• Title/Summary/Keyword: Duration of Risk

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Study on Measurement of Flood Risk and Forecasting Model (홍수 위험도 척도 및 예측모형 연구)

  • Kwon, S.H.;Oh, H.S.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.118-123
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    • 2015
  • There have been various studies on measurements of flood risk and forecasting models. For river and dam region, PDF and FVI has been proposed for measurement of flood risk and regression models have been applied for forecasting model. For Bo region unlikely river or dam region, flood risk would unexpectedly increase due to outgoing water to keep water amount under the designated risk level even the drain system could hardly manage the water amount. GFI and general linear model was proposed for flood risk measurement and forecasting model. In this paper, FVI with the consideration of duration on GFI was proposed for flood risk measurement at Bo region. General linear model was applied to the empirical data from Bo region of Nadong river to derive the forecasting model of FVI at three different values of Base High Level, 2m, 2.5m and 3m. The significant predictor variables on the target variable, FVI were as follows: ground water level based on sea level with negative effect, difference between ground altitude of ground water and river level with negative effect, and difference between ground water level and river level after Bo water being filled with positive sign for quantitative variables. And for qualitative variable, effective soil depth and ground soil type were significant for FVI.

Foot Ulcer Risk, Foot Care Knowledge, and Foot Care Practice in Patients with Type 2 Diabetics (제2형 당뇨병 환자의 발궤양 위험, 발관리 지식 및 발관리 수행)

  • Koh, Nam-Kyung;Song, Misoon
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate foot ulcer risk factors, foot care knowledge, and foot care practice in patients with type 2 diabetes. Method: One hundred fifty type 2 diabetic patients were in and out-patients in a large urban hospital. The data were collected using a self-report questionnaire, chart review and foot examination. The questionnaires were developed by the researchers through the experts consultation and literature review. High risk for foot ulcer was evaluated by peripheral neuropathy(PN), peripheral vascular disease(PVD), and prior foot ulcer. Foot risk scores(FRS) means numbers of present risk factors. Results: 31.3% of subjects show 1 FRS, and 13.3% showed 2 FRS. Mean foot care frequency was 3.5 times per week. There were significant differences in foot care knowledge according to DM education (t=2.96, p=.004) and foot care education (t=3.65, p=.001). There were significant differences in the foot care practice activities according to duration of DM (t=3.48, p=.010) and educational levels. Conclusion: There were high proportion of foot ulcer risk among the patients. It is necessary to screen high risk foot ulcer patients and provide practical education for foot care practice of diabetic patients.

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Comparison of Six Observational Methods for Assessing Arm- and Hand-intensive Tasks (어깨 및 팔 동작 부하 측정을 위한 관찰적 기법 비교)

  • Dohyung Kee
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to compare six observational methods for assessing arm- and hand-intensive tasks, based on literature review. The comparison was conducted in viewpoints of body regions, force/external load, motion repetition, other factors including static posture, coupling, duration/break, pace, temperature, precision task, and final risk or exposure level. The number of risk factors assessed was more, and assessment procedure was more complex than the observational methods for assessing whole-body postural loads such as Ovako Working Posture Analysis System(OWAS), Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA), and Rapid Entire Body Assessment(REBA). Due to these, the intra- and inter-reliabilities were not high. A past study showed that while Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method(HARM) identified the smallest proportion of the work tasks as high risk, Strain Index(SI) and Quick Exposure Check(QEC) hand/wrist were the most rigorous with classifying most work tasks as high risk. This study showed that depending on the observational technique compared, the evaluation factors, risk or exposure level, and evaluation results were different, making it necessary to select a technique appropriate for the characteristics of the work being assessed.

The Impact of Mechanical Ventilation Duration on the Readmission to Intensive Care Unit: A Population-Based Observational Study

  • Lee, Hyun Woo;Cho, Young-Jae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.83 no.4
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    • pp.303-311
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    • 2020
  • Background: If the duration of mechanical ventilation (MV) is related with the intensive care unit (ICU) readmission must be clarified. The purpose of this study was to elucidate if prolonged MV duration increases ICU readmission rate. Methods: The present observational cohort study analyzed national healthcare claims data from 2006 to 2015. Critically ill patients who received MV in the ICU were classified into five groups according to the MV duration: MV for <7 days, 7-13 days, 14-20 days, 21-27 days, and ≥28 days. The rate and risk of the ICU readmission were estimated according to the MV duration using the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results: We found that 12,929 patients had at least one episode of MV in the ICU. There was a significant linear relationship between the MV duration and the ICU readmission (R2=0.85, p=0.025). The total readmission rate was significantly higher as the MV duration is prolonged (MV for <7 days, 13.9%; for 7-13 days, 16.7%; for 14-20 days, 19.4%; for 21-27 days, 20.4%; for ≥28 days, 35.7%; p<0.001). The analyses adjusted by covariables and weighted with the multinomial propensity scores showed similar results. In the adjusted regression analysis with a Cox proportional hazards model, the MV duration was significantly related to the ICU readmission (hazard ratio, 1.058 [95% confidence interval, 1.047-1.069], p<0.001). Conclusion: The rate of readmission to the ICU was significantly higher in patients who received longer durations of the MV in the ICU. In the clinical setting, closer observation of patients discharged from the ICU after prolonged periods of MV is required.

Prioritization of Price Volatility Management Strategies in Construction Projects

  • Joukar, Alireza;Nahmens, Isabelina;Harvey, Craig
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2017
  • The existence of material price volatility in construction projects puts forward substantial risks for all parties involved. Depending on the parties involved in the project, type of contracts, and state of the market various risk management strategies are practiced by contracting parties to manage project risks related to price volatility. Unfortunately, in many cases companies fail to select an adequate approach to better manage volatilities of material prices due to the lack of a decision support system to aid in the selection of an appropriate strategy based on the project characteristics. The aim of this study is to identify critical project factors and align them to documented strategies to manage price volatility based on an extensive literature review and industry interviews. This study found Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as the ideal strategy with respect to project duration; quantitative risk management methods with respect to the cost; and Price Adjustment Clauses (PAC) with respect to the risk allocation, as the top price volatility management strategies.

New in vitro multiple cardiac ion channel screening system for preclinical Torsades de Pointes risk prediction under the Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay concepta

  • Jin Ryeol An;Seo-Yeong Mun;In Kyo Jung;Kwan Soo Kim;Chan Hyeok Kwon;Sun Ok Choi;Won Sun Park
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • Cardiotoxicity, particularly drug-induced Torsades de Pointes (TdP), is a concern in drug safety assessment. The recent establishment of human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (human iPSC-CMs) has become an attractive human-based platform for predicting cardiotoxicity. Moreover, electrophysiological assessment of multiple cardiac ion channel blocks is emerging as an important parameter to recapitulate proarrhythmic cardiotoxicity. Therefore, we aimed to establish a novel in vitro multiple cardiac ion channel screening-based method using human iPSC-CMs to predict the drug-induced arrhythmogenic risk. To explain the cellular mechanisms underlying the cardiotoxicity of three representative TdP high- (sotalol), intermediate- (chlorpromazine), and low-risk (mexiletine) drugs, and their effects on the cardiac action potential (AP) waveform and voltage-gated ion channels were explored using human iPSC-CMs. In a proof-of-principle experiment, we investigated the effects of cardioactive channel inhibitors on the electrophysiological profile of human iPSC-CMs before evaluating the cardiotoxicity of these drugs. In human iPSC-CMs, sotalol prolonged the AP duration and reduced the total amplitude (TA) via selective inhibition of IKr and INa currents, which are associated with an increased risk of ventricular tachycardia TdP. In contrast, chlorpromazine did not affect the TA; however, it slightly increased AP duration via balanced inhibition of IKr and ICa currents. Moreover, mexiletine did not affect the TA, yet slightly reduced the AP duration via dominant inhibition of ICa currents, which are associated with a decreased risk of ventricular tachycardia TdP. Based on these results, we suggest that human iPSC-CMs can be extended to other preclinical protocols and can supplement drug safety assessments.

Variation of Load Management Incentive Considering Prenotification Period (예고기간별 차이를 반영한 부하조정제도 지원금 차등방안)

  • Won, Jong-Ryul
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.61 no.11
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    • pp.1578-1583
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    • 2012
  • There are 3 systems in incentive-based normal load management in Korea; day or hour-ahead, week-ahead, months-ahead. These are originally similar in their operational implementation, but differ in their pre-notification period. Therefore the incentive of these systems should be different according to prenotification period. This is the key problem in implementing these load managements. Customers participating in these load managements feel their economic differences, depending on the risk by prenotification dates. The shorter prenotification period, the more risk take the customers. This paper proposes the method of incentive variation in prenotification difference, by using the theory of financial yield curve, which is used in analysing short and long duration bond interesting rates and is reflecting risk premium in their period.

A study on synthetic risk management on market risk of financial assets(focus on VaR model) (시장위험에 대한 금융자산의 종합적 위험관리(VaR모형 중심))

  • 김종권
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.22 no.49
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 1999
  • The recent trend is that risk management has more and more its importance. Neverthless, Korea's risk management is not developed. Even most banks does gap, duration in ALM for risk management, development and operation of VaR stressed at BIS have elementary level. In the case of Fallon and Pritsker, Marshall, gamma model is superior to delta model and Monte Carlo Simulation is improved at its result, as sample number is increased. And, nonparametric model is superior to parametric model. In the case of Korea's stock portfolio, VaR of Monte Carlo Simulation and Full Variance Covariance Model is less than that of Diagonal Model. The reason is that VaR of Full Variance Covariance Model is more precise than that of Diagonal Model. By the way, in the case of interest rate, result of monte carlo simulation is less than that of delta-gamma analysis on 95% confidence level. But, result of 99% is reversed. Therefore, result of which method is not dominated. It means two fact at forecast on volatility of stock and interest rate portfolio. First, in Delta-gamma method and Monte Carlo Simulation, assumption of distribution affects Value at Risk. Second, Value at Risk depends on test method. And, if option price is included, test results will have difference between the two. Therefore, If interest rate futures and option market is open, Korea's findings is supposed to like results of other advanced countries. And, every banks try to develop its internal model.

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Risk Factors for Postoperative Delirium after Liver Transplantation in the Intensive Care Unit (간이식 후 중환자실에서의 섬망 발생 위험요인)

  • Cha, Ok-Hee;Yoo, Yang-Sook;Choi, Jung-Eun;Kim, Nam-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.290-299
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence, incidence, duration and risk factors for delirium following liver transplantation while the patients were in the acute stage and admitted to the intensive care unit. Method: A retrospective chart review of 106 patients who had liver transplantation was conducted. A delirium risk factor checklist was used, to collect preoperative and postoperative data. Descriptive analysis, t-test, x2-test, and logistic regression analyses were used for data analysis. Results: The post-transplantation incidence of delirium was 29.3% (n=31). Multivariate analysis revealed that risk factors were preoperative conditions in the patients including spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, and postoperative laboratory test results, such as hyperbilirubinemia. Conclusion: Therefore, a daily delirium risk factor assessment should be conducted before liver transplantation as a way to identify risk of delirium after the liver transplantation and to effectively manage delirium when it occurs.

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Incidence and Predictors of Cataract among People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Using Secondary Data Analysis from the Ansan Cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

  • Jeong, Ihn Sook;Lee, Eun Joo;Kim, Myo Sung;Yu, Jung Ok;Yun, Hae Sun;Jeong, Jeong Hee;Hwang, Youn Sun
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study investigated the incidence and risk factors of cataract in people with diabetes mellitus (DM) using data from Ansan cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES). Methods: Data from a total of 329 patients with type 2 DM without cataract who participated in Ansan cohort of the KoGES from baseline survey (2001-2002) to fifth follow-up visit (2011-2012) were examined. The characteristics of the subjects were analyzed with frequency and percentage, and mean and standard deviation. Cataract incidence was measured as incidence proportion (%). For risk factors of cataract, hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were obtained using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The cataract incidence over a 10-year follow-up period was 19.1% (15.1 in males and 25.8 in females), and mean age at the incidence of cataract was 63.48 years (61.58 years in males and 65.31 years in females). Age (HR=1.09, 95% CI=1.05-1.13) and HbA1c (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.07-1.37) or the duration of DM (HR=1.05, 95% CI=1.00-1.09) were found to be independently associated with cataract development. Conclusion: Cataract development in people with DM is common, and its likelihood increases with age, HbA1c, and the duration of DM. Considering negative effect of cataract on their quality of life and economic burden, nurses should identify people with DM at a higher risk of cataract development, and plan individual eye examination programs to detect cataract development as early as possible.