• Title/Summary/Keyword: Development and use of models

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Identification of yearly variation in Hwacheon dam inflow using trend analysis and hydrological sensitivity method (경향성 분석과 수문학적 민감도 기법을 이용한 화천댐 유입량의 연별 변동량 규명)

  • Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.425-438
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    • 2018
  • Existing studies that analyze the causes and effects of water circulation use mostly rainfall - runoff models, which requires much effort in model development, calibration and verification. In this study, hydrological sensitivity analysis which can separate quantitatively the impacts by natural factors and anthropogenic factor was applied to the Hwacheon dam upper basin from 1967 to 2017. As a result of using various variable change point detection methods, 1999 was detected as a statistically significant change point. Especially, based on the hydrological sensitivity analysis using 5 Budyko based functions, it was estimated that the average inflow reduction amount by Imnam dam construction was $1.890\;billion\;m^3/year$. This results in this study was slightly larger than the those by existing researchers due to increase of rainfall and decrease of Hwacheon dam inflow. In future, it was suggested that effective water management measures were needed to resolve theses problems. Especially, it can be suggested that the monthly or seasonal analysis should be performed and also the prediction of discharge for future climate change should be considered to establish resonable measures.

Development of a Mechanistic Reasoning Model Based on Biologist's Inquiries (생물학자의 탐구에 기반한 메커니즘 추론 모델 개발)

  • Jeong, Sunhee;Yang, Ilho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.599-610
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze mechanistic reasoning in Fabre's inquires and to develop mechanistic reasoning model. To analyze the order of the process elements in mechanistic reasoning, 30 chapters were selected in book. Inquiries were analyzed through a framework which is based on Russ et al. (2008). The nine process elements of mechanistic reasoning that was presented in Fabre's inquires were as follows: Describing the Target Phenomenon, Identifying prior Knowledge, Identifying Properties of Objects, Identifying Setup Conditions, Identifying Activities, Conjecturing Entities, Identifying Properties of Entities, Identifying Entities, and Organization of Entities. The order of process elements of mechanistic reasoning was affected by inquiry's subject, types of question, prior knowledge and situation. Three mechanistic reasoning models based on the process elements of mechanistic reasoning were developed: Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Entities(MIE), Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Activities(MIA), and Mechanistic reasoning model for Identifying Properties of entities (MIP). Science teacher can help students to use the questions of not only "why" but also "How", "If", "What", when students identify entities or generate hypotheses. Also science teacher should be required to understand mechanistic reasoning to give students opportunities to generate diverse hypotheses. If students can't conjecture entities easily, MIA and MIP would be helpful for students.

A Practical Feature Extraction for Improving Accuracy and Speed of IDS Alerts Classification Models Based on Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 IDS 보안이벤트 분류 모델의 정확도 및 신속도 향상을 위한 실용적 feature 추출 연구)

  • Shin, Iksoo;Song, Jungsuk;Choi, Jangwon;Kwon, Taewoong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.385-395
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    • 2018
  • With the development of Internet, cyber attack has become a major threat. To detect cyber attacks, intrusion detection system(IDS) has been widely deployed. But IDS has a critical weakness which is that it generates a large number of false alarms. One of the promising techniques that reduce the false alarms in real time is machine learning. However, there are problems that must be solved to use machine learning. So, many machine learning approaches have been applied to this field. But so far, researchers have not focused on features. Despite the features of IDS alerts are important for performance of model, the approach to feature is ignored. In this paper, we propose new feature set which can improve the performance of model and can be extracted from a single alarm. New features are motivated from security analyst's know-how. We trained and tested the proposed model applied new feature set with real IDS alerts. Experimental results indicate the proposed model can achieve better accuracy and false positive rate than SVM model with ordinary features.

The Development of Wide-span Plastic Film Greenhouse for Strawberry Seedling Cultivation (딸기 육묘용 광폭 플라스틱 필름 온실 개발)

  • Man Kwon Choi;Myeong Whan Cho;Hyun Ho Shin;Ki Bum Kweon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.442-448
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to develop an optimal greenhouse model for strawberry seedling during the summer high-temperature period based on the results of field surveys. We conducted a survey on the structure types of 46 strawberry seedling farms nationwide, including width, ridge height, eaves height, ventilation method, seedling bed width, and spacing. Based on the survey results, we derived the optimal greenhouse model by considering various factors. The greenhouse width was set at 14 meters to maximize the efficiency of seedling beds and overall space. The height was determined at 2 meters, taking into account ventilation during the summer season. To reduce stress on the supporting structure due to snow loads, we established a reinforcement installation angle of 50 degrees. We analyzed two different models that use support beams with dimensions of φ48.1×2.1t and φ59.9×3.2t, respectively, to ensure structural safety against meteorological disasters, considering regional design wind speeds and snow accumulation. We utilized these developed greenhouse model to conduct strawberry seedling experiments, resulting in a high survival rate of average 93.2%. These findings confirm the usefulness of the strawberry seedling greenhouse in improving the seedling environment and enhancing overall efficiency.

Development of a hip model for impact testing of bedsore prevention cushions (욕창예방 방석의 충격시험용 둔부 모형 개발)

  • JUNG, SUNGBAE;YUK, SUNWOO;Ki-Won Choi;Sangsoo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.7-11
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    • 2024
  • The bedsore prevention cushion serves to prevent the skin on the buttocks of a wheelchair user from being damaged through friction with the wheelchair seat. This is because it absorbs some of the weight applied to the wheelchair seat and allows the weight to be applied evenly to the entire contact surface. For the impact test, which is part of the performance testing of bedsore prevention cushions, a hip model that represents the sitting posture of a wheelchair user is required. In this study, a hip model was manufactured for impact testing of bedsore prevention cushions for wheelchairs. Performance tests for pressure bedsore prevention cushions for wheelchairs include KSP 0236, a Korean standard, and KS P ISO 16840-2, an ISO international standard. The hip model proposed in KS P ISO 16840-2 was more suitable for impact testing of bedsore prevention cushions for wheelchairs. However, the guidelines for making hip models proposed by international standards need to be modified to reflect the advancement of model making technology and use easier methods. We propose a new hip model production method that produces a hip model out of plastic all at once and additionally attaches SS-41 steel plates processed into the shape of the hip to make the mass of the model similar to the human body.

Targeted Therapies and Radiation for the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer (두경부 암의 표적 지향적 방사선 치료)

  • Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: The purpose of this review Is to provide an update on novel radiation treatments for head and neck cancer Recent Findings: Despite the remarkable advances In chemotherapy and radiotherapy techniques, the management of advanced head and neck cancer remains challenging. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) Is an appealing target for novel therapies In head and neck cancer because not only EGFR activation stimulates many important signaling pathways associated with cancer development and progression, and importantly, resistance to radiation. Furthermore, EGFR overexpression Is known to be portended for a worse outcome in patients with advanced head and neck cancer. Two categories of compounds designed to abrogate EGFR signaling, such as monoclonal antibodies (Cetuxlmab) and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (ZD1839 and 051-774) have been assessed and have been most extensively studied In preclinical models and clinical trials. Additional TKIs In clinical trials include a reversible agent, Cl-1033, which blocks activation of all erbB receptors. Encouraging preclinical data for head and neck cancers resulted In rapid translation Into the clinic. Results from Initial clinical trials show rather surprisingly that only minority of patients benefited from EGFR inhibition as monotherapy or In combination with chemotherapy. In this review, we begin with a brief summary of erbB- mediated signal transduction. Subsequently, we present data on prognostic-predictive value of erbB receptor expression in HNC followed by preclinlcal and clinical data on the role of EGFR antagonists alone or in combination with radiation In the treatment of HNC. Finally, we discuss the emerging thoughts on resistance to EGFR biockade and efforts In the development of multiple-targeted therapy for combination with chemotherapy or radiation. Current challenges for investigators are to determine (1 ) who will benefit from targeted agents and which agents are most appropriate to combine with radiation and/or chemotherapy, (2) how to sequence these agents with radiation and/or cytotoxlc compounds, (3) reliable markers for patient selection and verification of effective blockade of signaling in vivo, and (4) mechanisms behind intrinsic or acquired resistance to targeted agents to facilitate rational development of multi-targeted therapy, Other molecuiar-targeted approaches In head and neck cancer were briefly described, Including angloenesis Inhibitors, farnesyl transferase inhibitors, cell cycle regulators, and gene therapy Summary: Novel targeted theraples are highly appealing in advanced head and neck cancer, and the most premising strategy to use them Is a matter of intense Investigation.

Development of Short-term Heat Demand Forecasting Model using Real-time Demand Information from Calorimeters (실시간 열량계 정보를 활용한 단기 열 수요 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Sang Hwa;Shin, KwangSup;Lee, JaeHun;Jung, YunJae;Lee, JaeSeung;Yoon, SeokMann
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2020
  • District heating system supplies heat from low-cost high-efficiency heat production facilities to heat demand areas through a heat pipe network. For efficient heat supply system operation, it is important to accurately predict the heat demand within the region and optimize the heat production plan accordingly. In this study, a heat demand forecasting model is proposed considering real-time calorimeter information from local heat demands. Previous models considered ambient temperature and heat demand history data to predict future heat demands. To improve forecast accuracy, the proposed heat demand forecast model added big data from real-time calorimeters installed in the heat demands within the target region. By employing calorimeter information directly in the model, it is expected that the proposed forecast model is to reflect heat use pattern of each demand. Computational experiemtns based on the actual heat demand data shows that the forecast accuracy of the proposed model improved when the calorimeter big data is reflected.

Simultaneous Effect between eWOM and Revenues: Korea Movie Industry (온라인 구전과 영화 매출 간 상호영향에 관한 연구: 한국 영화 산업을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Jungho;Shim, Bum Jun;Kim, Byung-Do
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • Motion pictures are so typical experience goods that consumers tend to look for more credible information. Hence, movie audiences consider movie viewers' reviews more important than the information provided by the film distributor. Recently many portal sites allow consumers to post their reviews and opinions so that other people check the number of consumer reviews and scores before going to the theater. There are a few previous researches studying the electronic word of mouth(eWOM) effect in the movie industry. They found that the volume of eWOM influenced the revenue of the movie significantly but the valence of eWOM did not affect it much (Liu 2006). The goal of our research is also to investigate the eWOM effects in general. But our research is different from the previous studies in several aspects. First, we study the eWOM effect in Korean movie industry. In other words, we would like to check whether we can generalize the results of the previous research across countries. The similar econometric models are applied to Korean movie data that include 746,282 consumer reviews on 439 movies. Our results show that both the valence(RATING) and the volume(LNMSG) of the eWOM influence weekly movie revenues. This result is different from the previous research findings that the volume only influences the revenue. We conjectured that the difference of self construal between Asian and American culture may explain this difference (Kitayama 1991). Asians including Koreans have more interdependent self construal than American, so that they are easily affected by other people's thought and suggestion. Hence, the valence of the eWOM affects Koreans' choice of the movie. Second, we find the critical defect of the previous eWOM models and, hence, attempt to correct it. The previous eWOM model assumes that the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) is an independent variable affecting the movie revenue (LNREV). However, the revenue can influence the volume of the eWOM. We think that treating the volume of eWOM as an independent variable a priori is too restrictive. In order to remedy this problem, we employed a simultaneous equation in which the movie revenue and the volume of the eWOM can affect each other. That is, our eWOM model assumes that the revenue (LNREV) and the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) have endogenous relationship where they influence each other. The results from this simultaneous equation model showed that the movie revenue and the eWOM volume interact each other. The movie revenue influences the eWOM volume for the entire 8 weeks. The reverse effect is more complex. Both the volume and the valence of eWOM affect the revenue in the first week, but only the volume affect the revenue for the rest of the weeks. In the first week, consumers may be curious about the movie and look for various kinds of information they can trust, so that they use the both the quantity and quality of consumer reviews. But from the second week, the quality of the eWOM only affects the movie revenue, implying that the review ratings are more important than the number of reviews. Third, our results show that the ratings by professional critics (CRATING) had negative effect to the weekly movie revenue (LNREV). Professional critics often give low ratings to the blockbuster movies that do not have much cinematic quality. Experienced audiences who watch the movie for fun do not trust the professionals' ratings and, hence, tend to go for the low-rated movies by them. In summary, applied to the Korean movie ratings data and employing a simultaneous model, our results are different from the previous eWOM studies: 1) Koreans (or Asians) care about the others' evaluation quality more than quantity, 2) The volume of eWOM is not the cause but the result of the revenue, 3) Professional reviews can give the negative effect to the movie revenue.

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Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

Evaluation of K-Cabbage Model for Yield Prediction of Chinese Cabbage in Highland Areas (고랭지 배추 생산 예측을 위한 K-배추 모델 평가)

  • Seong Eun Lee;Hyun Hee Han;Kyung Hwan Moon;Dae Hyun Kim;Byung-Hyuk Kim;Sang Gyu Lee;Hee Ju Lee;Suhyun Ryu;Hyerim Lee;Joon Yong Shim;Yong Soon Shin;Mun Il Ahn;Hee Ae Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.398-403
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    • 2023
  • Process-based K-cabbage model is based on physiological processes such as photosynthesis and phenology, making it possible to predict crop growth under different climate conditions that have never been experienced before. Current first-stage process-based models can be used to assess climate impact through yield prediction based on climate change scenarios, but no comparison has been performed between big data obtained from the main production area and model prediction so far. The aim of this study was to find out the direction of model improvement when using the current model for yield prediction. For this purpose, model performance evaluation was conducted based on data collected from farmers growing 'Chungwang' cabbage in Taebaek and Samcheok, the main producing areas of Chinese cabbage in highland region. The farms surveyed in this study had different cultivation methods in terms of planting date and soil water and nutrient management. The results showed that the potential biomass estimated using the K-cabbage model exceeded the observed values in all cases. Although predictions and observations at the time of harvest did not show a complete positive correlation due to limitations caused by the use of fresh weight in the model evaluation process (R2=0.74, RMSE=866.4), when fitting the model based on the values 2 weeks before harvest, the growth suitability index was different for each farm. These results are suggested to be due to differences in soil properties and management practices between farms. Therefore, to predict attainable yields taking into account differences in soil and management practices between farms, it is necessary to integrate dynamic soil nutrient and moisture modules into crop models, rather than using arbitrary growth suitability indices in current K-cabbage model.