• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

This study attempts to examine the process of establishing a Japanese-style garden in the modern period through the perspectives of garden designers, spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used in their works, and to use it as data for embodying the identity of Korean garden. The results are as follows: First, by incorporating elements associated with Koreanness into the modern garden culture, there are differences in location, presence, and subjectivity when compared to Japan. This reflects Japan's relatively seamless cultural continuity compared to Korea's cultural disconnection during the modern period. Second, prior to the modern period, Japan's garden culture spread and continued to develop throughout the country without significant interruptions. However, during the modern period, the Meiji government promoted the policy of 'civilization and enlightenment (Bunmei-kaika, 文明開化)' and introduced advanced European and American civilizations, leading to the popularity of Western-style architectural techniques. Unfortunately, the rapid introduction of Western culture caused the traditional Japanese culture to be overshadowed. In 1879, British architect Josiah Condor guided Japanese architects and introduced atelier and traditional designs of Japanese gardens into the design. The garden style of Ogawa Jihei VII, a garden designer in Kyoto during the Meiji and Taisho periods, was accepted by influential political and business leaders who sought to preserve Japan's traditional culture. And a protection system of garden was established through the preparation of various laws and regulations. Third, as a comprehensive analysis of Japanese modern gardens, the examination of garden designers, Japanese components, materials, elements, and the Japanese-style showed that Yamagata Aritomo, Ogawa Jihei VII, and Mirei Shigemori were representative garden designers who preserved the Japanese-style in their gardens. They introduced features such as the creation of a Daejicheon(大池泉) garden, which involves a large pond on a spacious land, as well as the naturalistic borrowed scenery method and water flow. Key components of Japanese-style gardens include the use of turf, winding garden paths, and the variation of plant species. Fourth, an analysis of the Japanese-style elements in the target sites revealed that the use of flowing water had the highest occurrence at 47.06% among the individual elements of spatial composition. Daejicheon and naturalistic borrowed scenery were also shown. The use of turf and winding paths were at 65.88% and 78.82%, respectively. The alteration of tree species was relatively less common at 28.24% compared to the application of turf or winding paths. Fifth, it is essential to discover more gardens from the modern period and meticulously document the creators or owners of the gardens, the spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used. This information will be invaluable in uncovering the identity of our own gardens. This study was conducted based on the analysis of the process of establishing the Japanese-style during Japan's modern period, utilizing examples of garden designers and gardens. While this study has limitations, such as the absence of in-depth research and more case studies or specific techniques, it sets the stage for future exploration.