• Title/Summary/Keyword: Deviation index

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An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Price, Interest Rate, Price Index and Housing Price using VAR Model (VAR 모형을 이용한 주가, 금리, 물가, 주택가격의 관계에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Gyeong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

Comparison of Beam Quality Index of High Photon Beam (고에너지 광자선의 선질 지표에 관한 비교)

  • 신동오;지영훈;박성용;박현주;김회남;홍성언;권수일;서태석;최보영
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 1998
  • It is necessarily to evaluate the energy of X-ray emitted from linear accelerator in order to determine the accurate absorbed dose. The method of direct measurement for x-ray energy is very difficult and impractical. Therefore the method of using beam quality index is generally used. Several dosimetry protocols recommend the use of quality indices such as depth of dose maximum at radiation central axis, dose gradient, and dose level. The linear accelerator manufactures follow the recommendation as dosimetry protocols. The study was performed for us to select the most suitable parameter among the Quality indices as described above. For photon beams of 4, 6, 10, 15, and 21 MV nominal energies produced by four kinds of accelerators(Mitsubishi, Scanditronix, Siemens, Varian) in eleven institutions, We evaluated the x-ray energies obtained by the Quality indices as recommended by several dosimetry protocols and manufactures. Results showed that there were energy spreads according to the same accelerators and Quality indices even though nominal energies were same. It appeared that the percent depth dose at 10 cm (D$_{10}$(%)) gave the smallest deviation and spread of energies. As energies increased, the energy deviation increased for all the quality indices. It is desirable for the use of unified quality index to compare the evaluation of beam quality at different institutions.

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Relationship between Summer Heat Stress (Perceived Temperature) and Daily Excess Mortality in Seoul during 1991~2005 (인지온도를 이용한 여름철 폭염 스트레스와 일 사망률 증가와의 관련성 연구: 1991~2005, 서울)

  • Lee, Dae-Geun;Byon, Jae-Young;Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Kyu-Rang
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.253-264
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    • 2010
  • This study investigates the relationship between daily mortality and heat stress in Seoul, using perceived temperatures (PT) derived from a heat budget model. During the summer season, observed PT intensity showed the biggest magnitude of summer heat stress from the middle 10 days of July to the first 10 days of August. The elderly (65 and above) were found to be the most vulnerable to heat stress. The threshold PT, with a significant increase in excess mortality, was $38^{\circ}C$. No time lagged effect was observed with summer heat stress, while a high correlation was observed between anomalies in PT and relative deviation of mortality. A comparison of the heat index and the discomfort index with excess mortality revealed that the discomfort index underestimated excess mortality, whereas the heat index could not appropriately explain the increase in excess mortality correlated with the increase in excess heat. In contrast, PT was found to be the weather element that best represents excess mortality due to heat stress, and is thus expected to serve as a more reliable forecast index of human biometeorology.

Effects of Fatigue Induction on Ground Reaction Force Components, Postural Stability, and Vertical Jump Performance in Taekwondo Athletes

  • Hyun, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Young-Pyo;Ryew, Che-Cheong
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of fatigue induction on ground reaction force (GRF) components, postural stability, and vertical jump performance in Taekwondo athletes. Method: Ten Taekwondo athletes (5 men, 5 women; mean age, $22.30{\pm}2.62years$; mean height, $174.21{\pm}9.20cm$; mean body weight, $67.28{\pm}12.56kg$) participated in this study. Fatigue was induced by a short period of strenuous exercise performed on a motorized treadmill. The analyzed variables included vertical jump performance, static stability (mediolateral [ML], center of pressure [COP], anteroposterior [AP] COP, ${\Delta}COPx$, ${\Delta}COPy$, and COP area), postural stability index values (ML stability index [MLSI], AP stability index [APSI], vertical stability index [VSI], dynamic postural stability index [DPSI]), and GRF components (ML force, AP force, peak vertical force [PVF], and loading rate). To analyze the variables measured in this study, PASW version 22.0 was used to calculate the mean and standard deviation, while a paired t-test was used to evaluate the pre- versus post-fatigue results. Pearson's correlation coefficients among variables were also analyzed. The statistical significance level was set at ${\alpha}$ = .05. Results: Vertical jump performance decreased significantly after the induction of fatigue, while AP COP, ${\Delta}COPx$, COP area, APSI, VSI, and DPSI increased significantly. PVF and loading rate increased significantly after the induction of fatigue, while the postural stability variables (AP COP, ${\Delta}COPy$, COP area, APSI, VSI, DPSI) were similarly correlated with GRF components (PVF, loading rate) after fatigue was achieved (r = .600, $R^2$ = 37%). Conclusion: These results suggest that the induction of fatigue can decrease postural stability and exercise performance of Taekwondo athletes during training and competition sessions.

Refractive Indices and Densities of B2O3-Al2O3-SiO2 Glass System for Photosensitive Barrier Ribs of Plasma Display Panel (플라즈마 디스플레이 패널의 감광성 격벽을 위한 B2O3-Al2O3-SiO2 유리계의 굴절률과 밀도)

  • Won, Ju-Yeon;Hwang, Seong-Jin;Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Hyung-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.506-511
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    • 2009
  • For the application of the photosensitive barrier ribs with optimal properties such as glass transition temperature, refractive index and coefficient thermal expansion, the boro-silicate glasses was studied. The glass transition temperature, coefficient thermal expansion, and refractive index of the glasses based on the $B_2O_3-Al_2O_3-Al_2O_3-SiO_2$ glass system have been investigated with the different ratio of BaO/$Na_2O$ and $B_2O_3/Na_2O$. Increasing the ratio of $B_2O_3/Na_2O$ was led to the increase of coefficient thermal expansion and the decrease of glass transition temperature. The increase of refractive index of boro-silicate glasses increased with the density of glasses. We suggest the empirical equation for the prediction of refractive index with the glass density, $n=0.123{\rho}+1.182$ with 0.042 as the standard deviation in the boro-silicate glass system. The aim of the present paper is to give a basic result of the thermal and optical properties for designing the composition of photosensitive barrier ribs in PDP.

Estimation of Forest Productive Area of Quercus acutissima and Quercus mongolica Using Site Environmental Variables (산림 입지토양 환경요인에 의한 상수리나무와 신갈나무의 적지추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Woo;Won, Hyung-Kyu;Shin, Man-Yong;Son, Young-Mo;Lee, Yoon-Young
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.429-434
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted to estimate site productivity of Quercus acutissima and Quercus mongolica by four forest climatic zones. We used site environmental variables (28 geographical and pedological factors) and site index as a site productivity indicator from nation-wide 23,315 stands. Based on multiple regression analysis between site index and major environmental variables, the best-fit multivaliate models were made by each species and forest climatic zone. Most of site index prediction models by species were regressed with seven to eight factors, including altitude, relief, soil depth, and soil moisture etc. For those models, three evaluation statistics such as mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference were applied to the test data set for the validation of the results. According to the evaluation statistics, it was found that the models by climatic zones and species fitted well to the test data set with relatively low bias and variation. Also having above middle of site index range, total area of productive sites for the two Quercus spp. estimated by those models would be about 6% of total forest area. Northern temperate forest zone and central temperate forest zone had more productive area than southern temperate forest zone and warm temperate forest zone. As a result, it was concluded that the regressive prediction with site environmental variables by climatic zones and species had enough estimation capability of forest site productivity.

Determination of Hydrophyte Index of Native Plant on the Downstream Slope of Earth Fill Dam (필댐 하류사면 자생식물의 습생지수 결정)

  • Kim, Hyun Soo;Ryu, Bum Hee;Park, Seung Ki
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of study was to determine the hygrophyte index of each plant(HIP) considering the moisture environment condition (MEC) of the native plants on the downstream slope of the fill dam and evaluate its applicability which to develop a method to search for leaks and saturated zones of the fill dam for status evaluation of precision safety diagnosis. The HIP was weighted average and consisted of 19 ranks. The weighted average was calculated according to the following three procedures: First, the linear assumption was made according to the actual habitat environmental conditions, the second one was weighted to 10% of the optimal habitat condition, and finally the average value of the distribution range values. The Hygrophyte index of vegetation at each plot (HIV) was obtained from the Sinheung reservoir (Yesan-gun, Chungcheongnam-do) using the results of vegetation survey of the Sinheung reservoir with precision safety diagnosis and suggested the use of the hygrophyte index of the cultivated vegetation. The average HIP range of plant species that emerged in 50 survey sites on the downstream slope of the Sinheung reservoir is 2.99 to 3.56. The coefficient of variation showed a large difference depending on the appearance of the leakage indicator plant(LIP) species. The range of HIV is 2.80 to 4.26, the mean value is 3.37, standard deviation is 0.37 and the coefficient of variation is 9.7%. As a result, the value of the coefficient of variation showed a large difference depending on the appearance of the plant species.

Correlation between cone-beam computed tomographic findings and the apnea-hypopnea index in obstructive sleep apnea patients: A cross-sectional study

  • Marco Isaac;Dina Mohamed ElBeshlawy;Ahmed Elsobki;Dina Fahim Ahmed;Sarah Mohammed Kenawy
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to explore the correlations of cone-beam computed tomographic findings with the apnea-hypopnea index in patients with obstructive sleep apnea. Materials and Methods: Forty patients with obstructive sleep apnea were selected from the ear-nose-throat (ENT) outpatient clinic, Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura University. Cone-beam computed tomography was performed for each patient at the end of both inspiration and expiration. Polysomnography was carried out, and the apnea-hypopnea index was obtained. Linear measurements, including cross-sectional area and the SNA and SNB angles, were obtained. Four oral and maxillofacial radiologists categorized pharyngeal and retropalatal airway morphology and calculated the airway length and volume. Continuous data were tested for normality using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and reported as the mean and standard deviation or as the median and range. Categorical data were presented as numbers and percentages, and the significance level was set at P<0.05. Results: The minimal value of the cross-sectional area, SNB angle, and airway morphology at the end of inspiration demonstrated a statistically significant association (P<0.05) with the apnea-hypopnea index, with excellent agreement. No statistically significant difference was found in the airway volume, other linear measurements, or retropalatal airway morphology. Conclusion: Cone-beam computed tomographic measurements in obstructive sleep apnea patients may be used as a supplement to a novel radiographic classification corresponding to the established clinical apnea-hypopnea index classification.

A STUDY ON THE GENERATING SYSTEM RELIABILITY INDEX EVALUATION WITH CONSIDERING THE LOAD FORECASTING UNCERTAINTY (수요예측에 오차를 고려한 신뢰도 지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Song, K.Y.;Kim, Y.H.;Cha, J.M.;Oh, K.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1991.07a
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    • pp.402-405
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    • 1991
  • This paper represents a new method for computing reliability indices by using Large Deviation method which is one of the probabilistic production cost simulations. The reliability measures are based on the models used for the loads and for the generating unit failure states. In computing these measures it has been tacitly assumed that the values of all parameters in the models are precisely known. In fact, however, some of these values must often be chosen with a considerable degree of uncertainty involved. This is particularly true for the forecast peak loads in the load model, where there is an inherent uncertainty in the method of forecasting, which are frequently based on insufficient statistics. In this paper, the effect of load forecasting uncertainty on the LOLP(Loss of Load Probability), is investigated. By applying the Large Deviation method to the IEEE Rilability Test System, it is verified that the proposed method is generally very accurate and very fast for computing system reliability indices.

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A Research on the Vibration Characteristics of Vehicle due to Speaker Sound at Low Frequency (저주파 스피커 출력음 대비 차량 진동 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Ki-Chang;Kim, Chan-Mook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.909-917
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    • 2007
  • Recently the trend of automobile industry is that IQS evaluation index against a sensitivity quality is increasing. To reduce rattle noise due to speaker sound at low frequencies, it is required the advanced investigation of a package tray panel and a door module panel. This paper optimized the design parameters of package tray panel according to the theoretical background about robust design and suggested the design guideline for resonance avoidance and the reduction of vibrational sensitivity considering the excitation frequency of woofer speaker. In addition, it is suggested the design guideline of a door module panel through the sensitivity analysis in case of the speaker excitation. Finally, the design factor analysis of the quality deviation of a mother-car will make it possible to guarantee the stable characteristics of vehicle vibration in the early stage of vehicle development. These improvements can lead to shortening the time needed to develop better vehicles.

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