• 농촌계획
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.125-135
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• 2013

Analysis and evaluation of uncertainty is adopting the advanced methodology among the methods for greenhouse gas emission assessment that was defined in GPS2000 (Good practice guideline 2000) and GPG-LULUCF (GPG Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). In 2006 IPCC guideline, two approaches are suggested to explain the uncertainty for each section with a national net emission and a prediction value on uncertainty as follows; 1) Spread sheet calculation based on the error propagation algorithm that was simplified with some assumptions, and 2) Monte carlo simulation that can be utilized in general purposes. There are few researches on the agricultural field including greenhouse gas emission that is generated from livestock and cultivation lands due to lack of information for statistic data, emission coefficient, and complicated emission formula. The main objective of this study is to suggest an evaluation method for the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission in agricultural field by means of intercomparison of the prediction value on uncertainties which were estimated by spread sheet calculation and monte carlo simulation. A statistic analysis for probability density function for uncertainty of emission rate was carried out by targeting livestock intestinal fermentation, excrements treatment, and direct/indirect emission from agricultural lands and rice cultivation. It was suggested to minimize uncertainty by means of extraction of emission coefficient according to each targeting section.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2002년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.651-656
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• 2002

In general, the most important problem in slope stability analysis is that there is no definite way to describe the natural three-dimensional Joint network. Therefore, the many approaches were tried to anlayze the slope stability. Numerical modeling approach is one of the branch to resolve the complexity of natural system. UDEC, FLAC, and SWEDGE are widely used commercial code for the purpose on stability analysis. For the purpose on the more appropriate application of these kind of code, however, three-dimensional distribution of joint network must be identified in more explicit way. Remaining problem is to definitely describe the three dimensional network of joint and bedding, but it is almost impossible in practical sense. Three dimensional joint generation method with random number generation and the results of generation to UDEC have been applied to settle the refered problems in field site. However, this approach also has a important problem, and it is that joint network is generated only once. This problem lead to the limitation on the application to field case, in practical sense. To get rid of this limitation, Monte Carlo Simulation is proposed in this study 1) statistical analysis of input values and definition of the applied system with statistical parameter, 2) instead of the consideration of generated network as a real system, generated system is just taken as one reliable system, 3) present the design parameters, through the statistical analysis of ouput values Results of this study are not only the probability of failure, but also area of failure block, shear strength, normal strength and failure pattern, and all of these results are described in statistical parameters. The results of this study, shear strength, failure area, pattern etc, can provide the direct basement on the design, cutoff angle, support pattern, support strength and etc.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.111-117
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• 1991

구조 공학에서의 고유치 문제는 좌굴해석, 진동해석 등 여러분야에 응용되고 있다. 일반적으로 구조물의 좌굴강도 해석에 사용되는 대부분의 변수들은 불확실성을 내포하고 있으므로 확률론적 해석을 수행해야 하지만, 구조물의 좌굴 신뢰성 해석을 위한 극한상태 방정식은 확률변수의 함수로 명확히 표현되지 않으므로 확률 유한 요소법의 사용이 필요하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 직접미분법에 의해 정식화된 확률 유한요소법을 사용하여 고유치 문제의 신뢰성 해석방법을 정식화 하고, 이를 바탕으로 좌굴 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였으며, 결과의 타당성을 검증하기 위하여 Crude Monte Carlo Method 및 이 방법의 단점을 대폭 보완한 Importance Sampling Method를 사용하였다. 본 논문에 의해 좌굴 신뢰성 해석 방법이 정립됨으로서 신뢰성에 기초한 최적 설계를 수행하는 경우, 시스템 파괴확률로서 소성 파괴확률과 더불어 좌굴 파괴확률의 고려가 가능해졌다.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제26권10호
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• pp.1406-1418
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• 2002

The direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) method is employed to calculate the etch rate on Al wafer. The etchant is assumed to be Cl$_2$. The etching process of an Al wafer in a helicon plasma etcher is examined by simulating molecular collisions of reactant and product. The flow field inside a plasma etch reactor is also simulated by the DSMC method fur a chlorine feed gas flow. The surface reaction on the Al wafer is simply modelled by one-step reaction: 3C1$_2$+2Allongrightarrow1 2AIC1$_3$. The gas flow inside the reactor is compared for six different nozzle locations. It is found that the flow field inside the reactor is affected by the nozzle locations. The Cl$_2$ number density on the wafer decreases as the nozzle location moves toward the side of the reactor. Also, the present numerical results show that the nozzle location 1, which is at the top of the reactor chamber, produces a higher etch rate.

• 에너지공학
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.46-53
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• 2005

본 논문은 확률적 기법을 적용하여 직접부하제어의 적정한 지원금을 산정하는 새로운 방법론을 제안한다. 직접부하제어의 경제성 분석은 발전기의 고장정지 특성, 직접부하제어 자원의 차단용량 및 차단시간 등을 모두 고려해야 하기 때문에 현실적으로 불가능한 것으로 인식되었다. 따라서 기존의 연구에서는 시나리오 접근법을 사용하여 직접부하제어의 경제성 평가를 수행하였다. 본 논문에서는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 직접부하제어의 제어전력량을 확률적으로 추정하고 이를 기반으로 직접부하제어의 지원금을 산정하는 새로운 접근법을 개발하였다. 또한 시뮬레이션의 효율을 향상시키기 위하여 분산감소 기법을 적용하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 방법론의 유용성을 보이기 위해 IEEE 24-모선 신뢰도 계통에 적용하여 사례연구를 수행하였다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2004

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권12호
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• pp.4142-4149
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• 2021

In the radiation protection application, the metal-polymer composites have been developed for their radiation shielding properties. In this research, the elastomer composites doped by 10 ㎛ and 100nm size of lead, bismuth and tungsten particles as filler with 30 and 60 wt percentages were prepared. To survey the shielding properties of the polymer composites using gamma-ray emitted from 152Eu and 137Cs sources, the gamma flux was measured by using NaI(Tl) detector, then the linear attenuation coefficient was calculated. Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCs) method was used. The results showed a direct relationship between the linear attenuation coefficients of the absorbent and filler ratio. Also, the decrease in the particle size of the shielding material in each weight percentage improved the radiation shielding features. When the dimension of the particles was in the order of nano-size, more attenuation was achieved. At low energies used for medical diagnostic X-ray applications due to the predominance of the photoelectric effect, bismuth and lead were suitable selection as filler.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.602-608
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• 2016

Because of the random characteristics of lightning, the Monte Carlo method is applied to estimate the flashover rate due to lightning, however, the simulations using previous methods are difficult to both beginner and expert in power corporations. Therefore, this paper proposes the new and easy method to simulate the flashover rate by connection of electromagnetic transients program (EMTP) and MATLAB. The magnitude of a lightning strike is based on a curve measured in the field, while the classification of direct and indirect lightning depends on the striking distance. In a Korean distribution system, the flashover rate induced by lightning is simulated using proposed method. Simulations of the footing resistance according to the existence of an overhead ground wire (OHGW) are performed and the simulation results are discussed. The simulation results are compared with findings obtained with the IEEE Flash 2.0 program.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• 제4권5호
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• pp.585-611
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• 2017

This article covenants with the post buckling witticism of carbon nanotube reinforced composite (CNTRC) beam supported with an elastic foundation in thermal atmospheres with arbitrary assumed random system properties. The arbitrary assumed random system properties are be modeled as uncorrelated Gaussian random input variables. Unvaryingly distributed (UD) and functionally graded (FG) distributions of the carbon nanotube are deliberated. The material belongings of CNTRC beam are presumed to be graded in the beam depth way and appraised through a micromechanical exemplary. The basic equations of a CNTRC beam are imitative constructed on a higher order shear deformation beam (HSDT) theory with von-Karman type nonlinearity. The beam is supported by two parameters Pasternak elastic foundation with Winkler cubic nonlinearity. The thermal dominance is involved in the material properties of CNTRC beam is foreseen to be temperature dependent (TD). The first and second order perturbation method (SOPT) and Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) by way of CO nonlinear finite element method (FEM) through direct iterative way are offered to observe the mean, coefficient of variation (COV) and probability distribution function (PDF) of critical post buckling load. Archetypal outcomes are presented for the volume fraction of CNTRC, slenderness ratios, boundary conditions, underpinning parameters, amplitude ratios, temperature reliant and sovereign random material properties with arbitrary system properties. The present defined tactic is corroborated with the results available in the literature and by employing MCS.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제64권4호
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• pp.413-426
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• 2017

Probabilistic methods are used in engineering where a computational model contains random variables. The proposed method under development: Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC) is highly efficient in terms of computation time and solution accuracy and is mostly faster than in case of other standard probabilistic methods. The novelty of the DOProC lies in an optimized numerical integration that easily handles both correlated and statistically independent random variables and does not require any simulation or approximation technique. DOProC is demonstrated by a collection of deliberately selected simple examples (i) to illustrate the efficiency of individual optimization levels and (ii) to verify it against other highly regarded probabilistic methods (e.g., Monte Carlo). Efficiency and other benefits of the proposed method are grounded on a comparative case study carried out using both the DOProC and MC techniques. The algorithm has been implemented in mentioned software applications, and has been used effectively several times in solving probabilistic tasks and in probabilistic reliability assessment of structures. The article summarizes the principles of this method and demonstrates its basic possibilities on simple examples. The paper presents unpublished details of probabilistic computations based on this method, including a reliability assessment, which provides the user with the probability of failure affected by statistically dependent input random variables. The study also mentions the potential of the optimization procedures under development, including an analysis of their effectiveness on the example of the reliability assessment of a slender column.