• Title/Summary/Keyword: Distribution statistical model

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A study of artificial neural network for in-situ air temperature mapping using satellite data in urban area (위성 정보를 활용한 도심 지역 기온자료 지도화를 위한 인공신경망 적용 연구)

  • Jeon, Hyunho;Jeong, Jaehwan;Cho, Seongkeun;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.855-863
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to mapping air temperature in Seoul. MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiomter (MODIS) data was used as auxiliary data for mapping. For the ANN network topology optimizing, scatterplots and statistical analysis were conducted, and input-data was classified and combined that highly correlated data which surface temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), time (satellite observation time, Day of year), location (latitude, hardness), and data quality (cloudness). When machine learning was conducted only with data with a high correlation with air temperature, the average values of correlation coefficient (r) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were 0.967 and 2.708℃. In addition, the performance improved as other data were added, and when all data were utilized the average values of r and RMSE were 0.9840 and 1.883℃, which showed the best performance. In the Seoul air temperature map by the ANN model, the air temperature was appropriately calculated for each pixels topographic characteristics, and it will be possible to analyze the air temperature distribution in city-level and national-level by expanding research areas and diversifying satellite data.

A Study on the Use of Retailtech and Intention to Accept Technology based on Experiential Marketing (체험마케팅에 기반한 리테일테크 활용과 기술수용의도에 관한 연구)

  • Sangho Lee;Kwangmoon Cho
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to determine how the use of retailtech technology affects consumers' purchase intention. Furthermore, this study aims to investigate the mediating effects of technology usefulness and ease of use on this influence relationship and whether experiential marketing moderates consumers' purchase intention. The survey was conducted from August 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023, and a total of 257 people participated in the study. For statistical analysis, hierarchical regression analysis, three-stage mediation regression analysis, and hierarchical three-stage controlled regression analysis were conducted to test the hypothesis. The results of the study are as follows. First, it was confirmed that big data-AI utilization, mobile-SNS utilization, live commerce utilization, and IoT utilization affect purchase intention in retail technology utilization. Second, technology usefulness has a mediating effect on IoT utilization, mobile-SNS utilization, and big data-AI utilization. Third, perceived ease of use of technology mediated the effects of IoT utilization, mobile-SNS utilization, live-commerce utilization, and big data-AI utilization. Fourth, escapist experience has a moderating effect on mobile SNS utilization and live commerce utilization. Fifth, esthetic experience has a moderating effect on mobile-SNS utilization and big data-AI utilization. Through this study, we hope that the domestic distribution industry will contribute to national competitiveness by securing the competitive advantage of companies by utilizing new technologies in entering the global market.

THE ELECTROMAGNETIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POLAR IONOSPHERE DURING A MODERATELY DISTURBED PERIOD (지자기교란시 극전리층의 전자기적인 특성)

  • 안병호
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.216-233
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    • 1995
  • The distributions of the ionospheric conductivities, electric potential, ionospheric currents, field-aligned currents, Joule heating rate, and particle energy input rate by auroral electrons along with the characteristics of auroral particle spectrum are examined during moderately disturbed period by using the computer code developed by Kamide et al. (1981) and the ionospheric conductivity model developed by Ahn et al. (1995). Since the ground magnetic disturbance data are obtained from a single meridian chain of magnetometers (Alaska meridian chain) for an extended period of time (March 9 - April 27, 1978), they are expected to present the average picture of the electrodynamics over the entire polar ionosphere. A number of global features noted in this study are as follows: (1) The electric potential distribution is characterized by the so-called two cell convection pattern with the positive potential cell in the morning sector extending into the evening sector. (2) The auroral electrojet system is well developed during this time period with the signatures of DP-1 and DP-2 current systems being clearly discernable. It is also noted that the electric field seems to play a more important role than the ionospheric conductivity the conductivity over the poleward half of the westward electrojet in the morning sector while the conductivity enhancement seems to be more important over its equatorward half. (3) The global field-aligned current distribution pattern is quite comparable with the statistical result obtained by Iijima and Potemra (1976). However, the current density of Region 1 is much higher than that of Region 2 current at pointed out by pervious studies (e.g.; Kamide 1988). (4) The Joule heating occurs over a couple of island-like areas, one along the poleward side of the westward electrojet region in the afternoon sector. (5) The maximum average energy of precipitating electrons is found to be in the morning sector (07∼08 MLT) while the maximum energy flux is registered in the postmidnight sector (02 MLT). Thus auroral brightening and enhancement of ionospheric conductivity during disturbed period seem to be more closely associated with enhancement of particle flux rather than hardening of particle energy.

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A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.

Estimation of Forest Productivity for Post-Wild-fire Restoration in East Coastal Areas (동해안 산불피해지 복구를 위한 산림생산력의 추정)

  • Koo, Kyo-Sang;Lee, Myung-Jong;Shin, Man-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.36-44
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    • 2010
  • In order to rehabilitate forest sites damaged by wildfire via natural or artificial restoration, it is important to determine right tree species, which can acclimate to biogeoclimatic environment at the sites. The objectives of this study were to develop site index equation of different tree species for estimating forest productivity and to provide information on species selection for post-wildfire restoration. Site index equation was developed based on environmental information from wildfire damaged areas in Gangneung, Goseong, Donghae, and Samcheok, where were located in east coastal areas of South Korea. Despite the small numbers (4~5) of environmental variables used for the development of the site index equations, statistical analysis (e.g. mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference) showed relatively low bias and variation, suggesting that those equations can provide relatively high capability of estimation and practical applicability with high effectiveness. The small numbers of the variables enabled the model to be applied in a wide range of usages including determination of appropriate tree species for post-wildfire restoration. The estimation of forest site productivity showed the possibility of large distribution in east coastal region as the best site for Korean ash (Fraxinus rhynchophylla) and original oak (Quercus variabilis) that can be used for firebreak in the region. These results imply that damages by forest fire can be reduced significantly by replacing existing pure coniferous forests in the area with ones dominated by broad-leaved deciduous stands, which can play an important role as fire break and/or prevent a transition from surface fire to crown fire.

Study on Operating Strategy for Recreation Forests through Comparing the Level of User Satisfaction according to Clusters (군집별 만족도 비교를 통한 자연휴양림의 효율적 운영 방안 연구)

  • Gang, Kee-Rae;Lee, Kee-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2010
  • Recreation forests are in the spotlight as the place for personality development, mind and body comfort, companionship, and environment education in forests and valleys. Visitors to recreation forests have been on the increase along with booming in recreation forest building since 1988. Recreation forests are being categorized according to some features such as regional and environmental condition. Recreation forests, however, have not met the expectations of some visitors who want to take a rest with calmness due to the influence of the 5-day-work-week system, increasing interest in rest, leisure, and well-being, and users converge during weekends, summer, and the tourist season. In order to improve visitors' satisfaction efficiently, this study surveyed the level of satisfaction in each cluster based on the precedent study which had classified 85 national or public recreation forests in Korea into clusters. Questionnaires were distributed properly to each cluster and, of the 1,132 questionnaires collected, 1,015 were valid and used for analysis. Reliability of questionnaires and statistical validity of the model were verified. As a result, there are meaningful differences in the ranking of independent variables which affect the level of satisfaction according to clusters. Variables in rest and fatigue recovery have the strongest influence on the level of satisfaction in the clusters of potential factor, internal activation factor, and mixed potential capacity factor. In the use performance and visiting condition factor cluster, appropriateness of visit cost is most influential and, in the education cluster, connectivity with tourist attractions around it is most affective. These results can provide priority in services and maintenance of recreation forests for improving the level of satisfaction and differentiate the distribution of resources according to clusters.

Study on the LOWTRAN7 Simulation of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Using CAGEX Data. (CAGEX 관측자료를 이용한 LOWTRAN7의 대기 복사전달 모의에 대한 조사)

  • 장광미;권태영;박경윤
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 1997
  • Solar radiation is scattered and absorbed atmospheric compositions in the atmosphere before it reaches the surface and, then after reflected at the surface, until it reaches the satellite sensor. Therefore, consideration of the radiative transfer through the atmosphere is essential for the quantitave analysis of the satellite sensed data, specially at shortwave region. This study examined a feasibility of using radiative transfer code for estimating the atmospheric effects on satellite remote sensing data. To do this, the flux simulated by LOWTRAN7 is compared with CAGEX data in shortwave region. The CAGEX (CERES/ARM/GEWEX Experiment) data provides a dataset of (1) atmospheric soundings, aerosol optical depth and albedo, (2) ARM(Aerosol Radiation Measurement) radiation flux measured by pyrgeometers, pyrheliometer and shadow pyranometer and (3) broadband shortwave flux simulated by Fu-Liou's radiative transfer code. To simulate aerosol effect using the radiative transfer model, the aerosol optical characteristics were extracted from observed aerosol column optical depth, Spinhirne's experimental vertical distribution of scattering coefficient and D'Almeida's statistical atmospheric aerosols radiative characteristics. Simulation of LOWTRAN7 are performed on 31 sample of completely clear days. LOWTRAN's result and CAGEX data are compared on upward, downward direct, downward diffuse solar flux at the surface and upward solar flux at the top of the atmosphere(TOA). The standard errors in LOWTRAN7 simulation of the above components are within 5% except for the downward diffuse solar flux at the surface(6.9%). The results show that a large part of error in LOWTRAN7 flux simulation appeared in the diffuse component due to scattering mainly by atmispheric aerosol. For improving the accuracy of radiative transfer simulation by model, there is a need to provide better information about the radiative charateristrics of atmospheric aerosols.

Pulmonary Resection in the Treatment of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (다제 내성 폐결핵환자의 폐절제술에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Eun-Soo;Ha, Hyun-Cheol;Hwang, Su-Hee;Lee, Hung-Yol;Park, Seung-Kyu;Song, Sun-Dae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1143-1153
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    • 1998
  • Background : Recent outbreaks of pulmonary disease due to drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis have resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in patients worldwide. We reviewed our experience to evaluate the effects of pulmonary resection on the management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Method : A retrospective review was performed of 41 patients undergoing pulmonary resection for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis between January 1993 and December 1997. We divided these into 3 groups according to the radiologic findings : (1) patients who have reasonably localized lesion (Localized Lesion Group ; LLG) (2) patients who have cavitary lesions after pulmonary resection on chest roentgenogram (Remained Cavity Group : RCG) (3) patients who have Remained infiltrative lesions postoperatively (Remained infiltrative group : RIG). We evaluated the negative conversion rate after resection and overall response rate of the groups. Then they were compared with the results of the chemotherapy on the multi drug-resistant tuberculosis which has been outcome by Goble et al. Goble et al reported that negative conversion rate was 65% and overall response rate, 56% over a mean period of 5.1 months. Results : Seventy five point six percent were men and 24.4% women with a median age of 31 years (range, 16 to 60 years). Although the patients were treated preoperatively with multidrug regimens in an effort to reduce the mycobacterial burden, 22 of 41 were still sputum culture positive at the time of surgery. 20 of 22 patients(90.9%, p<0.01) responded which is defined as negative sputum cultures within 2 months postoperative. Of 26 patients with the sufficient follow up data, 19 have Remained sputum culture negative for a mean duration of 25.7 months (73.1%, p<0.05). The bulk of the disease was manifest in one lung, but lesser amounts of contralateral disease were demonstrated in 15, consisted of 8 in RIG and 7 in RCG, of 41. 12 of 12 patients (100%, p<0.01) who were sputum positive at the time of surgery in LLG converted successfully. 14 of 15 patients (93.3%, p<0.05) with the follow up have completed treatment and not relapsed for a mean period of 25. 7 months. The mean length of postoperative drug therapy of LLG was 12.2 months. In RIG, postoperative negative conversion rate was 83.3% which was not significant statistically. There was a statistical significance in overall response rate (100%, p<0.05) of RIG for a mean period of 24.4 months with a mean length of postoperative chemotherapy, 11.8 months. In RCG a statistically lower overall response rate (14.3%, p<0.01) has been revealed for a mean duration of follow up, 24.2 months. A negative conversion rate of RCG was 75% which was not significant statistically. Conclusion : Surgery plays an important role in the management of patients with multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Aggressive pulmonary resection should be performed for resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to avoid treatment failure or relapse. Especially all cavitary lesions on preoperative chest roentgenogram should be resected completely. If all of them could not be resected perfectly, you should not open the thorax.

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An Analysis of the Differences in Management Performance by Business Categories from the Perspective of Small Business Systematization (영세 소상공인 조직화에 대한 직능업종별 차이분석과 경영성과)

  • Suh, Geun-Ha;Seo, Mi-Ok;Yoon, Sung-Wook
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to survey the successful cases of small and medium Business Systematization Cognition by examining their entrepreneurial characteristics and analysing the factors affecting their success. To that end, previous studies on the association types of small businesses were studied. A research model was developed, and research hypotheses for an empirical analysis were established upon it. Suh et al. (2010) insist on the importance of Small Business Systematization in Korea but also show that small business performance is suffering: they are too small to stand alone. That is why association is so crucial for them: they must stand together. Unfortunately, association is difficult, as they have few specific links and little motivation. Even in franchising networks, association tends to be initiated by big franchisers, not small ones. In that sense, association among small businesses is crucial for their long-term survival. With this in mind, this study examines how they think and feel about the issue of 'Industrial Classification', how important Industrial Classification is to their business success, and what kinds of problems it raises in the markets. This study seeks the different cognitions among the association types of small businesses from the perspectives of participation motivation, systematization expectation, policy demand level, and management performance. We assume that different industrial classification types of small businesses will have different cognitions concerning these factors. There are four basic industrial classification types of small businesses: retail sales, restaurant, service, and manufacturing. To date, most of the studies in this area have focused on collecting data on the external environments of small businesses or performing statistical analyses on their status. In this study, we surveyed 4 market areas in Busan, Masan, and Changwon in Korea, where business associations consist of merchants, shop owners, and traders. We surveyed 330 shops and merchants by sending a questionnaire or visiting. Finally, 268 questionnaires were collected and used for the analysis. An ANOVA, T-test, and regression analyses were conducted to test the research hypotheses. The results demonstrate that there are differences in cognition depending upon the industrial classification type. Restaurants generally have a higher cognition concerning job offer problems and a lower cognition concerning their competitiveness. Restaurants also depend more on systematization expectation than do the other industrial classification types. On the policy demand level, restaurants have a higher cognition. This study identifies several factors that are contributing to management performance through differences in cognition that depend upon association type: systematization expectation and policy demand level have positive effects on management performance; participation motivation has a negative effect on management performance. We confirm also that the image factors of different cognitions are linked to an awareness of the value of systematization and that these factors show sequential and continual patterns in the course of generating performances. In conclusion, this study carries significant implications in its classifying of small businesses into the four different associational types (retail sales, restaurant, services, and manufacturing). We believe our study to be the first one to conduct an empirical survey in this subject area. More studies in this area will likely use our research frameworks. The data show that regionally based industrial classification associations such as those in rural cities or less developed areas tend to suffer more problems than those in urban areas. Moreover, restaurants suffer more problems than the norm. Most of the problems raised in this study concern the act of 'associating itself'. Most associations have serious difficulties in associating. On the other hand, the area where they have the least policy demand is that of service types. This study contributes to the argument that associating, rather than financial assistance or management consulting, promotes the start-up and managerial performance of small businesses. This study also has some limitations. The main limitation is the number of questionnaires. We could not survey all the industrial classification types across the country because of budget and time limitations. If we had, we could have produced many more useful results and enhanced the precision of our analysis. The history of systemization is very short and the number of industrial classification associations is relatively low in Korea. We should keep in mind, though, that this is very crucial to systemization entrepreneurs starting their businesses, as it can heavily affect their chances of success. Being strongly associated with each other might be critical to the business success of industrial classification members. Thus, the government needs to put more effort and resources into supporting the drive of industrial classification members to become more strongly associated.

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