• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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A Framework Development for Sketched Data-Driven Building Information Model Creation to Support Efficient Space Configuration and Building Performance Analysis (효율적 공간 형상화 및 건물성능분석을 위한 스케치 정보 기반 BIM 모델 자동생성 프레임워크 개발)

  • Kong, ByungChan;Jeong, WoonSeong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.50-61
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    • 2024
  • The market for compact houses is growing due to the demand for floor plans prioritizing user needs. However, clients often have difficulty communicating their spatial requirements to professionals including architects because they lack the means to provide evidence, such as spatial configurations or cost estimates. This research aims to create a framework that can translate sketched data-driven spatial requirements into 3D building components in BIM models to facilitate spatial understanding and provide building performance analysis to aid in budgeting in the early design phase. The research process includes developing a process model, implementing, and validating the framework. The process model describes the data flow within the framework and identifies the required functionality. Implementation involves creating systems and user interfaces to integrate various systems. The validation verifies that the framework can automatically convert sketched space requirements into walls, floors, and roofs in a BIM model. The framework can also automatically calculate material and energy costs based on the BIM model. The developed frame enables clients to efficiently create 3D building components based on the sketched data and facilitates users to understand the space and analyze the building performance through the created BIM models.

A Study on Water Demand Forecasting Methods Applicable to Developing Country (개발도상국에 적용 가능한 물수요 예측 방법 연구)

  • Sung-Uk Kim;Kye-Won Jun;Wan-Seop Pi;Jong-Ho Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2023
  • Many developing countries face challenges in estimating long-term discharge due to the lack of hydrological data for water supply planning, making it difficult to establish a rational water supply plan for decision-making on water distribution. The study area, the Bandung region in Indonesia, is experiencing rapid urbanization and population concentration, leading to a severe shortage of freshwater. The absence of water reservoir prediction methods has resulted in a water supply rate of approximately 20%. In this study, we aimed to propose an approach for predicting water reservoirs in developing countries by analyzing water safety and potential water supply using the MODSIM (Modified SIMYLD) network model. To assess the suitability of the MODSIM model, we applied the unit hydrograph method to calculate long-term discharge based on 19 years of discharge data (2002-2020) from the Pataruman observation station. The analysis confirmed alignment with the existing monthly optimal operation curve. The analysis of power plant capacity revealed a difference of approximately 0.30% to 0.50%, and the water intake safety at the Pataruman point showed 1.64% for Q95% flow and 0.47% for Q355 flow higher. Operational efficiency, compared to the existing reservoir optimal operation curve, was measured at around 1%, confirming the potential of using the MODSIM network model for water supply evaluation and the need for water supply facilities.

A Study on Estimating Optimal Tonnage of Coastal Cargo Vessels in Korea (우리나라 연안화물선의 적정선복량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 이청환;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-53
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    • 1989
  • In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

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An Economic Factor Analysis of Air Pollutants Emission Using Index Decomposition Methods (대기오염 배출량 변화의 경제적 요인 분해)

  • Park, Dae Moon;Kim, Ki Heung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.167-199
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    • 2005
  • The following policy implications can be drawn from this study: 1) The Air Pollution Emission Amount Report published by the Ministry of Environment since 1991 classifies industries into 4 sectors, i. e., heating, manufacturing, transportation and power generation. Currently, the usability of report is very low and extra efforts should be given to refine the current statistics and to improve the industrial classification. 2) Big pollution industries are as follows - s7, s17 and s20. The current air pollution control policy for these sectors compared to other sectors are found to be inefficient. This finding should be noted in the implementation of future air pollution policy. 3) s10 and s17 are found to be a big polluting industrial sector and its pollution reduction effect is also significant. 4) The effect of emission coefficient (${\Delta}f$) has the biggest impact on the reduction of emission amount change and the effect of economic growth coefficient (${\Delta}y$) has the biggest impact on the increase of emission volume. The effect of production technology factor (${\Delta}D$) and the effect of the change of the final demand structure (${\Delta}u$) are insignificant in terms of the change of emission volume. 5) Further studies on emission estimation techniques on each industry sector and the economic analysis are required to promote effective enforcement of the total volume control system of air pollutants, the differential management of pollution causing industrial sectors and the integration of environment and economy. 6) Korea's economic growth in 1990 is not pollution-driven in terms of the Barry Commoner's hypothesis, even though the overall industrial structure and the demand structure are not environmentally friendly. It indicates that environmental policies for the improvement of air quality depend mainly on the government initiatives and systematic national level consideration of industrial structures and the development of green technologies are not fully incorporated.

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Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Nakdong River Using Machine Learning-Based Satellite Data and Water Quality, Hydrological, and Meteorological Factors (머신러닝 기반 위성영상과 수질·수문·기상 인자를 활용한 낙동강의 Chlorophyll-a 농도 추정)

  • Soryeon Park;Sanghun Son;Jaegu Bae;Doi Lee;Dongju Seo;Jinsoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2023
  • Algal bloom outbreaks are frequently reported around the world, and serious water pollution problems arise every year in Korea. It is necessary to protect the aquatic ecosystem through continuous management and rapid response. Many studies using satellite images are being conducted to estimate the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), an indicator of algal bloom occurrence. However, machine learning models have recently been used because it is difficult to accurately calculate Chl-a due to the spectral characteristics and atmospheric correction errors that change depending on the water system. It is necessary to consider the factors affecting algal bloom as well as the satellite spectral index. Therefore, this study constructed a dataset by considering water quality, hydrological and meteorological factors, and sentinel-2 images in combination. Representative ensemble models random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to predict the concentration of Chl-a in eight weirs located on the Nakdong river over the past five years. R-squared score (R2), root mean square errors (RMSE), and mean absolute errors (MAE) were used as model evaluation indicators, and it was confirmed that R2 of XGBoost was 0.80, RMSE was 6.612, and MAE was 4.457. Shapley additive expansion analysis showed that water quality factors, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, and the band ratio using red edge bands were of high importance in both models. Various input data were confirmed to help improve model performance, and it seems that it can be applied to domestic and international algal bloom detection.

Change Analysis of Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks According to the Land Cover Change Using Multi-Temporal Landsat TM Images and Machine Learning Algorithms (다시기 Landsat TM 영상과 기계학습을 이용한 토지피복변화에 따른 산림탄소저장량 변화 분석)

  • LEE, Jung-Hee;IM, Jung-Ho;KIM, Kyoung-Min;HEO, Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2015
  • The acceleration of global warming has required better understanding of carbon cycles over local and regional areas such as the Korean peninsula. Since forests serve as a carbon sink, which stores a large amount of terrestrial carbon, there has been a demand to accurately estimate such forest carbon sequestration. In Korea, the National Forest Inventory(NFI) has been used to estimate the forest carbon stocks based on the amount of growing stocks per hectare measured at sampled location. However, as such data are based on point(i.e., plot) measurements, it is difficult to identify spatial distribution of forest carbon stocks. This study focuses on urban areas, which have limited number of NFI samples and have shown rapid land cover change, to estimate grid-based forest carbon stocks based on UNFCCC Approach 3 and Tier 3. Land cover change and forest carbon stocks were estimated using Landsat 5 TM data acquired in 1991, 1992, 2010, and 2011, high resolution airborne images, and the 3rd, 5th~6th NFI data. Machine learning techniques(i.e., random forest and support vector machines/regression) were used for land cover change classification and forest carbon stock estimation. Forest carbon stocks were estimated using reflectance, band ratios, vegetation indices, and topographical indices. Results showed that 33.23tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the unchanged forest areas between 1991 and 2010, while 36.83 tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the areas changed from other land-use types to forests. A total of 7.35 tonC/ha of carbon was released on the areas changed from forests to other land-use types. This study was a good chance to understand the quantitative forest carbon stock change according to the land cover change. Moreover the result of this study can contribute to the effective forest management.

Estimation of Jaw and MLC Transmission Factor Obtained by the Auto-modeling Process in the Pinnacle3 Treatment Planning System (피나클치료계획시스템에서 자동모델화과정으로 얻은 Jaw와 다엽콜리메이터의 투과 계수 평가)

  • Hwang, Tae-Jin;Kang, Sei-Kwon;Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Park, So-Ah;Lee, Me-Yeon;Kim, Kyoung-Ju;Oh, Do-Hoon;Bae, Hoon-Sik;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.269-276
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    • 2009
  • Radiation treatment techniques using photon beam such as three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) as well as intensity modulated radiotherapy treatment (IMRT) demand accurate dose calculation in order to increase target coverage and spare healthy tissue. Both jaw collimator and multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) for photon beams have been used to achieve such goals. In the Pinnacle3 treatment planning system (TPS), which we are using in our clinics, a set of model parameters like jaw collimator transmission factor (JTF) and MLC transmission factor (MLCTF) are determined from the measured data because it is using a model-based photon dose algorithm. However, model parameters obtained by this auto-modeling process can be different from those by direct measurement, which can have a dosimetric effect on the dose distribution. In this paper we estimated JTF and MLCTF obtained by the auto-modeling process in the Pinnacle3 TPS. At first, we obtained JTF and MLCTF by direct measurement, which were the ratio of the output at the reference depth under the closed jaw collimator (MLCs for MLCTF) to that at the same depth with the field size $10{\times}10\;cm^2$ in the water phantom. And then JTF and MLCTF were also obtained by auto-modeling process. And we evaluated the dose difference through phantom and patient study in the 3D-CRT plan. For direct measurement, JTF was 0.001966 for 6 MV and 0.002971 for 10 MV, and MLCTF was 0.01657 for 6 MV and 0.01925 for 10 MV. On the other hand, for auto-modeling process, JTF was 0.001983 for 6 MV and 0.010431 for 10 MV, and MLCTF was 0.00188 for 6 MV and 0.00453 for 10 MV. JTF and MLCTF by direct measurement were very different from those by auto-modeling process and even more reasonable considering each beam quality of 6 MV and 10 MV. These different parameters affect the dose in the low-dose region. Since the wrong estimation of JTF and MLCTF can lead some dosimetric error, comparison of direct measurement and auto-modeling of JTF and MLCTF would be helpful during the beam commissioning.

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Valuation of the Water Pollution Reduction: An Application of the Imaginary Emission Market Concept (수질오염물질 감소의 편익 추정 -수질총량제하 가상배출권시장 개념의 적용-)

  • Han, Tak-Whan;Lee, Hyo Chang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.719-746
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    • 2014
  • This study attempts to estimate the value of the water quality improvement by deriving the equilibrium price of the water pollutant emission permit for the imaginary water pollutant emission trading market. It is reasonable to say that there is already an implicit social agreement for the unit value of water pollutant, when the government set the Total Water Pollutant Loading System for the major river basin as a part of the Comprehensive Measures for Water Management, particularly for the Nakdong River Basin. Therefore, we can derive the unit value of water pollutant emission, which is already implied in the pollution allowance for each city or county by the Total Water Pollutant Loading System. Once estimated, it will be useful to the economic assessment of the water quality related projects. An imaginary water pollutant emission trading system for the Nakdong River Basin, where Total Water Pollutant Loading System is already effective, is constructed for the estimation of the equilibrium price of water pollutant permit. By estimating marginal abatement cost curve or each city or county, we can compute the equilibrium price of the permit and then it is regarded as the economic value of the water pollutant. The marginal net benefit function results from the relationship between the emission and the benefit, and then the equilibrium price of permit comes from constructing the excess demand function of the permit by using the total allowable permit of the local government entity. The equilibrium price of the permit would be estimated to be $1,409.3won/kg{\cdot}BOD$. This is within reasonable boundary compared for the permit price compared to foreign example. This permit price would be applied to calculate for the economic value of the water quality pollutants, and also be expected to use directly for the B/C analysis of the business involved with water quality change.

Estimation of Stem Taper Equations and Stem Volume Table for Phyllostachys pubescens Mazel in South Korea (맹종죽의 수간곡선식 및 수간재적표 추정)

  • Eun-Ji, Bae;Yeong-Mo, Son;Jin-Taek, Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.622-629
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    • 2022
  • The study aim was to derive a stem taper equation for Phyllostachys pubescens, a type of bamboo in South Korea, and to develop a stem volume table. To derive the stem taper equation, three stem taper models (Max & Burkhart, Kozak, and Lee) were used. Since bamboo stalks are hollow because of its woody characteristics, the outer and inner diameters of the tree were calculated, and connecting them enabled estimating the tree curves. The results of the three equations for estimating the outer and inner diameters led to selection of the Kozak model for determining the optimal stem taper because it had the highest fitness index and lowest error and bias. We used the Kozak model to estimate the diameter of Phyllostachys pubescens by stem height, which proved optimal, and drew the stem curve. After checking the residual degree in the stem taper equation, all residuals were distributed around "0", which proved the suitability of the equation. To calculate the stem volume of Phyllostachys pubescens, a rotating cube was created by rotating the stem curve with the outer diameter at 360°, and the volume was calculated by applying Smalian's method. The volume of Phyllostachys pubescens was calculated by deducting the inner diameter calculated volume from the outer diameter calculated volume. The volume of Phyllostachys pubescens was only 20~30% of the volume of Larix kaempferi, which is a general species. However, considering the current trees/ha of Phyllostachys pubescens and the amount of bamboo shoots generated every year, the individual tree volume was predicted to be small, but the volume/ha was not very different or perhaps more. The significance of this study is the stem taper equation and stem volume table for Phyllostachys pubescens developed for the first time in South Korea. The results are expected to be used as basic data for bamboo trading that is in increasing public and industrial demand and carbon absorption estimation.

Estimation of the CY Area Required for Each Container Handling System in Mokpo New Port (목표 신항만의 터미널 운영시스템에 따른 CY 소요면적 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Keum, J.S.
    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 1998
  • The CY can be said to function in various respect as a buffer zone between the maritime and overland inflow-outflow of container. The amount of storage area needed requires a very critical appraisal at pre-operational stage. A container terminal should be designed to handle and store containers in the most efficient and economic way possible. In order to achieve this aim it is necessary to figure out or forecast numbers and types of containers to be handled, CY area required, and internal handling systems to be adopted. This paper aims to calculate the CY area required for each container handling system in Mokpo New Port. The CY area required are directly dependent on the equipment being used and the storage demand. And also the CY area required depends on the dwell time. Furthermore, containers need to be segregated by destination, weight, class, FCL(full container load), LCL(less than container load), direction of travel, and sometimes by type and often by shipping line or service. Thus the full use of a storage area is not always possible as major unbalances and fluctuations in these flow occuring all the time. The calculating CY area must therefore be taken into account in terms of these operational factors. For solving such problem, all these factors have been applied to estimation of CY area in Mokpo New Port. The CY area required in Mokpo New Port was summarized in the conclusion section.

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