• 제목/요약/키워드: ES(Expert System)

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A Novel Unweighted Combination Method for Business Failure Prediction Using Soft Set

  • Xu, Wei;Yang, Daoli
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.1489-1502
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    • 2019
  • This work introduces a novel unweighted combination method (UCSS) for business failure perdition (BFP). With considering features of BFP in the age of big data, UCSS integrates the quantitative and qualitative analysis by utilizing soft set theory (SS). We adopt the conventional expert system (ES) as the basic qualitative classifier, the logistic regression model (LR) and the support vector machine (SVM) as basic quantitative classifiers. Unlike other traditional combination methods, we employ soft set theory to integrate the results of each basic classifier without weighting. In this way, UCSS inherits the advantages of ES, LR, SVM, and SS. To verify the performance of UCSS, it is applied to real datasets. We adopt ES, LR, SVM, combination models utilizing the equal weight approach (CMEW), neural network algorithm (CMNN), rough set and D-S evidence theory (CMRD), and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and SS (CFBSS) as benchmarks. The superior performance of UCSS has been verified by the empirical experiments.

Soft Set Theory Oriented Forecast Combination Method for Business Failure Prediction

  • Xu, Wei;Xiao, Zhi
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.109-128
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents a new combined forecasting method that is guided by the soft set theory (CFBSS) to predict business failures with different sample sizes. The proposed method combines both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to improve forecasting performance. We considered an expert system (ES), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) as forecasting components whose weights are determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proposed procedure was applied to real data sets from Chinese listed firms. For performance comparison, single ES, LR, and SVM methods, the combined forecasting method based on equal weights (CFBEWs), the combined forecasting method based on neural networks (CFBNNs), and the combined forecasting method based on rough sets and the D-S theory (CFBRSDS) were also included in the empirical experiment. CFBSS obtains the highest forecasting accuracy and the second-best forecasting stability. The empirical results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of our method in terms of accuracy and stability.

유연생산시스템(FMS)에서의 기계-부품그룹 형성기법 (Machine-part Group Formation Methodology for Flexible Manufacturing Systems)

  • 노인규;권혁천
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 1991
  • This research is concerned with Machine-Part Group Formation(MPGF) methodology for Flexible Manufacturing Systems(FMS). The purpose of the research is to develop a new heuristic algorithm for effectively solving MPGF problem. The new algorithm is proposed and evaluated by 100 machine-part incidence matrices generated. The performance measures are (1) grouping ability of mutually exclusive block-diagonal form. (2) number of unit group and exceptional elements, and (3) grouping time. The new heuristic algorithm has the following characteristics to effectively conduct MPGF : (a) The mathematical model is presented for rapid forming the proper number of unit groups and grouping mutually exclusive block-diagonal form, (b) The simple and effective mathematical analysis method of Rank Order Clustering(ROC) algorithm is applied to minimize intra-group journeys in each group and exceptional elements in the whole group. The results are compared with those from Expert System(ES) algorithm and ROC algorithm. The results show that the new algorithm always gives the group of mutually exclusive block-diagonal form and better results(85%) than ES algorithm and ROC algorithm.

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보안 모델의 연동을 위한 블랙보드구조의 적용 (An Application of Blackboard Architecture for the Coordination among the Security Systems)

  • 서희석;조대호
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.91-105
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    • 2002
  • The attackers on Internet-connected systems we are seeing today are more serious and technically complex than those in the past. So it is beyond the scope of amy one system to deal with the intrusions. That the multiple IDSes (Intrusion Detection System) coordinate by sharing attacker's information for the effective detection of the intrusion is the effective method for improving the intrusion detection performance. The system which uses BBA (BlackBoard Architecture) for the information sharing can be easily expanded by adding new agents and increasing the number of BB (BlackBoard) levels. Moreover the subdivided levels of blackboard enhance the sensitivity of the intrusion detection. For the simulation, security models are constructed based on the DEVS (Discrete EVent system Specification) formalism. The intrusion detection agent uses the ES (Expert System). The intrusion detection system detects the intrusions using the blackboard and the firewall responses these detection information.

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블랙보드구조를 활용한 보안 모델의 연동 (Coordination among the Security Systems using the Blackboard Architecture)

  • 서희석;조대호
    • 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.310-319
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    • 2003
  • As the importance and the need for network security are increased, many organizations use the various security systems. They enable to construct the consistent integrated security environment by sharing the network vulnerable information among IDS (Intrusion Detection System), firewall and vulnerable scanner. The multiple IDSes coordinate by sharing attacker's information for the effective detection of the intrusion is the effective method for improving the intrusion detection performance. The system which uses BBA (Blackboard Architecture) for the information sharing can be easily expanded by adding new agents and increasing the number of BB (Blackboard) levels. Moreover the subdivided levels of blackboard enhance the sensitivity of the intrusion detection. For the simulation, security models are constructed based on the DEVS (Discrete Event system Specification) formalism. The intrusion detection agent uses the ES (Expert System). The intrusion detection system detects the intrusions using the blackboard and the firewall responses to these detection information.

유전프로그래밍에 의한 겐트리 크레인의 최적제어에 관한 연구 (Optimal Control of Gantry Crane Using Genetic Programming)

  • 이영진;배종일;이권순
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 1998년도 추계학술대회논문집:21세기에 대비한 지능형 통합항만관리
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we present a design of optimal 2-DOF PID controller for control of gantry crane which has to control swing motion and trolley position. For tuning the parameter of 2-DOF PID controller, we used evolution strategy(ES). During operate the crane system in yard, the goal is transporting the load to a goal position as quick as possible without rope oscillation. The crane is generally operated by an expert operator, but recently an automatic control system with high speed and rapid transportation is required. However, we developed an optimal controller which has to control the crane system with disturbance.

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진화전략을 이용한 컨테이너 크레인의 최적제어에 관한 연구 (An Optimal Control of Container Crane Using Evolution Strategy)

  • 이영진;이권순
    • 한국항만학회지
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 1998
  • During the operation of crane system in container yard, the objective is to transport the load to a goal position as quick as possible without rope oscillation. The container crane is generally operated by an expert operator, but recently an automatic control system with high speed and rapid transportation is required. Therefore, we developed an optimal controller which has to control the crane system with disturbances. In this paper, we present a design of optima 2-DOF PID controller for the control of gantry crane which has to control swing motion and trolley position. We used evolution strategy(ES) to tune the parameters of 2-DOF PID controller. It was compared with general PID controller. The computer simulations show that the proposed method has better performances than the other method.

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Heart Sound Recognition by Analysis of wavelet transform and Neural network.

  • Lee, Jung-Jun;Lee, Sang-Min;Hong, Seung-Hong
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전자공학회 2000년도 ITC-CSCC -2
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    • pp.1045-1048
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents the application of the wavelet transform analysis and the neural network method to the phonocardiogram (PCG) signal. Heart sound is a acoustic signal generated by cardiac valves, myocardium and blood flow and is a very complex and nonstationary signal composed of many source. Heart sound can be discriminated normal heart sound and heart murmur. Murmurs have broader frequency bandwidth than the normal ones and can occur at random position of cardiac cycle. In this paper, we classified the group of heart sound as normal heart sound(NO), pre-systolic murmur(PS), early systolic murmur(ES), late systolic murmur(LS), early diastolic murmur(ED). And we used the wavelet transform to shorten artifacts and strengthen the low level signal. The ANN system was trained and tested with the back- propagation algorithm from a large data set of examples-normal and abnormal signals classified by expert. The best ANN configuration occurred with 15 hidden layer neurons. We can get the accuracy of 85.6% by using the proposed algorithm.

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소나표적의 식별을 위한 진화적 PSR 추정기 (Evolutionary PSR Estimator for Classification of Sonar Target)

  • 김현식
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국해양정보통신학회 2008년도 지능정보 및 응용 학술대회
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    • pp.149-150
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    • 2008
  • 일반적으로, 소나 표적의 식별을 위한 PSR(Propeller Shaft Rate) 추정 알고리즘은 다음의 문제점들을 가지고 있다. 즉, 주파수 스펙트럼으로부터 하모닉군을 구별하는 것은 필수적이면서도 어렵기 때문에 정확하고 효율적인 구별법을 요구한다. 나아가, 구조와 파라메터에 있어서 용이한 설계 절차를 요구한다. 이 문제들을 해결하기 위해서 전문가 지식 및 진화 전략(ES : Evolution Strategy)을 이용하는 진화적인 PSR 추정기가 제안되었다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 제안된 알고리즘이 그 문제점들을 효과적으로 해결할 수 있음을 보여준다.

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소나 표적의 특징정보추출을 위한 진화적 PSR 추정 알고리즘 (Evolutionary PSR Estimation Algorithm for Feature Extraction of Sonar Target)

  • 김현식
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제18권5호
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    • pp.632-637
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    • 2008
  • 실제 시스템 적용에 있어서, 소나 표적의 특징정보추출을 위한 PSR(Propeller Shaft Rate) 추정 알고리즘은 다음과 같은 문제점들을 가지고 있다. 즉, 주파수 스펙트럼 기반의 소나 표적 식별에 있어서 다중의 스펙트럼 선들로부터 기본 주파수와 그 고조파들로 구성된 하모닉군을 구별하는 깃은 필수적이면서도 어렵기 때문에 정확하고 효율적인 기본주파수 발견법을 요구한다. 나아가, 구조와 파라메터에 있어서 용이한 설계 절차를 요구한다 이 문제들을 해결하기 위해서 전문가 지식 및 진화 전략(ES : Evolution Strategy)을 이용하는 진화적인PSR 추정 알고리즘이 제안되었다. 제안된 알고리즘의 성능을 검증하기 위해서는 소나 표적의 PSR 추정이 수행되었다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 제안된 알고리즘이 실시간 시스템 적용에서 존재하는 문제점들을 효과적으로 해결할 수 있음을 보여준다.