• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.597-600
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• 2008

Observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al.(1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

• 한국운동역학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2017

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify kinematic variables that govern successful performance and judges' scores and to establish correlative relationships among those of Yurchenko layout with a full twist in female vaults. Method: Four video cameras with sampling rate of 60 Hz collected 32 motion data of Yurchenko vaults from twenty-two female participants (age: $18.6{\pm}3.6years$, height: $153.0{\pm}6.5cm$, mass: $44.7{\pm}7.3kg$) during national competition. Posting processing and calculations of kinematic variables were performed in Kwon 3D XP and $Matlab^{(R)}$ programs. Correlation and regression analyses were applied to find the relationships between the obtained scores and kinematic variables. Deterministic model (Hay & Reid, 1988) was used to investigate the strength of correlative relationships among kinematic variables. Results: The obtained scores from the judges' decision were mainly affected by post-flight peak height, horse contact time, knee angle at landing, and horse takeoff angle. Strong blocking during horse contact was required to get successful performance and obtain high scores. Modified deterministic model showed that round-off entrance and takeoff angles and resultant velocity of the center of mass (CM) during the roundoff phase were the starting variables affecting performance in the following kinematics. Knee angle at landing, a highly influential variable on the obtained point, was only determined by judges' decision without significant correlative relationship with previous kinematic variables. Conclusion: The obtained scores highly depended on kinematic variables of post-flight and horse contact phases that were affected by those from the previous phases including round-off postures and resultant velocity of the body center of mass.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.43-50
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• 2009

Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 10th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1177-1186
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• 2024

The construction sector, in relation to human's residential issues, serves as the cornerstone of societal systems, economic security, the national economy, individuals and households, economic activity, national safety, management, business, and government. Also, the essential sectors, such as electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, and natural gas distribution, water, sewage, and stormwater systems, and so on, form the heart of our social system. These essential sectors of our society provide core goods and services for continuous public health services, construction services, government operations, multiple businesses, and national and economic safety. Therefore, those systems are the cornerstone of our society, and strengthening their security and resilience is of utmost significance. However, the existing framework for assessing and evaluating the problems with regard to those systems lacks efficient methods and mechanisms. The main objective of this research is to define correlations between different infrastructures within an economic system to strengthen the resilience and security of the construction sector. This study will be conducted to identify physical relationships between different industries within an economic system and to define deterministic relationships through the values of interconnectedness and interdependency. In addition, this research attempts to complete a probabilistic estimation of economic impacts using historical economic data and to develop an assessment model that can be used in the future to measure economic impact in terms of the construction sector. In case of loss in the construction sector due to exogenous factors, identifying which critical infrastructures or sectors will be the most affected will help minimize the risks and property damages. Furthermore, improving the resiliency of the construction sector will help speed recovery from or resistance to unpredictable external elements.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.133-147
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• 1998

Recently, many researchers have been involved in finding deterministic equations which can accurately predict future event, based on chaotic theory, or fractal theory. The theory says that some events which seem very random but internally deterministic can be accurately predicted by fractal equations. In contrast to the conventional methods, such as AR model, MA, model, or ARIMA model, the fractal equation attempts to discover a deterministic order inherent in time series data set. In discovering deterministic order, researchers have found that neural networks are much more effective than the conventional statistical models. Even though prediction accuracy of the network can be different depending on the topological structure and modification of the algorithms, many researchers asserted that the neural network systems outperforms other systems, because of non-linear behaviour of the network models, mechanisms of massive parallel processing, generalization capability based on adaptive learning. However, recent survey shows that prediction accuracy of the forecasting models can be determined by the model structure and data structures. In the experiments based on actual economic data sets, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the neural network model is similar to the performance level of the conventional forecasting model. Especially, for the data set which is deterministically chaotic, the AR model, a conventional statistical model, was not significantly different from the MLP model, a neural network model. This result shows that the forecasting model. This result shows that the forecasting model a, pp.opriate to a prediction task should be selected based on characteristics of the time series data set. Analysis of the characteristics of the data set was performed by fractal analysis, measurement of Hurst index, and measurement of Lyapunov exponents. As a conclusion, a significant difference was not found in forecasting future events for the time series data which is deterministically chaotic, between a conventional forecasting model and a typical neural network model.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제28권9B호
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• pp.783-792
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• 2003

We consider a finite-buffer discrete-time queueing system with fixed-size bulk-service discipline: Geo/ $G^{B}$1/K＋B. The main purpose of this paper is to present a performance analysis of this system that has a wide range of applications in Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) and other related telecommunication systems. For this purpose, we first derive the departure-epoch probabilities based on the embedded Markov chain method. Next, based on simple rate in and rate out argument, we present stable relationships for the steady-state probabilities of the queue length at different epochs: departure, random, and arrival. Finally, based on these relationships, we present various useful performance measures of interest such as the moments of number of packets in the system at three different epochs and the loss probability. The numerical results are presented for a deterministic service-time distribution - a case that has gained importance in recent years.s.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.95-103
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• 2008

지진이 발생하기 전에 피해규모를 물리적, 경제적, 사회적 재해로 구분하여 예측하고, 이를 이용하여 사전에 충분히 대처한다면 그 피해를 최소한으로 경감할 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서는 HAZUS의 결정론적 방법을 이용하여 경주지역 규모 6.7의 가상지진에 의한 재해를 예측해보았다. 이 방법을 이용하기 위해, 본 연구에서는 한반도 감쇠특성과 가장 잘 부합한다고 판단되는 Sadigh 등(1997)의 식에 지반분류 B, C와 D를 적용하였다. 그 외에도 이 방법에서 사용이 가능한 여러 감쇠식을 적용하여 같은 지역의 지진재해를 예측한 후 서로 상이하게 나타나는 피해규모를 살펴보았다. 각기 다른 감쇠식 적용에 따라 재해예측결과는 다소 다르게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 이번 연구에서 산출한 지진재해 예측결과는 연구지역의 지진재해위험성을 미리 살펴 재해발생 시 인명 및 재산 피해를 최대한 경감시키고, 응급상황에 신속히 대처할 수 있도록 재해저감 정책수립 단계에서 효과적으로 활용될 수 있으리라 사료된다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1996년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 공군사관학교, 청주; 26-27 Apr. 1996
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• pp.213-216
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• 1996

R'||'&'||'D project management is a process of decisions concerned with the achievement of goals of objectives. Especially, defense R'||'&'||'D project planning is the key in the successfull management of defense development. The defense project managers are constantly having to perform "what if\ulcorner" exercise, such as what if the project is extended out for an additional cost\ulcorner In this reserch, we developed a schedule-cost analysis model based upon Critical Path Method(CPM) and Venture Evaluation and Review Technique(VERT) for schedule-cost trade off analysis defense R'||'&'||'D projects. In the first step, a deterministic model is developed as a heuristic which deterministic model is developed as a heuristic which determines the schedule extension and reduction cost as a function desired schedule. In the second step, a stochastic network simulation model is developed to analyse the project risk (sucess and failure). The expected time and cost can be determined for desired schedule under the assumptions of stochastic arc data (time and cost) with a various precedence relationships. This model provides the defense R'||'&'||'D managers with an estimated and expected cost for curtailing or extending a project a given amount of time. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods, a heuristic and stochastic networks simulations, have been demonstrated through examples.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제32권E호
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• pp.33-46
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• 1990

Abstract Over 700/0 of the rural land area in Korea is mountainous and small watersheds provide most of the water resources for agricutural use. To provide an appropriate tool for the agricultural water resource development project, SNUA2, a mathematical model for simulating the physical processes governing the precipitation-runoff relationships and predicting the storm and long-term runoff quantities from the small mountainous watersheds was developed. The hydrological characteristics of small mountainous watersheds were reviewed to select appropriate theories for the simulation of the runoff processes, and a deterministic and distributed model was developed. In this, subsurface flows are routed by solving Richard's two dimensional equation, the dynamics of soil moisture contents are simulated by the consideration of phenological factors of canopy plants and surface flows are routed by solving the kinematic wave theory by numerical analysis. As a result of an application test of the model to the Sanglim watershed, peak flow rates of storm runoff were over-estimated by up to 184.2%. The occurence time of peak flow and total runoff volume of storm runoffs simulated were consistent with observed values and the annual runoff volumes were simulated in the error range of less than 5.8%.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.49-60
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• 2003

In this paper, we study the joint design of sampling inspections and service capacities for multi-products. Products of different defect rates which are either deterministic or random variables are supplied in batches after sampling inspection and rework. When supplied, all defective products that have not been inspected in batches are uncovered through total inspection and returned to service. We identify the optimal inspection policies and service capacities for multi-products reflecting the relationships between inspection rework costs and service provision costs. We also develope a marginal allocation algorithm for the optimal allocation of the limited total service capacity to products as well as inspection quantities.