• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.81-93
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• 2005

This paper models supply chain uncertainties in the dynamic Newsboy Problem context. The system consists of one supplier and one retailer who place an order to the supplier every period. Demand uncertainty is modeled as stochastic period demand, and supply uncertainty as the uncertainty in quantities delivered by the supplier. The supplier delivers exactly the amount ordered by the retailer with probability of $\beta$ and the amount minus K with probability of $(1-\beta)$ We formulate the problem as a dynamic programming problem and derive the first-order optimality condition. Through a numerical study, we measure the extent to which the cost decrease due to the reduction in supply uncertainty depends on the level of demand uncertainty. One of the most important findings In this paper is that this cost decrease is relatively small if demand uncertainty is kept high, and vice versa. We also backup this numerical result by analyzing the distribution of ending Inventory under the supply and demand uncertainties.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.11
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• pp.797-803
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• 2011

In this study, we developed the assessment method that evaluate the water demand management and calculate the water saving volume using water use indicator, and developed the system to link the water saving volume that occur through demand management and water supply and demand. The results from this study, local governments with poor water conditions should be followed to improve the water supply. And, future water demand estimates should be even considering it. We calculated the water saving volume of the Geum River basin using K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation And Planning System) and performed the water budget analysis. We found that the change of river flow, ground water level and reservoir water level, and it can be utilized for other demand.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.97-109
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• 2014

This paper considers a reverse supply chain with simultaneous recovery of used products and manufacturing of brand-new ones. Recovered products are downgraded and have to be sold in a market different from that of brand-new products at a different price. In case of a shortage of recovered product inventory, a brand-new item, if available, can be offered at the price of a recovered product. In other words, one-way demand substitution is allowed. We address the joint decision of when to manufacture brand-new product, when to recover returned product, and how to control demand substitution to maximize the hybrid production system's profits. To this end, we propose a Markov decision Process model and investigate the structure of the optimal policy. Performance comparison is numerically implemented between the models with and without downward demand substitution option under different operating conditions of the system parameters.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

Hierarchical forecasting strategy does not always outperform direct forecasting strategy. The performance generally depends on demand features. This research guides the use of the alternative forecasting strategies according to demand features. This paper developed and evaluated various classification models such as logistic regression (LR), artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees (DT), boosted trees (BT), and random forests (RF) for predicting the relative performance of the alternative forecasting strategies for the South Korean navy's spare parts demand which has non-normal characteristics. ANN minimized classification errors and inventory costs, whereas LR minimized the Brier scores and the sum of forecasting errors.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.789-795
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• 2014

In a demand response (DR) market run by independent system operators (ISOs), load aggregators are important market participants who aggregate small retail customers through various DR programs. A load aggregator can minimize the allocation cost by efficiently allocating its demand response resources (DRRs) considering retail customers' characteristics. However, the uncertain response behaviors of retail customers can influence the allocation strategy of its DRRs, increasing the economic risk of DRR allocation. This paper presents a risk-based DRR allocation method for the load aggregator that takes into account not only the physical characteristics of retail customers but also the risk due to the associated response uncertainties. In the paper, a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is applied to deal with the risk due to response uncertainties. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.639-649
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• 2013

Over 96.2% of the agricultural water in Jeju Island is obtained from groundwater and there are quite distinct characteristics of agricultural water demand/supply spatially because of regional and seasonal differences in cropping system and rainfall amount. Land use for cultivating crops is expected to decrease 7.4% (4,215 ha) in 2020 compared to 2010, while market garden including various vegetable crop types having high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially western area having lower rainfall amount compared to southern area. On the other hand, land use for fruit including citrus and mandarin having low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall amount. The agricultural water demand of $1,214{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2020 is estimated about 1.39 times compared to groundwater supply capacity of $874{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2010 with 42.4% of eastern, 103.1% of western, 61.9% of southern, and 77.0% of northern region. Moreover, net secured amount of agricultural groundwater would be expected to be much smaller due to regional disparity of water demand/supply, the lack of linkage system between the agricultural water supply facilities, and high percentage of private wells. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the total net secured amount of agricultural groundwater to overcome the expected regional discrepancy of water demand and supply by establishing policy alternative of regional water supply plan over the Island, including linkage system between wells, water tank enlargement, private wells maintenance and public wells development, and continuous enlargement of rainwater utilization facilities.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.185-190
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• 1993

In this paper, we investigate the effect of production uncertainty - especially demand fluctuation and activity time variation, to production control policies. First, we examine three famous production control policies, namely, MRP, JIT, OPT, from shop floor control perspective and analyze the difference among them. Based on these, simulation studies are performed to draw out the effects of demand fluctuation which are classified into demand lumpiness and demand irregularity, and, the effects of activity time variation which are classified into standard time variation and non-standard time variation. Experimental investigation shows that, in terms of demand fluctuations, MRP is affected by demand lumpiness, but JIT by demand irregularity. And we also see that both MRP and JIT are influenced by standard time variation with respect to activity time variations.

• The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.77-86
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• 2002

The purposes of this research which was conducted by surveying lost/added unit hours reports, unit hour demand analysis worksheets from prehospital care reports of two squads in Kyonggi Provincial Fire and Disaster Headquarters for 20 weeks (January 1, 2002 - May 20, 2002) are to get Unit Hour Utilizations. Call Demands such as Unit Hour Demand, Simple Average Demand, High Average Demand, Peak Average Demand, the High Actual Demand. The conclusions from this analysis were summarized as follows: (1) By revealing Unit Hour Produced 3223.9, Call Volume 964, Unit Hour Utilization 0.299 at the Squad A and Unit Hour Produced 3328.4, Call Volume 901, Unit Hour Utilization 0.271 at the Squad B induced Korean Squads to chance identification, definition, direction of Unit Hour Utilization. (2) By revealing Simple Average Demand 7.4 on Monday Tuesday, High Average Demand 9.6 on Tuesday Friday. Peak Average Demand 11.5 on Tuesday, the High Actual Demand 12 on Tuesday Wednesday at the Squad A and Simple Average Demand 6.8 on Sunday, High Average Demand 10.4 on Monday, Peak Average Demand 11.5 on Monday, the High Actual Demand 13 on Monday at the Squad B enabled Korean Squads to utilize System Status Management. (3) The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 115 for 23:00~23:59, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 46 for 05:00~05:49 in two squads. The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 7.4 on Tuesday Saturday, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 6.1 on Thursday at the Squad A. The Maximum Calls per Unit Hour were 7.3 on Monday Saturday, the Minimum Calls per Unit Hour were 5.6 on Thursday at the Squad B. (4) Analyzing demand for EMTs in the optimum emergency medical service of Korea, we have been able to utilize this Unit Hour Utilization in company with the established estimation methods such as international comparisons or the number of ambulances for scientific reasonable estimation. (5) These Call Demands which were limited to the demand time in this study will make us expect some following studies including demand time, demand time, demand map for Strategic Deployment.

• Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.245-253
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• 2014

Purpose: School foodservice employees (SFEs) could be exposed to the risk of musculoskeletal disease and of job stress due to their job characteristics. This study was to evaluate the level of job stress and the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal symptoms (WRMS) in Seoul city's SFEs, and to determine associations between job stress and WRMS. Methods: The study design was cross-sectional, and 975 SFEs were recruited. Self-administered questionnaire included the 'Korean occupational stress scale-short form' and the 'KOSHA GUIDE H-9-2012' instrument to evaluate the job stress and WRMS, respectively. SFEs' medians of job stress were compared to the reference values of published study in Korean workers. Results: The participants reported greater levels of job demand and physical environment than the general Korean population. WRMS were reported in 89.0% of participants at any body part, and 41.1% were presumed to need for medical intervention. High levels of job demand and of physical environment were significantly associated with WRMS. Conclusion: Subscales of job demand and physical environment were relatively high in SFEs and those were related to the occurrence of WRMS. To reduce the WRMS prevalence, a job stress management program focused on job demand and physical environment may be required.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.171-185
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• 2017

Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.