• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.869-877
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• 2022

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting the re-subscription period upon initial termination of the reverse mortgage subscription. The study utilized the Korea Housing Finance Corporation's database to extract the information regarding re-subscribers of the reverse mortgage from July 2007 to June 2021. The ordered logit model was employed and found that a set of user (subscriber) characteristics are influential towards the re-subscription period. Among the individual characteristics, changes in age group, marital status from married to single-living, maintaining single-living, and the initial subscription period were found statistically significant, highlighting that the increase in the initial subscription period decreased the re-subscription period. Among the housing (home equity) characteristics, changes in housing price and ownership type (single and partial ownership) were statistically significant, indicating that the change in ownership type decreases the re-subscription period. Lastly, the variables related to loan terms were found significant, revealing that changes in payout method and schedule were both increasing factors of the re-subscription period. Based on the findings, necessary policy implications can be considered to secure the returning subscribers of the reverse mortgage effectively.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.35-73
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• 2010

This paper examines consumption dynamics in relation to asset prices in Korea. Empirical analysis based on the error correction model shows that personal consumption is affected by changes in asset prices but the consumption converges to the long-run level of consumption corresponding to the total income flow in two years. This adjustment in consumption implies that the consumption error, reflected in the error correction term, should have predictability for the future consumption growth during the adjustment period. It is found that the error correction term has a long-run predictability for consumption over up to about 3 years; thus, confirming the error correction model. It is also found that housing prices have larger effects on consumption compared with stock prices in Korea. In addition, the effects of income and asset prices on consumption show bigger effects during contractionary period than expansionary period in business cycles. This paper also analyzes effects of asset wealth that reflects changes in both price and quantity. It is found that asset wealth has a long-run effect on consumption in addition to total income as determinants of consumption. Since wealth effects usually indicate the long-run effect of changes in asset wealth on consumption that is not explained by labor income, which is the proxy for human source of wealth, it is estimated with labor income used as a control variable. According to the estimation, the marginal propencity to consume out of asset wealth is approximately 2%. It means that 1,000won increase in asset wealth may lead to 20 won increase in consumption.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.651-673
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• 2007

In the studies on residential move, there has been tendency of dichotomy where short distance moves are largely caused by housing to adjust to changes in households while long distance moves are induced by shift in labor market. However, some empirical studies have proven that residential move is so complex process that the simple dichotomy should be elaborated. In this sense, the present study seeks to identify compounded course of residential move in Korea. In determining migration history, families with younger householders, renters, householders with higher educational attainment and smaller households show a higher probability to move. In case of mobility, women were more prone to move compared to man. Women compared to man, older age augmented the probability to own a house after migration. Families with householders following an occupation of sales and technical service showed lowest tendency to own houses while it marked the highest in the group of professionals. Higher land price of a region was negatively related to owning houses after migration. The present study revealed that factors in macro level as well as micro level significantly affect the move of individuals with varying effects in accordance with migration history.