체 알고리즘 분석과 위성자료 DB 구축 동의 노력을 기울이고 있다.

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An Assessment on the Hydraulic Characteristics of a Multi-dimensional Model in Response to Measurement Resolution and Spatial Interpolation Methods (지형자료의 해상도와 공간보간기법에 따른 다차원 수리모형의 유출 특성 평가)

  • Ahn, Jung-Min;Park, In-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2012
  • Due to the increasing demand to utilize water fronts and water resource effectively, a multi-dimensional model that provides detailed hydraulic characteristics is required in order to improve the decision making process. An EFDC model is a kind of multi-dimension model, and it requires detailed 3D (3-dimensional) terrain in order to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of stream flow. In the case of 3D terrain creation, especially river reaches, measurement resolution and spatial interpolation methods affect the detailed 3D topography which uses input data for EFDC simulation. Such results make hydraulic characteristics to be varied. This study aims to examine EFDC simulation results depending on the 3D topographies derived by separate measurement resolution and spatial interpolation methods. The study area is at the confluence of the Nakdong and Kuemho Rivers and the event rain implemented was Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006. As a result, in the case of the area-elevation curve, the difference by means of the interpolation methods was significant when applying the same measurement resolution, except at 160m resolution. Furthermore, when the measurement resolution was 80m or above, the difference in a cross-section was occurred. Meanwhile, the water level changes between interpolation methods were insignificant by the measurement resolution except when the Kriging method was used for the 160m measurement data. Velocity changes emerged according to the interpolation methods when measurement resolution was 80m or above and the Kriging method resulted in a velocity that had a considerable gap in relation to the results from other methods at a measurement resolution of 160m.

Application of Flood Discharge for Gumgang Watershed Using GIS-based K-DRUM (GIS기반 K-DRUM을 이용한 금강권 대유역 홍수유출 적용)

  • Park, Jin-Hyeog;Hur, Young-Teck
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2010
  • The distributed rainfall-runoff model which is developed in the country requires a lot of time and effort to generate input data. Also, it takes a lot of time to calculate discharge by numerical analysis based on kinematic wave theory in runoff process. Therefore, most river basins using the distributed model are of limited scale, such as small river basins. However, recently, the necessity of integrated watershed management has been increasing due to change of watershed management concept and discharge calculation of whole river basin, including upstream and downstream of dam. Thus, in this study, the feasibility of the GIS based physical distributed rainfall-runoff model, K-DRUM(K-water hydrologic & hydraulic Distributed RUnoff Model) which has been developed by own technology was reviewed in the flood discharge process for the Geum River basin, including Yongdam and Daecheong Dam Watersheds. GIS hydrological parameters were extracted from basic GIS data such as DEM, land cover and soil map, and used as input data of the model. Problems in running time and inaccuracy setting using the existing trial and error method were solved by applying an auto calibration method in setting initial soil moisture conditions. The accuracy of discharge analysis for application of the method was evaluated using VER, QER and Total Error in case of the typhoon 'Ewiniar' event. and the calculation results shows a good agreement with observed data.