• Title/Summary/Keyword: Disease model

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AN SEIR ENDEMIC MODEL FOR MONKEYPOX SPREAD IN UNITED STATES

  • S. SHALINI PRIYA;K. GANESAN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.1017-1035
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we construct a monkeypox model which is similar to smallpox infection. It is caused by a monkeypox virus which is related to Poxviridae family. It will occur mostly in West African communities and in remote Central. We develop a system of differential equations for an SEIR (Suspected, Exposed, Infected and Recovered) model and analyze the outbreak of monkeypox disease and its effect on United States(US) population. We establish theorems on asymptotical stability conditions for endemic equilibrium and disease-free equilibrium. The basic reproduction number R0 has been determined using next generation matrix. We expect that this study will be effective at controlling monkeypox spread in United States. Our goal is to see whether monkeypox can be controlled and destroyed by smallpox vaccination. We find that monkeypox is controllable and can be fully destroyed in disease free state by vaccination. However, in the endemic state, monkeypox cannot be destroyed by vaccination alone.

Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer

  • Kim, Kyu-Rang;Seem, Robert C.;Park, Eun-Woo;Zack, John W.;Magarey, Roger D.
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2005
  • Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.

Effects of Two Chemotherapy Regimens, Anthracycline-based and CMF, on Breast Cancer Disease Free Survival in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Asia: A Meta-Analysis Approach for Survival Curves

  • Zare, Najaf;Ghanbari, Saeed;Salehi, Alireza
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.2013-2017
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    • 2013
  • Background: To compare the effects of two adjuvant chemotherapy regimens, anthracycline-based and cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorourical (CMF) on disease free survival for breast cancer patients in the Eastern Mediterranean region and Asia. Methods: In a systematic review with a multivariate mixed model meta-analysis, the reported survival proportion at multiple time points in different studies were combined. Our data sources were studies linking the two chemotherapy regimens on an adjuvant basis with disease free survival published in English and Persian in the Eastern Mediterranean region and Asia. All survival curves were generated with Graphdigitizer software. Results: 14 retrospective cohort studies were located from electronic databases. We analyzed data for 1,086 patients who received anthracycline-based treatment and 1,109 given CMF treatment. For determination of survival proportions and time we usesb the transformation Ln (-Ln(S)) and Ln (time) to make precise estimations and then fit the model. All analyses were carried out with STATA software. Conclusions: Our findings showed a significant efficacy of anthracycline-based adjuvant therapy regarding disease free survival of breast cancer. As a limitation in this meta-analysis we used studies with different types of anthracycline-based regimens.

An Explanatory Model on Functional Capacity in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성 폐쇄성 폐질환 환자의 기능적 용량 설명모형)

  • Bang, So-Youn
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.652-663
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to develop and test an explanatory model on functional capacity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using path analysis. Methods: Data were collected from 149 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients using 6-minute walk test, measurement of oxygen saturation, pulmonary function test, and self-reported questionnaires from June to October, 2005. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS/WIN 12.0 program and AMOS/WIN 4.0 program. Results: The overall fitness indices of modified model were good($x^2$ = 14.324, p = .281 GFI = .981, RMSEA = .006, AGFI = .944, NFI = .927, NNFI = .999, CFI = .999, PNFI = .613, $x^2$/df = 1.194). Functional capacity was influenced directly by age(${\beta}$ = -.304, p = .000), dyspnea(${\beta}$ = -.278, p = .000), self-efficacy(${\beta}$ = .240, p = .000), social support(${\beta}$ = .175, p = .004), pulmonary function(${\beta}$ = .169, p = .008), and oxygen saturation(${\beta}$ = .099, p = .048). These variables explained 39.3% in functional capacity. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that comprehensive nursing interventions should focus on decreasing dyspnea and increasing self-efficacy, social support, and oxygen saturation. In this perspective, pulmonary rehabilitation would be an effective strategy for improving functional capacity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

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Liver Protective Effects of Jageum-Jung in Alcohol-induced liver injury mice model (알코올 유발 간 손상 마우스 모델에서 자금정의 간 보호 효과)

  • Kim, Kwang-Youn;Park, Kwang-Il;Cho, Won-Kyung;Ma, Jin-Yeul
    • Herbal Formula Science
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : This study investigated the hepatoprotective effects effects of Jageum-jung extract on alcohol-induced liver disease mice model. Methods : Alcoholic liver disease was induced by Ethanol in C57/BL6 male mice, which were fed Lieber-DeCarli liquid diet containing ethanol. Jageum-jung (100,200 and 300 mg/kg bw/day) were orally administered daily in the alcoholic fatty liver disease mice for 16 days. Results : The results indicate that Jageum-jung promotes hepatoprotective effects by significantly reducing aspartate transaminase (AST) and alanine transaminase (ALT) levels as indicators of liver damage in the serum. Furthermore, Jageum-jung decreased accumulation of triglyceride and total cholesterol, increased levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione (GSH) in the serum of the alcoholic fatty liver disease mice model. Additionally, it improved the serum alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) activity. Conclusions : This study confirmed the anti-oxidative and hangover elimination effects of Jageum-jung extract, and suggests the possibility of using Jageum-jung to treat alcholic liver disease.

A Deep Convolutional Neural Network with Batch Normalization Approach for Plant Disease Detection

  • Albogamy, Fahad R.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2021
  • Plant disease is one of the issues that can create losses in the production and economy of the agricultural sector. Early detection of this disease for finding solutions and treatments is still a challenge in the sustainable agriculture field. Currently, image processing techniques and machine learning methods have been applied to detect plant diseases successfully. However, the effectiveness of these methods still needs to be improved, especially in multiclass plant diseases classification. In this paper, a convolutional neural network with a batch normalization-based deep learning approach for classifying plant diseases is used to develop an automatic diagnostic assistance system for leaf diseases. The significance of using deep learning technology is to make the system be end-to-end, automatic, accurate, less expensive, and more convenient to detect plant diseases from their leaves. For evaluating the proposed model, an experiment is conducted on a public dataset contains 20654 images with 15 plant diseases. The experimental validation results on 20% of the dataset showed that the model is able to classify the 15 plant diseases labels with 96.4% testing accuracy and 0.168 testing loss. These results confirmed the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model for the plant disease detection task.

Developing the Index of Foodborne Disease Occurrence (식중독 발생지수 개발)

  • Choi, Kook-Yeol;Kim, Byung-Soo;Bae, Wha-Soo;Jung, Woo-Seok;Cho, Young-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.649-658
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    • 2008
  • As the Eating Out Businesses are making rapid progress and most of the schools and the firms serve the meals, the foodborne disease has occurred increasingly and lots of researches and the policies are studied to prevent it. In Korea, the foodborne disease index for prevention is developed by using bacterial growth rate on the temperature to give the information about the danger level of the foodborne disease, but the gap between real status of the occurrences and the predicted danger level has been pointed out. This study aims at developing the index of the foodborne occurrence based on the log linear model using the data of the foodborne disease occurrence and the meteorological data for the last three years($2004{\sim}2006$). Comparison between the new index and the existing index showed that the new index is better in explaining the foodborne disease occurrence.

A Prediction Model for Depression in Patients with Parkinson's Disease (파킨슨병 환자의 우울 예측 모형)

  • Bae, Eun Sook;Chun, Sang Myung;Kim, Jae Woo;Kang, Chang Wan
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: This study investigated how income, duration of illness, social stigma, quality of sleeping, ADL and social participation related to Parkinson's disease(PD) predict depression in a conceptual model based on the International Classification of Functioning(ICF) model. Methods: The sample included 206 adults with idiopathic Parkinson's disease(IPD) attending D university hospital in B Metro-politan City. A structured questionnaire was used and conducted face-to-face interviews. The collected data were analyzed for fitness, using the AMOS 18.0 program. Results: A path analysis showed that the overall model provided empirical evidence for linkages in the ICF model. Depression was manifested by significant direct effects of social stigma(${\beta}=.20$, p<.001), quality of sleeping(${\beta}=-.40$, p<.001), ADL(${\beta}=-.20$, p<.01), and social participation(${\beta}=-.12$, p<.05), indirect effects including income(p<.05), duration of illness(p<.05). These variables explained 45.9% of variance in the prediction model. Conclusions: This model may help nurses to collect and assess information to develop intervention program for depression.

A Flexible Statistical Growth Model for Describing Plant Disease Progress (식물병(植物病) 진전(進展)의 한 유연적(柔軟的)인 통계적(統計的) 생장(生長) 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.26 no.1 s.70
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 1987
  • A piecewise linear regression model able to describe disease progress curves with simplicity and flexibility was developed in this study. The model divides whole epidemic into several pieces of simple linear regression based on changes in pattern of disease progress in the epidemic and then incorporates the pieces of linear regression into a single mathematical function using indicator variables. When twelve epidemic data obtained from the field experiments were fitted to the piecewise linear regression model, logistic model and Gompertz model to compare statistical fit, goodness of fit was greatly improved with piecewise linear regression compared to other two models. Simplicity, flexibility, accuracy and ease in parameter estimation of the piece-wise linear regression model were described with examples of real epidemic data. The result in this study suggests that piecewise linear regression model is an useful technique for modeling plant disease epidemic.

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Concept Analysis of Health Literacy for Patients with Cardiovascular Disease using Hybrid Model

  • Sim, Jeong Eun;Hwang, Seon Young
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.494-507
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide a clear definition of the health literacy for patients with cardiovascular disease by analyzing the dimensions and properties using Hybrid concept analysis. Methods: The concept of health literacy of patients with cardiovascular disease was analyzed according to the cyclic process of theoretical phase-field work phase-final analysis phase presented in the Hybrid model. We reviewed 26 literatures and conducted in-depth interviews with 13 patients with cardiovascular disease. Results: The concept of health literacy in cardiovascular patients is derived from two dimensions and five attributes. Literacy skills, health information search ability and health information utilization skills were derived as attributes in the individual functional dimension, while active communication with the medical team and utilization of health information support resources were derived at the interrelational dimension. It is defined as the individualized and integrated ability of an individual to explore and utilize the various health information needed to make appropriate health decisions during the chronic course after diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, to communicate proactively with medical staffs and to utilize support resources. Conclusion: This study will contribute to the development and related research of health literacy measurement tools that can be used in cardiovascular nursing practice based on the attributes and indicators of health literacy for patients with cardiovascular disease.