• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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Estimation of the Minimum Transportation Demand for LRT Project (경량전철 사업시행을 위한 최소 수송수요 추정연구)

  • Kim Hyun-Woong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.884-888
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    • 2005
  • The interests of the government and civil business owner against the Light rail transit are increasing, it may be caused by the enterprise conception which does not consider a city circumstance that the construction plan is insensitively performed. This article present the forecast method of minimum transportation demand which secures a profitability. If It is in advance investigated the number of passenger using the existing traffic system of the area, it will be possible that the LRT project is planned on a realistic basis.

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Current Status of the Feeder Demand Factor in Small Size Apartments (중소형 아파트에서의 전력간선 부하 실태)

  • Lee, Ki-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.116-118
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    • 2004
  • This paper gives a measurement data of the feeder demand factor in small size apartments. The power load measurement data of the feeder shows that the feeders have $10{\sim}30[%]$ margin in capacity. But this margin is not enough to keep up with the trend of power consumption increase from long term standpoint. So it is necessary to measure the feeder power load periodically for the purpose of optimal feeder capacity estimation

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Estimating Travel Demand by Using a Spatial-Temporal Activity Presence-Based Approach (시.공간 활동인구 추정에 의한 통행수요 예측)

  • Eom, Jin-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2008
  • The conventional four-step travel demand model is still widely used as the state-of-practice in most transportation planning agencies even though it does not provide reliable estimates of travel demand. In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand estimation, implementing an alternative approach would be critical as much as acquiring reliable socioeconomic and travel data. Recently, the role of travel demand model is diverse to satisfy the needs of microscopic analysis regarding various policies of travel demand management and traffic operations. In this context, the activity-based approach for travel demand estimation is introduced and a case study of developing a spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach that estimates travel demand through forecasting number of people present at certain place and time is accomplished. Results show that the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach provides reliable estimates of both number of people present and trips actually people made. It is expected that the proposed approach will provide better estimates and be used in not only long-term transport plans but short-term transport impact studies with respect to various transport policies. Finally, in order to introduce the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach, the data such as activity-based travel diary and land use based on geographic information system are essential.

Estimation of the Reliability of Water Distribution Systems using HSPDA Model and ADF Index (HSPDA 모형 및 ADF index를 이용한 상수관망의 신뢰도 산정)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2010
  • In this study, new methodology to estimate the reliability of a water distribution system using HSPDA model is suggested. In general, the reliability of a water distribution system can be determined by estimating either the ratio of the required demand to the available demand or the ratio of the number of nodes with sufficient pressure head to the number of nodes with insufficient pressure head when the abnormal operating condition occurs. To perform this approach, hydraulic analysis under the abnormal operating condition is essential. However, if the Demand-Driven Analysis (DDA) which is dependant on the assumption that the required demand at a demand node is always satisfied regardless of actual nodal pressure head is used to estimate the reliability of a water distribution system, the reliability may be underestimated due to the defect of the DDA. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the Pressure-Driven Analysis (PDA) having a different assumption to the DDA's which is that available nodal demand is proportion to nodal pressure head. However, because previous study used a semi-PDA model and the PDA model which had limited applicability depending on the characteristics of a network, proper estimation of the reliability of a water distribution system was impossible. Thus, in this study, a new methodology is suggested by using HSPDA model which can overcome weak points of existing PDA model and Available Demand Fraction (ADF) index to estimate the reliability. The HSPDA can simulate the hydraulic condition of a water distribution system under abnormal operating condition and based on the hydraulic condition simulated, ADF index at each node is calculated to quantify the reliability of a water distribution system. The suggested model is applied to sample networks and the results are compared with those of existing method to demonstrate its applicability.

A Study on Inaccuracy in Urban Railway Ridership Estimation (도시철도 교통량 추정의 오차발생 요인 연구)

  • Kim, Kang-Soo;Kim, Ki Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2014
  • This paper analyzes the forecasting errors of traffic volumes by comparing forecasted volumes for the opening year with the observed ones in the years after the urban railway construction in the metropolitan areas. The result shows that the average inaccuracy of traffic volumes for each station was estimated at around 7.27. Based on the confirmed factors of demand estimation errors, this study seeks for an alternative method to reduce estimation errors in feasibility studies. It is noted that there is a tendency that the inaccuracy varies by regions and the longer construction period or the shorter station spacing is, the overestimation increases. If urban railway projects are proceeded as planed, therefore, the level of the inaccuracy for traffic volume forecast will be decreased. In addition, thanks to the theoretical progress, recent estimation results show higher accuracy than before. In that sense, when we introduce the new railway line, it is necessary to make an accurate and realistic demand forecast based on actual outcomes and tendency of the previous estimation. The limitation of our study is that we only cover the errors of the initial period, the opening year and deal with the exogenous variables. Further research including other variables which might be considered to cause overestimation or errors would be needed for increasing the estimation accuracy of traffic volumes.

Development of A Estimation Method of Traffic Demand Between ICs and An Algorithm for Providing Traffic Information (고속도로 IC간 교통수요 추정과 이를 통한 교통정보 제공 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Jun;Cho, Han-Seon;Kwon, Young-In
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2011
  • The objective of VMS(Variable Message Sign) is to provide the traffic information downstream to drivers upstream so that they can choose their routes or expect the travel time to arrive the destination. Because there is not enough time and space to show the message, VMS message should be selected carefully. However, the message of VMS has been simply selected among the pre-designed message sets based on the priority rule of events. If the traffic demand between origin and destination is identified along the freeway, message can be selected to provide the information of a route that more drivers will use. In this study, a time sliced OD(Origin/Destination) estimation method will be developed using the detector information of the on-ramp, exit ramp, and the main lanes. And the strategy of a priority rule of message was planned.

Fast Game Encoder Based on Scene Descriptor for Gaming-on-Demand Service (주문형 게임 서비스를 위한 장면 기술자 기반 고속 게임 부호화기)

  • Jeon, Chan-Woong;Jo, Hyun-Ho;Sim, Dong-Gyu
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.849-857
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    • 2011
  • Gaming on demand(GOD) makes people enjoy games by encoding and transmitting game screen at a server side, and decoding the video at a client side. In this paper, we propose a fast game video encoder for multiple users over network with low-powered devices. In the proposed system, the computational complexity of game encoders is reduced by using scene descriptors, which consists of an object motion vector, global motion, and scene change. With additional information from game engines, the proposed encoder does not need to perform various complexity processes such as motion estimation and ratedistortion optimization. The motion estimation and rate-distortion optimization skipped by scene descriptors. We found that the proposed method improved 192 % in terms of FPS, compared with x264 software. With partial assembly code, we also improved coding speed by 86 % in terms of FPS. We found that the proposed fast encoder could encode over 60 FPS for real-time GOD applications.

Development of Greenhouse Gas Estimation Method for a Local Government Level Using Traffic Demand Model

  • Maurillo, Pennie Rose Anne R.;Jung, Hyeon-Ji;Lee, Seon-Ha;Ha, Dong-Ik
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2013
  • Greenhouse gas emissions have been an important issue in different countries because of their effects on global warming. The government has to organize greenhouse gas reduction measures suitable to regional characteristics by establishing annual implementation plans and comprehensive policies based on the UNFCCC. The transportation sector is one of the major contributors of air pollution; hence increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions precisely. Under these circumstances, a number of emission models have been developed recently. However, current methods of estimation cannot carry out effective analyses because it does not reflect vehicle movement characteristics. This study aims to present a new method for calculating road traffic emissions in Goyang city. A travel demand model is utilized to carry out GHG emission estimates according the traffic data (fleet composition, vehicle kilometers travelled, traffic intensity, road type, emission factors and speed). This study evaluates two approaches to estimate the road traffic emissions in Goyang City: Pollution-Emis and the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1) which is representative of the "average speed" and the "traffic situation" model types. The evaluation of results shows that the proposed emission estimation method may be a good practice if vigilant implementation of model inputs is observed.

Estimation of earthquake induced story hysteretic energy of multi-Story buildings

  • Wang, Feng;Zhang, Ning;Huang, Zhiyu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2016
  • The goal of energy-based seismic design is to obtain a structural design with a higher energy dissipation capacity than the energy dissipation demands incurred under earthquake motions. Accurate estimation of the story hysteretic energy demand of a multi-story structure is the key to meeting this goal. Based on the assumption of a mode-equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system, the energy equilibrium relationship of a multi-story structure under seismic action is transformed into that of a multi-mode analysis of several single degree-of-freedom systems. A simplified equation for the estimation of the story seismic hysteretic energy demand was then derived according to the story shear force and deformation of multi-story buildings, and the deformation and energy relationships between the mode-equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system and the original structure. Sites were categorized into three types based on soil hardness, namely, hard soil, intermediate hard (soft) soil, and soft soil. For each site type, a 5-story and 10-story reinforced concrete frame structure were designed and employed as calculation examples. Fifty-six earthquake acceleration records were used as horizontal excitations to validate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results verify the following. (1) The distribution of seismic hysteretic energy along the stories demonstrate a degree of regularity. (2) For the low rise buildings, use of only the first mode shape provides reasonably accurate results, whereas, for the medium or high rise buildings, several mode shapes should be included and superposed to achieve high precision. (3) The estimated hysteretic energy distribution of bottom stories tends to be underestimated, which should be modified in actual applications.