• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2012

Based on Clark and Munro's theory of dynamic optimization between fishery resources and production, this study is aimed to take an empirical analysis of optimal production level to the Danish Seine fishery under the sandfish stock rebuilding plan. For empirical analysis, it examined the optimal fish stock size, production and fishing effort levels and it also made an additional evaluation of optimal production changes on main variables by sensitivity analyses. When a 4% of the discount rate is assumed, the optimal sandfish production of Danish Seine fishery would be 3,049 t, and the sandfish optimal stock size is evaluated to be 19,016 t. In addition, the optimal fishing effort is estimated to be 4,368 days. Accordingly, to achieve the optimal production level, current fishing efforts should be reduced while the fish stock size should be increased up to the optimal level.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

We developed the logical methods to analyze economic impacts of standardization and cleared up effects of performing KS in micro and macro aspects. This study is performed through analysing foreign studies and results from surveys. The advanced methods performing standardization as a form of 'Korean industrial standards' are suggested here, which are based on results of this study. The major consequences of this study are followings. The micro economic impact is that each company gets 604.5 millions won a year through performing KS A and F(discount rate 4.5%) and 1.46 trillions won is the macro economic impact through performing total KS A and F, which comes to 0.245% of GDP.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2004년도 추계 학술발표회 제16권2호
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• pp.773-776
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• 2004

The so-called Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis on reinforced concrete bridge can provide useful information for initial design and maintenance plan of the RC bridge. This paper proposes an LCC prediction equation and a sensitivity analysis method for RC bridges. An LCC equation for the RC bridge which includes initial investment cost, maintenance cost, and demolition cost was derived and verified from the data for design and construction of an RC slab bridge. In order to solve uncertainty problem on actual discount rate and material characteristics in the analysis of LCC of concrete bridges, a sensitivity analysis method on the LCC using the Monte Carlo simulation technique was suggested.

• 한국항만학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.165-173
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• 2000

Major factors that are considered to determine lease charges of container terminals are, among others, construction cost of berth, discount rate, financing cost, and size of annual equivalent recovery. This paper aims to calculate construction costs at PECT and GCT and their annual equivalent recovery on the basis of historical data, and to identify whether or not the relationship of the above result and current lease charges at the two terminals are justifiable.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 1999년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.11-18
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• 1999

Major factors that are considered to determine lease charges of container terminals are, among others, construction cost of berth, discount rate, financing cost, and size of annual equivalent recovery. This paper aims to calculate construction costs at PECT and GCT and their annual equivalent recovery on the basis of historical data, and to identify whether or not relationship of the above result and current lease charges at the two terminals are justifiable.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.363-370
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• 1996

The effect of breeding length of sire on genetic progress was examined in the Holstein dairy cattle population in Japan. Genetic progress was extimated by gene flow method. Breeding length of sires directly influences the replacement rates of sires and the selection intensity of sires because there are a fixed number of progeny tested young bulls per year. As breeding length of sires increased, rate of gene flow decreased and average proportions of genes deriving from selected animals had lower asymptotic values. When breeding length was short, average proportions of genes required a longer period to converge to asymptotic values. Changes of Rcow-sire's(sire to breed recorded cows) and Ncow-sire's(sire to breed non recorded cows) breeding length influenced not only transmission of their genes but also that of genes derived from all other selected animals. Irrespective of whether the discount rate was assumed to be 0 or 6%, longer term (${\geq}$ 20 years) expected total genetic improvement was maximized by a sire breeding length of five years. For shorter term assessment(10 years), genetic improvement was maximized by a sire breeding length of three years. There was a linear increase in the contribution of the sire to bulls pathway to the total genetic improvement, with increase in the term of assessment.

• 한국도서관정보학회지
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.287-301
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• 2012

이 연구는 2011년 현재 운영중인 7개 외국학술지지원센터의 운영효과를 점검하기 위해 그 비용과 편익을 분석하였다. 사업개시부터 30년 경과시점을 기준으로 한 투자타당성 분석 결과, 비용편익 비율(BCR)은 0.99, 내부수익률(IRR)은 5.49%, 누적순현재가치(NPV)는 -507백만원으로 나타났다. 다만 민감도분석에서는 저널 이용건수와 사회적 할인율, 중복구독 중단 등의 항목의 변화에 따라 비용편익비율이 변화할 수 있음을 제시하였다.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.300-306
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• 2020

This study analyzes the distributor's inventory model in a two-stage supply chain consisting of the supplier, the distributor and the end customer. The supplier will allow a credit period before the distributor settles the account with him in order to stimulate the demand for the product he produces. It is also assumed that the distributor pays the shipping cost for the order and hence, the distributor's ordering cost consists of a fixed ordering cost and the shipping cost that depend on the order quantity. The availability of the delay in payments from the supplier enables discount of the distributor's selling price from a wider range of the price option in anticipation of increased customer's demand. As a result, the availability of a credit transaction leads to an increase in inventory levels. On the other hand, in the case of deteriorating products in which the utility of the product perish over time, the deterioration rate with time plays a role in reducing inventory levels. In this regard, we analyze the effect of the length of the credit period and the degree of product deterioration on the distributor's inventory level. For the analysis, we formulate the distributor's annual net profit and analyze the effect of the length of credit period and deterioration rate of the product on inventory policy numerically.