• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.95-109
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• 2013

The practices and processes of HRM (Human Resource Management) for university faculty in Korea depend heavily on assessment of research and teaching rather than the UIC (University-Industry Cooperation) performance. In this regard, HRM of Korean universities is said to be far distant from UIC. Although policy initiatives by the Korean government, notably the MoE (Ministry of Education) have implemented in most universities, the desirable level of UIC could not be achieved yet. Moreover, the very notion of 'university' in Korea is much more to do with 'pure' education and research institution than with 'applied' and 'vocational' purpose. Considering upon HRM practices and organizational culture, for enhancing UIC in Korea, the government's policy should be linked to alter deep-rooted university culture. So the aims of the research are to describe the current state of HRM in Korean and foreign universities; to find out the critical factors of UIC in Korean universities; to analyze the gaps between university research and industrial commercialization based on a conceptual framework, the 'valley of the death'; and to recommend HRM policies fostering UIC for the MoE. For achieving these objectives, we deploy multiple methodologies, namely, in-depth interview, literature survey, and statistical data analysis with regard to UIC. Analyzing the data we have collected, the present research sheds light on all aspects of HRM processes and UICs. And the main policy implication is restricted to the Korean universities, even if we have collected and analyzed foreign universities, notably universities in the USA. The research findings are mainly two folds. Firstly, the HRM practices among Korean universities are very similar due to the legally institutionalized framework and the government's regulations. Secondly, the difficulties of UIC can be explained by notion of the 'valley of death' ways in which both parties of university and industry are looking for different purposes and directions. In order to overcome the gap in the valley of death, the HRM policy is better to be considered as leverage. Finally, the policy recommendations are as follows. Firstly, various kinds of UIC programs are able to enhance the performances of not only UIC, but also education and research outcome. Secondly, fostering organizational climate and culture for UIC, employing various UIC programs, and hiring industry-experienced faculty are all very important for enhancing the high performance of university. We recommend the HRM policies fostering UIC by means of indirect way rather than funding directly for university. The HRM policy of indirect support is more likely to have long-term effectiveness while the government's direct intervention to UIC will have likely short-term effectiveness as the previous policy initiatives have shown. The MEST's policy means of indirect support might vary from financial incentives to the universities practicing HRM for UIC voluntarily, to information disclosure for UIC. The benefits of the present research can be found in suggesting HRM policy for UIC, highlighting the significance of industry-experienced faculty for UIC, and providing statistical analysis and evidences of UIC in Korean universities.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.7-29
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• 2012

Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.21-34
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• 2015

In this study, a reference model is constructed that provides architects or designers with sufficient information on the intelligent service facility that is essential for U-City space configuration, and for the support of enhanced design, as well as for planning activities. At the core of the reference model is comprehensive information about the intelligent service facility that plans the content of services, and the latest related information that is regularly updated. A plan is presented to take advantage of the database of list information systems in the Public Procurement Service that handles intelligent service facilities. We suggest a number of improvements by analyzing the current status of, and issues with, the goods information in the Public Procurement Service, and by conducting a simulation for the proper placement of CCTV. As the design of U-City plan has evolved from IT technology-based to smart space-based, reviews of limitations such as the lack of standards, information about the installation, and the placement of the intelligent service facility that provides U-service have been carried out. Due to the absence of relevant legislation and guidelines, however, planning activities, such as the appropriate placement of the intelligent service facility are difficult when considering efficient service provision. In addition, with the lack of information about IT technology and intelligent service facilities that can be provided to U-City planners and designers, there are a number of difficulties when establishing an optimal plan with respect to service level and budget. To solve these problems, this study presents a plan in conjunction with the goods information from the Public Procurement Service. The Public Procurement Service has already built an industry-related database of around 260,000 cases, which has been continually updated. It can be a very useful source of information about the intelligent service facility, the ever-changing U-City industry's core, and the relevant technologies. However, since providing this information is insufficient in the application process and, due to the constraints in the information disclosure process, there have been some issues in its application. Therefore, this study, by presenting an improvement plan for the linkage and application of the goods information in the Public Procurement Service, has significance for the provision of the basic framework for future U-City enhancement plans, and multi-departments' common utilization of the goods information in the Public Procurement Service.