• 제목/요약/키워드: Disease model

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DYNAMICS OF A DELAY-DIFFUSION PREY-PREDATOR MODEL WITH DISEASE IN THE PREY

  • MUKHOPADHYAY B.;BHATTACHARYYA R.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.17 no.1_2_3
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    • pp.361-377
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    • 2005
  • A mathematical model dealing with a prey-predator system with disease in the prey is considered. The functional response of the predator is governed by a Hoilling type-2 function. Mathematical analysis of the model regarding stability and persistence has been performed. The effect of delay and diffusion on the above system is studied. The role of diffusivity on stability and persistence criteria of the system has also been discussed.

Mixed Model with Time Effect for Analyzing Geographic Variability in Mortality Rates

  • Yong Chul Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 1997
  • Tsutakawa(1988) proposed a mixed model for using empirical Bayes method to study the geographic variability in mortality rates of a disease. In particular cases of the analysis in mortality rate, we need to consider the effect of time. If observed data are collected annually for the time period, then time effect will be emphasized. Here, an extended model for estimating the geographic effect and the mortality rates of the disease with time effect is proposed.

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AN SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL ON A DISPERSIVE POPULATION

  • Ghosh, Asit K.;Chattopadhyay, J.;Tapaswi, P.K.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.925-940
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    • 2000
  • The spatial spread of a disease in an SIRS epidemic model with immunity imparted by subclinical infection on a population has been considered. The incidence rate of infection and the rate of immunization are both of nonlinear type. The dynamics of the infectious disease and its endemicity in local and global sense have been investigated.

The Dynamics of Agricultural Commodities and Their Responses to Disruptions of Considerable Magnitude

  • Conrad Stephen H.
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.17-32
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    • 2005
  • An agricultural commodity production cycle model consisting of corn, beef, and dairy sectors was constructed for the purpose of exploring the propagating effects of large-scale disruptive events. In an initial proof-of-concept exercise, we considered an agricultural disruption scenario in which foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is introduced into the U.S., causing a large-scale outbreak of the disease in both beef and dairy cattle. The magnitude of disruption to the beef and dairy sectors are presented under the existing W response policy and then improvements under two alternative policies are shown.

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A Study on Survey Questionnaire to Measure the Knowledge Level of the Foodborne Disease

  • Bae, Wha-Soo;Kim, Jung-In;Choi, Kook-Lyeol;Kim, Byung-Soo;Cho, Young-Joon;Oh, Dong-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2008
  • In this article, the aim is at evaluating the knowledge level of the foodbome disease by developing a reasonable survey questionnaire model. Each questions of the questionnaire is made up to check the knowledge covering the several fields of materials related to the foodbome disease. The pilot survey is implemented to evaluate the validity of questionnaire. Each question in questionnaire is scored to get the quantitative measure of the foodbome disease knowledge by converting the total score into 100 points.

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Metabolic Diseases Classification Models according to Food Consumption using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 활용한 식품소비에 따른 대사성 질환 분류 모델)

  • Hong, Jun Ho;Lee, Kyung Hee;Lee, Hye Rim;Cheong, Hwan Suk;Cho, Wan-Sup
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.354-360
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    • 2022
  • Metabolic disease is a disease with a prevalence of 26% in Korean, and has three of the five states of abdominal obesity, hypertension, hunger glycemic disorder, high neutral fat, and low HDL cholesterol at the same time. This paper links the consumer panel data of the Rural Development Agency(RDA) and the medical care data of the National Health Insurance Service(NHIS) to generate a classification model that can be divided into a metabolic disease group and a control group through food consumption characteristics, and attempts to compare the differences. Many existing domestic and foreign studies related to metabolic diseases and food consumption characteristics are disease correlation studies of specific food groups and specific ingredients, and this paper is logistic considering all food groups included in the general diet. We created a classification model using regression, a decision tree-based classification model, and a classification model using XGBoost. Of the three models, the high-precision model is the XGBoost classification model, but the accuracy was not high at less than 0.7. As a future study, it is necessary to extend the observation period for food consumption in the patient group to more than 5 years and to study the metabolic disease classification model after converting the food consumed into nutritional characteristics.

Prediction of the Number of Food Poisoning Occurrences by Microbes (원인균별 식중독 발생 건수 예측)

  • Yeo, In-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.923-932
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    • 2013
  • This paper proposes a method to predict the number of foodborne disease outbreaks by microbes. The weekly data of food poisoning occurrences by microbes in Korea contain many zero-valued observations and have dependency between outbreaks. In order to model both phenomena, the number of food poisonings is predicted by an autoregressive model and the probabilities of food poisoning occurrences by microbes (given the total of food poisonings) are estimated by the baseline category logit model. The predicted number of foodborne disease outbreaks by a microbe is obtained by multiplying the predicted number of foodborne disease outbreaks and the estimated probability of the food poisoning by the corresponding microbe. The mean squared error and the mean absolute value error are evaluated to compare the performances of the proposed method and the zero-inflated model.

Validation of an Anthracnose Forecaster to Schedule Fungicide Spraying for Pepper

  • Ahn, Mun-Il;Kang, Wee-Soo;Park, Eun-Woo;Yun, Sung-Chul
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.46-51
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    • 2008
  • With the goal of achieving better integrated pest management for hot pepper, a disease-forecasting system was compared to a conventional disease-control method. Experimental field plots were established at Asan, Chungnam, in 2005 to 2006, and hourly temperature and leaf wetness were measured and used as model inputs. One treatment group received applications of a protective fungicide, dithianon, every 7 days, whereas another received a curative fungicide, dimethomorph, when the model-determined infection risk (IR) exceeded a value of 3. In the unsprayed plot, fruits showed 18.9% (2005) and 14.0% (2006) anthracnose infection. Fruits sprayed with dithianon at 7-day intervals had 4.7% (2005) and 15.4% (2006) infection. The receiving model-advised sprays of dimethomorph had 9.4% (2005) and 10.9% (2006) anthracnose infection. Differences in the anthracnose levels between the conventional and model-advised treatments were not statistically significant. The efficacy of 10 (2005) and 8 (2006) applications of calendar-based sprays was same as that of three (2005 and 2006) sprays based on the disease-forecast system. In addition, we found much higher the IRs with the leaf wetness sensor from the field plots comparing without leaf wetness sensor from the weather station at Asan within 10km away. Since the wetness-periods were critical to forecast anthracnose in the model, the measurement of wetness-period in commercial fields must be refined to improve the anthracnose-forecast model.

BGRcast: A Disease Forecast Model to Support Decision-making for Chemical Sprays to Control Bacterial Grain Rot of Rice

  • Lee, Yong Hwan;Ko, Sug-Ju;Cha, Kwang-Hong;Park, Eun Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.350-362
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    • 2015
  • A disease forecast model for bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice, which is caused by Burkholderia glumae, was developed in this study. The model, which was named 'BGRcast', determined daily conduciveness of weather conditions to epidemic development of BGR and forecasted risk of BGR development. All data that were used to develop and validate the BGRcast model were collected from field observations on disease incidence at Naju, Korea during 1998-2004 and 2010. In this study, we have proposed the environmental conduciveness as a measure of conduciveness of weather conditions for population growth of B. glumae and panicle infection in the field. The BGRcast calculated daily environmental conduciveness, $C_i$, based on daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity. With regard to the developmental stages of rice plants, the epidemic development of BGR was divided into three phases, i.e., lag, inoculum build-up and infection phases. Daily average of $C_i$ was calculated for the inoculum build-up phase ($C_{inf}$) and the infection phase ($C_{inc}$). The $C_{inc}$ and $C_{inf}$ were considered environmental conduciveness for the periods of inoculum build-up in association with rice plants and panicle infection during the heading stage, respectively. The BGRcast model was able to forecast actual occurrence of BGR at the probability of 71.4% and its false alarm ratio was 47.6%. With the thresholds of $C_{inc}=0.3$ and $C_{inf}=0.5$, the model was able to provide advisories that could be used to make decisions on whether to spray bactericide at the preand post-heading stage.

A Hybrid Mod K-Means Clustering with Mod SVM Algorithm to Enhance the Cancer Prediction

  • Kumar, Rethina;Ganapathy, Gopinath;Kang, Jeong-Jin
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.231-243
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    • 2021
  • In Recent years the way we analyze the breast cancer has changed dramatically. Breast cancer is the most common and complex disease diagnosed among women. There are several subtypes of breast cancer and many options are there for the treatment. The most important is to educate the patients. As the research continues to expand, the understanding of the disease and its current treatments types, the researchers are constantly being updated with new researching techniques. Breast cancer survival rates have been increased with the use of new advanced treatments, largely due to the factors such as earlier detection, a new personalized approach to treatment and a better understanding of the disease. Many machine learning classification models have been adopted and modified to diagnose the breast cancer disease. In order to enhance the performance of classification model, our research proposes a model using A Hybrid Modified K-Means Clustering with Modified SVM (Support Vector Machine) Machine learning algorithm to create a new method which can highly improve the performance and prediction. The proposed Machine Learning model is to improve the performance of machine learning classifier. The Proposed Model rectifies the irregularity in the dataset and they can create a new high quality dataset with high accuracy performance and prediction. The recognized datasets Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer (WDBC) Dataset have been used to perform our research. Using the Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer (WDBC) Dataset, We have created our Model that can help to diagnose the patients and predict the probability of the breast cancer. A few machine learning classifiers will be explored in this research and compared with our Proposed Model "A Hybrid Modified K-Means with Modified SVM Machine Learning Algorithm to Enhance the Cancer Prediction" to implement and evaluated. Our research results show that our Proposed Model has a significant performance compared to other previous research and with high accuracy level of 99% which will enhance the Cancer Prediction.