• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand factor

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Development of Trip Generation Type Models toward Traffic Zone Characteristics (Zone특성 분할을 통한 유형별 통행발생 모형개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Young-Taek
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2010
  • Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step model and has great effects on overall demand forecasting, so accuracy really matters at this stage. A linear regression model is widely used as a current trip generation model for such plans as urban transportation and SOC facilities, assuming that the relationship between each socio-economic index and trip generation stays linear. But when rapid urban development or an urban planning structure has changed, socio-economic index data for trip estimation may be lacking to bring many errors in estimated trip. Hence, instead of assuming that a socio-economic index widely used for a general purpose, this study aims to develop a new trip generation model by type based on the market separation for the variables to reflect the characteristics of various zones. The study considered the various characteristics (land use, socio-economic) of zones to enhance the forecasting accuracy of a trip generation model, the first-step in forecasting transportation demands. For a market separation methodology to improve forecasting accuracy, data mining (CART) on the basis of trip generation was used along with a regression analysis. Findings of the study indicated as follows : First, the analysis of zone characteristics using the CART analysis showed that trip production was under the influence of socio-economic factors (men-women relative proportion, age group (22 to 29)), while trip attraction was affected by land use factors (the relative proportion of business facilities) and the socio-economic factor (the relative proportion of third industry workers). Second, model development by type showed as a result that trip generation coefficients revealed 0.977 to 0.987 (trip/person) for "production" 0.692 to 3.256 (trip/person) for "attraction", which brought the necessity for type classifications. Third, a measured verification was conducted, where "production" and "attraction" showed a higher suitability than the existing model. The trip generation model by type developed in this study, therefore, turned out to be superior to the existing one.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.89-108
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    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

A Study of Fish Community on Up and Downstream of Hwabuk Dam Under Construction in the Upper Wie Stream. (위천 상류에 건설 중인 화북댐 상 하류 어류군집에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Jin-Won;Kim, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.260-269
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    • 2009
  • Hwabuk Dam has been under construction to reduce flood damage in Nakdong River watershed and to supply stable water for middle area of Gyeongbuk Province. Therefore, fish investigation in up and downstream of the dam was conducted from 2004 to 2008 in order to determine any negative effect on fish community due to dam construction and to use as fundamental data for conserving species diversity and maintaining stream health. According to data analysis on water quality, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, and total E-coli had seasonal variation, but they did not significantly differ in sites. However, biological and chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, and phosphorus representing organic matter and nutrient concentration were higher in upper site and decreased to lower site so that they differed by site. Concentration of arsenic among the heavy metals was less than 0.05 mg $L^{-1}$, which is regulated for protection of human health in water quality standard, except for 0.092 mg $L^{-1}$ in June 2005. During the study period, the total number of fish caught from the 6 sites was 10,263 representing 7 families 19 species. Among them, dominant and subdominant species were Korean chub (Zacco koreanus, 62.5%) and Chinese minnow (Rhynchocypris oxycephalus, 10.6%) which inhabit mostly in mid and upper streams, Korea. Among the 19 species, Korean endemic species were 9 species (47.4%) including Korean slender gudgeon (Squalidus gracilis majimae), Korean dark sleeper (Odontobutis platycephala), and Korean shiner (Coreoleuciscus splendidus). There was several individuals of the $1^{st}$-class endangered species, Naktong nose loach (Koreocobitis nahtongensis), caught in 2005${\sim}$2007, and no introduced species of fish was found in entire sampling period. According to result of community analysis, dominance index decreased toward lower site, but diversity and richness indices increased toward lower site. The equation of length-weight relationship on the dominant species was TW=0.000003$(TL)^{3.2603}$. The parameter b in the equation was greater than 3.0 indicating good nutritional condition in the populations. Compared to populations of Korean chub in other streams, the population in Hwabuk Dam watershed had higher mean of condition factor by size indicating better growth rate. With fish fauna and multi-metric health assessment model in each sampling attempt, index of biotic integrity (IBI) was evaluated and it resulted mostly in good (26${\sim}$35) and excellent (36${\sim}$40) condition in all sites, and the mean of IBI was the highest in site 5. The results indicate that it is very important to study not only environmental impact assessment with fish composition but also stream health assessment in order to conserve healthy aquatic ecosystem.

Research on the Bamboo in Korea(Part 10) - On the Bending Test of Phyllostachys reticulata (한국산(韓國産)의 죽류(竹類)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(제(第)10보(報)) - Phyllostachys reticulata의 굴곡시험(屈曲侍險)에 대(對)하여 -)

  • Chong, Hyon Pae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.27-31
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    • 1967
  • The bamboo is a plant whose culm grows straight up. This growing characteristics has been widely utilized in industry and craft. But the developments of handcraft making and horticultural techniques in recent years become to demand the bent bamboo culms. This study has been conducted at the experimental grove located at Hyunnae Ri, Okkye Myun, Myungju Gun, Kangwon Do since 1960. Although it has been known that the secret for which bamboo shoots complet growth within 40 odd days lies in their rhizomes, this writer felt the bamboo culm sheath might be another factor in addition. Hence some were stripped of sheath in this bending study as the following: 1. Time of sheath stripping. 2. Direction of sheath stripped for arbitrary bending. 3. Accuracy of bending following the size (growth) of bamboo shoots. The following results were obtained: 1. Bamboo shoots begin to appear in April. But the bamboo shot up in June showed the best bending result with 68% of bending efficiency. 2. Bending of the culm was facilitated by stripping off the sheath located on the side of the direction toward which bending was desired. By doing this, the culm could be bent as much as 90 degrees. But the culm totally stripped of sheath could be bent in any direction. 3. In order to determine the accuracy of bending of bamboo shoots growing, sheath were stripped off the shoots of which height ranged from 10 centimeter to 150 centimeters. The shoots with height of 110 centimeters showed the best result with 90%.

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A Study on the Influence of the Quality of the Care Service of the Caregivers in a Nursing Hospital for the Elderly in the Intent of Reuse: Focusing on Chinese-Korean Caregivers (노인요양병원 간병인의 돌봄서비스 질이 재이용의도에 미치는 영향 연구: 중국동포 간병인을 중심으로)

  • Song, In Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.456-467
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    • 2019
  • The rapid aging of South Korea is causing difficulties in meeting the man-power demands for the increasing number of elderly nursing hospitals. To cope with this gap in supply and demand, more foreign workers are now being hired to provide elderly care services. The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of the quality of the care services provided by foreign caregivers in nursing hospitals for the elderly. For this purpose, the researcher surveyed 249 senior citizens who are receiving care services from Chinese-Korean caregivers in six elderly nursing hospitals in Seoul and Gyeonggi region. The data collected from the survey were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. The result of the analyses showed that, first, the quality factors of the care services of the caregivers at elderly nursing hospitals, such as reliability, responsibility, empathy, formality, and expertise, all turned out to have a positive correlation with the trust in, satisfaction with, and intent to revisit the institute. Second, thefluencing factors for the qualities of the care services by Chinese-Korean care givers in elderly nursing hospitals included responsiveness, materiality, and expertise, while the factors that influenced satisfaction with significance included trust, materiality, and expertise. Also, the trust in and satisfaction with the institution both influenced the intent of revisit in a positive manner. Third, the indirect effect of trust in the relationship between the quality of the care services by the Chinese-Korean care givers and satisfaction, appeared in all independent variable except for responsiveness, which was a factor of the quality of the care services. And, it was also shown that the satisfaction level had an indirect effect in the relationship between trust and revisiting intent. The result of this study implicates that, in order to cause the quality of the care service by the Chinese-Korean care givers in elderly nursing hospitals to increase the revisit rate, it would be necessary to provide a strategy to increase the levels of trust and satisfaction through a higher quality level of care services.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

A Study on the Proposal for Extension of Local Autonomy and Financial Atonomy of Local Education

  • Park, Jong-Ryeol;Noe, Sang-Ouk
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2021
  • The measures to extend local education autonomy are as follows: First, it is necessary to correct the confusion of the legal system of the local education autonomy system. For this, Article 12, Paragraph 2 and 4 of the 「Special Act on Local Autonomy and Decentralization, and Restructuring of Local Administrative Systems」 which state that "The State shall endeavor to consolidate systems for autonomy in education and local government" and "The implementation of autonomy in education and the autonomous police system shall be prescribed separately by Acts" should be deleted. Second, it is necessary to clarify unnecessary legal matters and regulatory measures for unification at the national level and to proactively consider the introduction of the legal trust system, in which education affairs are designated as local governments' own work and the state carries out specific affairs. The decentralization of local education finance is a key factor for the development of local education autonomy, and it requires the transfer of authority and resources to the region, and the enhancement of local autonomy and corresponding responsibility. First, the ratio of special grants must be adjusted further (from 3% to 2%) or the ratio of national policy projects must be lowered. Second, the provision that requires a consultation with a mayor/governor when making a budget covered by transfers from general accounts should be deleted. Third, it is necessary to remove the elements that limit the authority of city and provincial councils. Fourth, it is necessary to integrate the national education tax and the local education tax to create the education autonomy tax (tentative name) for only one independent purpose. Fifth, it is necessary to strengthen the distribution of the total amount of grants and abolish the settlement regulations for the measurement items of standard financial demand. Sixth is the expansion of the participation of stakeholders and experts in the grant distribution process. Seventh, it is necessary to establish a long-term employment system by designating the education finance field as a special field. Eight is the expansion of cooperative governance.

Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

Next Generation Lightweight Structural Composite Materials for Future Mobility Review: Applicability of Self-Reinforced Composites (미래모빌리티를 위한 차세대 경량구조복합재료 검토: 자기강화복합재료의 적용 가능성)

  • Mi Na Kim;Ji-un Jang;Hyeseong Lee;Myung Jun Oh;Seong Yun Kim
    • Composites Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2023
  • Demand for energy consumption reduction is increasing according to the development expectations of future mobility. Lightweight structural materials are known as a method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. In particular, fiber reinforced polymer composite (FRP) is attracting attention as a material that can replace existing metal alloys due to its excellent mechanical properties and light weight. In this paper, industrial applications and research trends of carbon fiber reinforced composites (CFRP, carbon FRP) and self-reinforced composites (SRC) were reviewed based on the reinforcement, polymer matrix, and manufacturing process. In order to overcome the expensive process cost and long manufacturing time of the epoxy resin-based autoclave method, which is mainly used in the aircraft field, mass production of CFRP-applied electric vehicles has been reported using a high-pressure resin transfer molding process including fast-curing epoxy. In addition, thermoplastic resin-based CFRP and interface enhancement methods to solve the recycling issue of carbon fiber composites were reviewed in terms of materials and processes. To form a perfect matrix-reinforcement interface, which is known as the major factor inducing the excellent mechanical properties of FRP, studies on SRC impregnated with the same matrix in polymer fibers have been reported. The physical and mechanical properties of SRC based on various thermoplastic polymers were reviewed in terms of polymer orientation and composite structure. In addition, a copolymer matrix strategy for extending the processing window of highly drawn polypropylene fiber-based SRC was discussed. The application of CFRP and SRC as lightweight structural materials can provide potential options for improving the energy efficiency of future mobility.

Growth and Quality Characteristics of Korean Bread Wheat in Response to Elevated Temperature during their Growing Season (밀 재배기간 온도상승이 빵용 밀의 생육 및 품질 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Chuloh Cho;Han-yong Jeong;Yurim Kim;Jinhee Park;Kyeong-Hoon Kim;Kyeong-Min Kim;Chon-Sik Kang;Jong-Min Ko;Jiyoung Shon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.67 no.4
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    • pp.234-241
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    • 2022
  • Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major staple foods and is in increasing demand in the world. The elevated temperature caused by changes in climate and environmental conditions is a major factor affecting wheat development and grain quality. The optimal temperature range for winter wheat is between 15 and 25℃, and it is necessary to study the physiological characteristic of wheat according to elevated temperatures. This study presents the effect of elevated temperature on the yield and quality of two Korean bread wheat (Baekkang and Jokyoung) in temperature gradient tunnels (TGT). Two bread wheat cultivars were grown in TGT at four different temperature conditions: T0 (control, near ambient temperature), T1 (T0+1℃), T2 (T0+2℃), (T0+2℃), T3 (T0+3℃). The period from sowing to heading stage accelerated and the number of grains per spike and grain yield reduced under T3 condition compared with those under T0 condition. Grain filling rate and grain maturity also accelerated with elevated temperature (T3). The increase in temperature led to the increase in protein contents, whereas decreased the total starch contents. These results are consistent with the decreased expression of starch synthesis genes and increased gliadin synthesis or gluten metabolism genes during the late grain filling stage. Taken together, our results suggest that the increase in temperature (T3) led to the decrease in grain yield by regulating the number of grains/spike, whereas increased the protein content by regulating the expression of starch and gliadin-related genes or gluten metabolism process genes expression. In addition, our results provide a useful physiological information on the response of wheat to heat stress.