• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.21-23
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• 2016

There are so much oil and gas reserves in Iran. Therefore extraction from these reserves and sell extracted oil and gas in international markets causes to high oil income for Iran. Especially in some years which oil price increases, our oil income was too high. In this paper, we want to reveal that, high oil income is not cause to rise of nonoil export. For this aim, we use from data of 1971-2013 and with Johansen co-integration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) extract short run and long run relations. Results of estimation reveal that in Iran high oil income is not cause to many non oil exports in long run and short run. Therefore, we should allocate oil income to import industrial machines and reallocate them to agriculture and industrial sectors which causes to raise national production which will cause to high non oil export. Then, in this condition, our needy exchanges are provided from non oil export and our dependence to oil income will be declined.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.229-238
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• 2021

The article applies the ECM - ARDL model to examine the relationship between economic indicators and the existence of the disease in the long run of 10 ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019. There are two models: The first model investigates the impact of GDP per capita, net inflow FDI, unemployment rate, and inflation rate on the proportion of export to GDP of ASEAN countries, the second model is similar to the first one but adds one more variable to the independent variable list - 'the variable for disease'. The results prove the long-run effect of GDP per capita, FDI, unemployment and inflation rate on export of the selected countries, though individual country shows differences in the sign and magnitude of these impacts. Surprisingly, the number of people suffering from disease does not affect the export of all selected countries as expected. The results of the two models also indicate that the disequilibrium in the short run converges to the equilibrium in the long run with a high proportion, especially in the case of Cambodia and the Philippines, with the rate of 95.65% and 151.94%, respectively. The findings can be useful for policymakers in promulgating efficient policies to enhance the trading activities of the selected countries.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.405-421
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• 2019

Predicting how much energy to use is an important issue in society. However, it is more difficult to capture the usage characteristics of residential buildings than other buildings. This paper provides time series analysis methods for electricity consumption in a residential building. Temperature is closely related to electricity demand. An error correction model, which is a method of adjusting the error with time, is applied when a cointegration relation is established between variables. Therefore, we analyze data via ECMs with consideration of the temperature effect.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.731-740
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.311-342
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• 2015

We evaluate two main rationales of massive policy intervention of Lee Administration in the Korean transportation fuel market: high market share of domestic refineries, perceived by the Administration as the result of high market concentration, and asymmetry in price adjustment, perceived as the result of collusion. Domestic refineries, huge in capacity and located at seaports, maintain international competitiveness in price. Considering market openness offering preferential treatment to importers, they set domestic prices competitively on the basis of MOPS prices. Yet, the price competitiveness of domestic refineries is so high that they are able to sustain high market share. We confirm that the Korean before-tax consumer prices of gasoline and diesel are lower than Japan's and the weighted averages of 27 EU countries by as much as 159KRW and 21KRW per liter in the case of gasoline and 170KRW and 63KRW in the case of diesel. Price asymmetry is caused by diverse economic and managerial reasons and, as FTC (2005) states, price asymmetry does not immediately imply exercise of market power or collusion. We analyzed price asymmetry in Korea, Japan and 14 EU countries, and found asymmetry in Korea and 11 EU countries in the case of gasoline and in Korea and 8 EU countries in the case of diesel.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.97-105
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• 2014

This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.81-102
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• 2017

This study examined the income and price elasticities of tourism demand model by using the ARDL models. This paper used the ARDL & ARDL-RECM model based on the annual number of tourists arrivals, GDP and CPI including tourists from the US, Japan and China entering Korea. First, the income elasticity of the US was inelastic and insensitive necessities for long-run US tourists in the ARDL model. China's income elasticity was elastically sensitive luxuries. Second, the US and China's own price elasticities were very elastic to tourism demand in both models. Third, the US's cross price elasticity showed the relationship between inelastic positive substitutes and inelastic negative complements in China in ARDL model. The cross price elasticities of the US and China showed inelastic positive substitutes in the ARDL-RECM model. Fourth, the coefficients of the error correction term were such that the actual sign and the expected sign of the US and China coincided with the negative sign in the ARDL-RECM model. Therefore, first, it can be established in a tourist policy or tourism strategy through income elasticity. Second, we can improve the quality and differentiation of products, recognizing that Korea's tourism price is more elastic than other markets through price elasticity.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.79-100
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze the market power of the Korea Container Shipping Market (Intra Asia, Korea-Europe, and Korea-U.S.) to verify the existence of collusion empirically, and to answer whether the joint actions of liner market participants in Korea have formed market dominance for each route. Precisely, it will be verified through the Lerner index as to whether the regional market of Asia is a monopoly, oligopoly, or perfect competition. Design/methodology - This study used a Lerner index adjusted with elasticity presented in the New Imperial Organization (NEIO) studies. NEIO refers to a series of empirical studies that estimate parameters to judge market power from industrial data. This study uses B-L empirical models by Bresnahan (1982) and Lau (1982). In addition, NEIO research data statistically contain self-regression and stability problems as price and time series data. A dynamic model following Steen and Salvanes' Error Correction Model was used to solve this problem. Findings - The empirical results are as follows. First, λ, representing market power, is nearly zero in all three markets. Second, the Korean shipping market shows low demand elasticity on average. Nevertheless, the markup is low, a characteristic that is difficult to see in other industries. Third, the Korean shipping market generally remains close to perfect competition from 2014 to 2022, but extreme market power appears in a specific period, such as COVID-19. Fourth, there was no market power in the Intra Asia market from 2008 to 2014. Originality/value - Doubts about perfect competition in the liner market continued, but there were few empirical cases. This paper confirmed that the Korea liner market is a perfect competition market. This paper is the first to implement dynamics using ECM and recursive regression to demonstrate market power in the Korean liner market by dividing the shipping market into Deep Sea and Intra Asia separately. It is also the first to prove the most controversial problems in the current shipping industry numerically and academically.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.97-122
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• 2013

The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.