• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1407-1415
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• 2008

Recently, there has been growing interest in Gyongin Line demand estimation, because SMRT(Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Corporation) Line 7 will be extended west by 9.8km from Onsu to meet the Gyongin Line at Bupyeong-gu Office. This study was designed to estimate the change of traffic demand in Gyongin Line before and after the completion year 2011, also provide against the economic loss caused by the derived demand from Gyongin Line to SMRT Line 7. In this paper we give preliminary results for the strategic plans for traffic demand estimation and train operating plan in Gyongin Line by analyzing transport performance of Seoul metropolitan subway, and an additional study on the transportation market and the urban development plan is needed for more accurate results.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.343-355
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• 2023

Dairy processing experience tourism, that combines production, processing, and services, can be a good alternative to increase added value in Mongolian livestock industry. In addition, in order to successfully pursue this, it is necessary to first identify consumers' potential demand for the experience tourism and the factors affecting demand. Accordingly, this study estimated consumers' potential demand for dairy processing experience tourism using data from 758 people obtained through an online survey targeting Ulaanbaatar residents. As a result of the estimation, it was found that the variables that affect potential demand are the experience fees, average monthly household income, gender, age, arol consumption, and education level. The potential demand for dairy processing experience tourism was measured by multiplying the population of Ulaanbaatar by the estimated probability of accepting the experience tourism, and the total revenue was maximum at 32.303 million Tuk when the experience fee was 50,000 Tuk. The implications based on the analysis results are that, in order to promote participation in the experience tourism, it is necessary to promote it primarily to people with high average monthly household income, high level of education, younger age groups, and male. It can be said that preference is high and sufficient potential demand exists, but it is suggested that appropriate setting of experience fees is important.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.81-88
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• 2008

This paper presents the travel demand estimation using interval estimation methods during the trip generation stage, and then followed the other three stages of the four stage trip estimation. We have used real data of Dae-jun City. To estimate travel demand using the interval estimation method, a reliability level was set to 95% by a upper bound value, a middle value and a lower bound value. The four stage traffic demand analysis procedure was equally applied and finally interval traffic was estimated. The result showed a difference between maximum values and middle values depending on the destination during the trip generation stage. It depends on an explanation ability of regression analysis. Most of interval estimation ratio resulted in the traffic assignment stage showed ${\pm}5{\sim}18%$ difference on the average and ${\pm}30{\sim}50%$ at the most.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.29 no.5 s.106
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• pp.441-450
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• 2004

This study was performed to estimate mid and long term demands of a tractor, a rice transplanter, a combine and a grain dryer by using logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Field survey was done to decide some parameters far logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Ceiling values of tractor and combine fer logistic curve function analysis were 209,280 and 85,607 respectively. Based on logistic curve function analysis, total number of tractors increased slightly during the period analysed. New demand for combine was found to be zero. Markov chain analysis was carried out with 2 scenarios. With the scenario 1(rice price $10\%$ down and current supporting policy by government), new demand for tractor was decreased gradually up to 700 unit in the year 2012. For combine, new demand was zero. Regardless of scenarios, the replacement demand was increased slightly after 2003. After then, the replacement demand is decreased after the certain time. Two analysis of logistic owe function and Markov chain model showed the similar trend in increase and decrease for total number of tractors and combines. However, the difference in numbers of tractors and combines between the results from 2 analysis got bigger as the time passed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.11
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• pp.939-949
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• 2020

Currently, the demand for farmland is steadily decreasing due to changes in the agricultural environment and dietary life. In line with this, the government adopted an integrated water management with the enactment of the Framework Act on Water Management on June 2019. Therefore, it is required to take a closer look at agricultural water demand that accounts for 61% of water use for efficient water resources management. In this study, the overal process was evaluated for estimating agricultural water demand. More specifically, agricultural water demand for paddy field, which comprises 67% to 87% of agricultural water demand, was reviewed in detail. The biggest issue in estimating the paddy field water demand is the selection of the method for potential evapotranspiration. FAO recommends Penman-Monteith, but, currently, our criteria suggest a modified Penman equation that shows over estimation. Also, the crop coefficient, which is the main factor in evaluating evapotranspiration, has an issue that does not consider the current climate and crop varieties because it was developed 23 years ago. Comparing the Modified Penman and Penman-Monteith equations using the data from Jeonju National Weather Service, the modified Penman equation showed a big difference compared to the Penman-Monteith equation. When the crop coefficient was applied, the difference between late May and late August increased, where the amount of evapotranspiration was high. The estimation process was applied to four study reservoirs in Gimje. Comparing the estimated water demand with the supplied water record from reservoirs, the results showed that the estimation accuracy depends on not just the potential evapotranspiration, but also the standard water storing level in paddy fields.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.287-313
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• 2018

This paper measures and analyzes cooling and heating demand in Korean electricity demand using time-varying temperature response functions and cooling and heating temperature effects. We fit the model to Korean data for residential and commercial sector over 1999:01~2016:12 and the estimation results show that the growth rate of heating demand is much higher than that of base and cooling demand, and especially the growth rate of heating demand in commercial sector is much higher. And we define the temperature-normalized demand conditioning that monthly temperatures are assumed as average monthly temperatures. The growth rate of heating demand in the estimated temperature-normalized demand is higher than that in the real demand. Our results are expected to be a base data for Winter Demand Management and short-term electricity demand forecasting.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.324-329
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• 2018

As the environment of power systems changes, the demand and necessity for new electrical energy market are increasing. Especially, efforts to increase the efficiency of electric energy use by using demand response programs are being studied constantly in advanced countries and it is operated as a real market. This paper presents a study on the baseline load estimation required in the new power market, such as demand response, P2P electricity trading etc. The proposed method estimates the baeline load through analysis of the load pattern and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method using actual data.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.143-150
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• 1996

The ductility demand for seismic design of a single degree of structure or an individual structural member can be determined easily. However, there is no established method to determine the ductility demand far a structural system. The object of this paper is to develop a method for the estimation of the ductility demand far structural systems, in which the inelastic behavior can be taken into account properly. The validity of the proposed method has been examined far several cases with different structures and different earthquake excitations. The method is also compared with two alternative methods.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.35-41
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• 1985

The objective of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for telephone use in Korea. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the existing empirical study and establishes the econometric demand estimation model applicable to Korean telephone service. By this model, the price elasticities of demand in local and toll uses are estimated and their implications are discussed.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.201-217
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• 2015

In this paper, we report computational testing result to examine the validity of firm's bankruptcy risk estimation through quantification of supply chain risk. Supply chain risk in this study refers to upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk, To assess the firm's risk affected by supply chain risk, we adopt unit of analysis as industry level. since supply and demand relationships of the firm could be generalized by the industry input-output table and the availability of various valid economic indicators which are chronologically calculated. The research model to estimate firm's risk level is the linear regression model to assess the industry bankruptcy risk estimation of the focal firm's industry with the independent variables which could quantitatively reflect demand and supply risk of the industry. The publicly announced macro economic indicators are selected as the candidate independent variables and validated through empirical testing. To validate our approach, in this paper, we confined our research scope to steel industry sector and its related industry sectors, and implemented the research model. The empirical testing results provide useful insights to further refine the research model as the valid forecasting mechanism to capture firm's future risk estimation more accurately by adopting supply chain industry risk aspect, in conjunction with firm's financial and other managerial factors.