• Title/Summary/Keyword: Distribution Estimation

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2020 Korean Dietary Reference Intakes for Protein: Estimation of protein requirements and the status of dietary protein intake in the Korean population (2020 단백질 섭취기준: 결핍과 만성질환 예방을 위한 한국인의 단백질 필요량 추정과 섭취현황)

  • Kim, Eunjung;Chung, Sangwon;Hwang, Jin-Taek;Park, Yoon Jung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2022
  • This article evaluated levels of Estimated Average Requirements (EARs), Reference Nutrient Intakes (RNIs), and Acceptable Macronutrient Distribution Ranges (AMDRs) of protein using the recently revised Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs) for Koreans (2020). Dietary protein requirements are based on amounts sufficient to satisfy physiological demands to accomplish nitrogen equilibrium. The same principle was applied to estimate EARs and RNIs, for adults in DRIs conducted in 2015 and 2020 in Koreans. EAR was estimated to be 0.73 g/kg body weight/day, according to data (0.66 g/kg body weight/day) obtained using the nitrogen balance method and adjusted by efficiency of protein use (90%). RNI was calculated as EAR increased by an amount equal to twice the standard deviation of an age group so as to cover 97.5% of the group and was found to be 0.91 g/kg body weight/day. For weaned infants, children, and adolescents, growth requirement was added to estimate EAR. In particular, growth requirement was adjusted by efficiency of protein use in the revised EAR, which led to higher EARs for weaned infants, children, and adolescents of both genders as compared with 2015 DRIs. The AMDR for protein was set at 7%-20% of energy intake, which was the same as 2015 DRIs. Current, average protein intake by the Korean population is almost twice times the EAR, which suggests it might be better to increase the minimal margin for AMDR. However, it was not adjusted in this revision due to lack of evidence.

Impacts of Social Distancing for COVID-19 on Urban Space Use in Seoul (COVID-19 사회적 거리두기가 도시공간이용에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Hong Il;Lee, Sangkyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.457-467
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    • 2021
  • This paper aims to analyze changes in urban space use due to social distancing measures for COVID-19 using de facto population data in Seoul during daytime, which is estimated by Seoul Metropolitan Government and telecommunication company of KT using public big data and LTE signal data. The result of kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that the distribution patterns of de facto population in 2019 and 2020 were generally similar. This is a result of showing that the government's social distancing measures enabled a certain level of normal activities while suppressing the spread of COVID-19. However, analyzing de facto population subtracting 2019 from 2020 showed different results at the micro level. De facto population decreased in commercial areas but increased in residential areas. This means that COVID-19 social distancing measures had spatially uneven effect. The results of analyzing the effect of regional, land use, economic, educational, and accessibility characteristics on the changes of de facto population using spatial regression analysis are as follows. The higher the density of commercial facilities, the more businesses subject to regulations and schools and universities that require non-face-to-face classes, the more de facto population decreased. Conversely, it was found that de facto population increased in areas with many houses and parks due to telecommuting.

A Short Review for the Estimation Method of Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase According to the Setting of Initial Age for the Study Cohort in the Lotka Life Table (로트카 생명표에서 연구 집단의 초기연령 설정에 따른 내적자연증가율 추정방법에 대한 고찰)

  • Dong-soon, Kim
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.549-554
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    • 2022
  • Life table-related studies in insect ecology have been an interesting topic for insect researchers. Two calculation methods are commonly applied to estimate the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) in the life table statistics. The first method is to estimate an approximate rm by dividing the natural logarithm of the net reproductive rate (R0) by mean generation time (T) (namely mean generation time-based method). Another approach is to apply the Lotka-Euler equation derived from the population growth equation of Lotka-Volterra to estimate accurate rm using the maximum likelihood method (Lotka-Euler equation-based method). In the latter case, there is a difference in the estimated rm value when the initial age class of the target cohort was set to "0" or "1", which confused the application. In this short review, a brief history of the calculation process of the life table was reviewed. It was again confirmed in the Lotka-Euler equation-based method that the form of $\sum\limits_{x=1}^{w}e^{-rx}l_xm_x=1$ should be applied to estimate rm when the first age class was set to zero, while the form of $\sum\limits_{x=0}^{w}e^{-r(x+1)}l_xm_x=1$ when set to one.

Estimation of citizen's willingness to pay for water quality improvement on urban rivers (도시하천 수질개선을 위한 시민의 지불의사액 추정 연구)

  • Kang, Jiyoon;Yang, Jinwoo;Hwang, Youngsoon;Kim, Keewook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2023
  • Urban rivers and their surrounding environments have been altered due to factors such as rapid economic growth and urban development. This alteration have caused the rivers to lose their original value and become exposed to various pollution, resulting decrease in citizens' quality of life. This study aims to estimate citizens' Willingness To Pay (WTP) for water quality improvement in Suyeong River in Busan. To estimate the non-market value of the Suyeong River, the WTP of Busan citizens for water quality improvement was estimated, applying Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). The WTP for improving the water quality from Grade 4(polluted water) to Grade 2(game fish like bass can live in it) was estimated using the water quality ladder concept of the US Environmental Protection Agency, assuming annual donations for five years. For the CVM, the logistic distribution and Spike Model were adopted. As a result, citizens residing in the surrounding area of Suyeong River expressed a higher WTP. Considering more than half of the Busan citizens are aware of the "conservation of nature and ecosystems" as a major function of the Suyeong River, this higher WTP could serve as a basis for improving the value of urban rivers.

A SVR Based-Pseudo Modified Einstein Procedure Incorporating H-ADCP Model for Real-Time Total Sediment Discharge Monitoring (실시간 총유사량 모니터링을 위한 H-ADCP 연계 수정 아인슈타인 방법의 의사 SVR 모형)

  • Noh, Hyoseob;Son, Geunsoo;Kim, Dongsu;Park, Yong Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.321-335
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    • 2023
  • Monitoring sediment loads in natural rivers is the key process in river engineering, but it is costly and dangerous. In practice, suspended loads are directly measured, and total loads, which is a summation of suspended loads and bed loads, are estimated. This study proposes a real-time sediment discharge monitoring system using the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed system is comprised of the SVR model for suspended sediment concentration (SVR-SSC) and for total loads (SVR-QTL), respectively. SVR-SSC estimates SSC and SVR-QTL mimics the modified Einstein procedure. The grid search with K-fold cross validation (Grid-CV) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) were employed to determine SVR's hyperparameters and input variables. The two SVR models showed reasonable cross-validation scores (R2) with 0.885 (SVR-SSC) and 0.860 (SVR-QTL). During the time-series sediment load monitoring period, we successfully detected various sediment transport phenomena in natural streams, such as hysteresis loops and sensitive sediment fluctuations. The newly proposed sediment monitoring system depends only on the gauged features by H-ADCP without additional assumptions in hydraulic variables (e.g., friction slope and suspended sediment size distribution). This method can be applied to any ADCP-installed discharge monitoring station economically and is expected to enhance temporal resolution in sediment monitoring.

Occupancy Probability Estimation of Endangered Species Clithon retropictus (멸종위기종인 기수갈고둥의 잠재적 서식지 예측을 위한 점유 확률 추정)

  • Park, Woong-Bae;Lim, Sung-Ho;Won, Doo-Hee;Lee, Kyung-Lak;Hong, Cheol;Do, Yuno
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.76-83
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    • 2022
  • We attempted to estimate potential habitats of Clithon retropictus and to determine the community structure of benthic macroinvertebrates by presence of C. retropictus. 2016 to 2018 database of "Survey and Assessment of Estuary Ecosystem Health" by the Ministry of Environment were used to identify the distribution site of C. retropictus. The occupancy model was applied to estimate the potential habitat of C. retropictus. Four diversity indices were used to confirm the community structure of benthic macroinvertebrates. C. retropictus was found in the southern coast area and part of the east coast, and this pattern was consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the occupancy model predicted that a potential habitat of C. retropictus could appear in the west coast area. The community structure of benthic macroinvertebrates was relatively high at the site with C. retropictus than the site without C. retropictus. Therefore, the occupancy model can be considered when conserving C. retropictus inhabiting a limited area. Additionally, C. retropictus can be used to the indicator species that can represent the brackish water environment.

Uncertainty of future runoff projection according to SSP scenarios and hydrologic model parameters (미래 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량예측 불확실성)

  • Kim, Jin Hyuck;Song, Young Hoon;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2023
  • Future runoff analysis is influenced by climate change scenarios and hydrologic model parameters, with uncertainties. In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff analysis according to the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario and hydrologic model parameters was analyzed. Among the SSP scenarios, the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used, and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used as the hydrologic model. For the parameters of the SWAT model, a total of 11 parameter were optimized to the observed runoff data using SWAT-CUP. Then, uncertainty analysis of future estimated runoff compared to the observed runoff was performed using jensen-shannon divergence (JS-D), which can calculate the difference in distribution. As a result, uncertainty of future runoff was analyzed to be larger in SSP5-8.5 than in SSP2-4.5, and larger in the far future (2061-2100) than in the near future (2021-2060). In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff using future climate data according to the parameters of the hydrologic model is as follows. Uncertainty was greatly analyzed when parameters used observed runoff data in years with low flow rates compared to average years. In addition, the uncertainty of future runoff estimation was analyzed to be greater for the parameters of the period in which the change in runoff compared to the average year was greater.

Estimation of Probability Precipitation by Regional Frequency Analysis using Cluster analysis and Variable Kernel Density Function (군집분석과 변동핵밀도함수를 이용한 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정)

  • Oh, Tae Suk;Moon, Young-Il;Oh, Keun-Taek
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2008
  • The techniques to calculate the probability precipitation for the design of hydrological projects can be determined by the point frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis. Probability precipitation usually calculated by point frequency analysis using rainfall data that is observed in rainfall observatory which is situated in the basin. Therefore, Probability precipitation through point frequency analysis need observed rainfall data for enough periods. But, lacking precipitation data can be calculated to wrong parameters. Consequently, the regional frequency analysis can supplement the lacking precipitation data. Therefore, the regional frequency analysis has weaknesses compared to point frequency analysis because of suppositions about probability distributions. In this paper, rainfall observatory in Korea did grouping by cluster analysis using position of timely precipitation observatory and characteristic time rainfall. Discordancy and heterogeneity measures verified the grouping precipitation observatory by the cluster analysis. So, there divided rainfall observatory in Korea to 6 areas, and the regional frequency analysis applies index-flood techniques and L-moment techniques. Also, the probability precipitation was calculated by the regional frequency analysis using variable kernel density function. At the results, the regional frequency analysis of the variable kernel function can utilize for decision difficulty of suitable probability distribution in other methods.

Application of Self-Organizing Map Theory for the Development of Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Model (강우-유출 예측모형 개발을 위한 자기조직화 이론의 적용)

  • Park, Sung Chun;Jin, Young Hoon;Kim, Yong Gu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4B
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2006
  • The present study compositely applied the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a kind of artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the back propagation algorithm (BPA) for the rainfall-runoff prediction model taking account of the irregular variation of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall. To solve the problems from the previous studies on ANNs, such as the overestimation of low flow during the dry season, the underestimation of runoff during the flood season and the persistence phenomenon, in which the predicted values continuously represent the preceding runoffs, we introduced SOM theory for the preprocessing in the prediction model. The theory is known that it has the pattern classification ability. The method proposed in the present research initially includes the classification of the rainfall-runoff relationship using SOM and the construction of the respective models according to the classification by SOM. The individually constructed models used the data corresponding to the respectively classified patterns for the runoff prediction. Consequently, the method proposed in the present study resulted in the better prediction ability of runoff than that of the past research using the usual application of ANNs and, in addition, there were no such problems of the under/over-estimation of runoff and the persistence.

Seismic Fragility Analysis for Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of PSC Box Girder Bridges (확률론적 내진성능평가를 위한 PSC Box 거더교의 지진취약도 해석)

  • Song, Jong-Keol;Jin, He-Shou;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2A
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2009
  • Seismic fragility curves of a structure represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration ($S_a$) and spectral displacement ($S_d$). So those are very essential to evaluate the structural seismic performance and seismic risk. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges. In order to construct numerical fragility curve of bridge structure using nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions corresponding to design spectrum are artificially generated. Assuming a lognormal distribution, the fragility curve is estimated by using the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. PGA is simple and generally used parameter in fragility curve as ground motion intensity. However, the PGA has not good relationship with the inelastic structural behavior. So, $S_a$ and $S_d$ with more direct relationship for structural damage are used in fragility analysis as more useful intensity measures instead of PGA. The numerical fragility curves based on nonlinear time history analysis are compared with those obtained from simple method suggested in HAZUS program.