• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Projection

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Development of an Adaptive Capacity Indicator to Climate Change in the Agricultural Water Sector (농업용수의 기후변화 적응능력 지표 개발 - 가뭄에 대한 적응을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Ga-Young;Kim, Jin-Teak;Kim, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2008
  • Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step to take when setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. Adaptive capacity to climate change is the important factor comprising vulnerability. An adaptive capacity index in agricultural water management system was developed considering agricultural water supply and demand for rice production in Jeolla-do, Korea. The agricultural water supply was assumed to be equal to the amount of water stored in the major agricultural reservoirs, while data on the agricultural water demand was obtained from the dynamic simulation results by Korea Agriculture Corporation(KAC). The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county(Si, Gun, Gu) level and temporal scale was based on every month from 1991-2003. Adaptive capacity for drought stress index(ACDS index) was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS index was compared with SWSCI(Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit($R^2$=0.84) using the exponential function, indicating that the developed ACDS index is useful for evaluating the status of the balance between agricultural water supply and demand, especially for the small sized agricultural reservoirs. This study provided the methodological basis for developing climate change vulnerability index in agricultural water system which is projected to be more frequently exposed to drought condition in the future due to climate change. Further research should be extended to the study on the water demand of the crops other than rice and to the projection of the change in ACDS index in the future.

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Accurate and efficient GPU ray-casting algorithm for volume rendering of unstructured grid data

  • Gu, Gibeom;Kim, Duksu
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.608-618
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    • 2020
  • We present a novel GPU-based ray-casting algorithm for volume rendering of unstructured grid data. Our volume rendering system uses a ray-casting method that guarantees accurate rendering results. We also employ the per-pixel intersection list concept in the Bunyk algorithm to guarantee an accurate result for non-convex meshes. For efficient memory access for the lists on the GPU, we represent the intersection lists for all faces as an array with our novel construction algorithm. With the intersection lists, we perform ray-casting on a GPU, and a GPU thread handles each ray. To increase ray-coherency in a thread block and improve memory access efficiency, we extend a prior image-tile-based work distribution method to fit modern GPU architectures. We also show that a prior approach using a per-thread local buffer to reduce redundant computation is not appropriate for modern GPU architectures. Instead, we take an on-demand calculation strategy that achieves better performance even though it allows duplicate computations. We applied our method to three unstructured grid datasets with different characteristics. With a GPU, our method achieved up to 36.5 times higher performance for the ray-casting process and 19.7 times higher performance for the whole volume rendering process compared with the Bunyk algorithm using a CPU core. Also, our approach showed up to 8.2 times higher performance than a GPU-based cell projection method while generating more accurate rendering results. These results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of our method.

Potential Impacts and Energy Cost of Grid-Connected Plug-in Electric Vehicles (전력망 충전식 전기자동차의 영향 및 에너지비용)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Ho;Han, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2010
  • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle(PHEV) is a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) with more added battery capacity that can be recharged from the electric power grid. Plug-in battery electric vehicle(PBEV) is a pure electric vehicle that uses only electric motor using electricity from battery that recharged from the power grid. PHEV and PBEV requires recharging of batteries in the vehicles from electric power grid. Recently, PHEVs and PBEV are being developed around the world. It is important to understand how these electric vehicles affect power demands and carbon dioxide emissions. From vehicle customer viewpoint, running energy cost will be imporatnt factor to consider. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs and PBEVs on electric power demand, and associated CO2 emissions in 2020 with an projection that the vehicles will be penetrated with 10% market share. Energy costs for the vehicles are also calculated and compared with the conventional combustion vehicle.

Projection of Consumptive Use and Irrigation Water for Major Upland Crops using Soil Moisture Model under Climate Change (토양수분모형을 이용한 미래 주요 밭작물 소비수량 및 관개용수량 전망)

  • Nam, Won Ho;Hong, Eun Mi;Jang, Min Won;Choi, Jin Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2014
  • The impacts of climate change on upland crops is great significance for water resource planning, estimating crop water demand and irrigation scheduling. The objective of this study is to predict upland crop evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and net irrigation requirement for upland under climate change, and changes in the temporal trends in South Korea. The changes in consumptive use and net irrigation requirement in the six upland crops, such as Soybeans, Maize, Potatoes, Red Peppers, Chinese Cabbage (spring and fall) were determined based on the soil moisture model using historical meteorological data and climate change data from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results of this study showed that the average annual upland crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirement during the growing period for upland crops would increase persistently in the future, and were projected to increase more in RCP 8.5 than those in RCP 4.5 scenario, while effective rainfall decreased. This study is significant, as it provides baseline information on future plan of water resources management for upland crops related to climate variability and change.

Hotelling T2 Index Based PCA Method for Fault Detection in Transient State Processes (과도상태에서의 고장검출을 위한 Hotelling T2 Index 기반의 PCA 기법)

  • Asghar, Furqan;Talha, Muhammad;Kim, Se-Yoon;Kim, SungHo
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.276-280
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    • 2016
  • Due to the increasing interest in safety and consistent product quality over a past few decades, demand for effective quality monitoring and safe operation in the modern industry has propelled research into statistical based fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper describes the application of Hotelling $T^2$ index based Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for fault detection and diagnosis in industrial processes. Multivariate statistical process control techniques are now widely used for performance monitoring and fault detection. Conventional methods such as PCA are suitable only for steady state processes. These conventional projection methods causes false alarms or missing data for the systems with transient values of processes. These issues significantly compromise the reliability of the monitoring systems. In this paper, a reliable method is used to overcome false alarms occur due to varying process conditions and missing data problems in transient states. This monitoring method is implemented and validated experimentally along with matlab. Experimental results proved the credibility of this fault detection method for both the steady state and transient operations.

A Study of Integrated Digital Signage Management System Implementation (Digital Signage 통합관리시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hee-Yong;Lee, Jina;Shin, Yong-Tae;Kim, Jong-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.82-85
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    • 2014
  • With high speed communication network and supplement of high quality multimedia devices, large demand of multimedia service stimulates digital signing industry to step forward to new opportunities. But in order to provide competitive quality services, Integrated management system is required. Digital signs use technologies such as LCD, LED and Projection to display content such as digital images, video, streaming media, and information. Digital signs rely on a variety of hardware to deliver the contents. The components of a typical digital sign installation include one or more display screens, one or more media players, and a content management server for each player. To improve the existing high cost and less efficient management system, this paper suggest cost effective Integrated Digital Signage Management System with the results of analysis of existing system. Also this paper presents an actual implementation on entertainment company to evaluate the suitability, to prove the result of superior performance of proposed system.

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How to Maintain the Financial Stability and Adequacy of Teachers Pension (사학연금의 재정안정화와 적정성 유지 방안)

  • Park, Yousung;Jeong, Min-Yeol;Jeon, Saebom
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.643-661
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    • 2015
  • Korea Teachers Pension (private school pension) is a mandatory pension and a social security system for private school teachers to ensure the stability of subscribers by a supplying pension when they (and their dependents) face future economic risk due to retirement or death. Therefore, the Teachers Pension must provide stability and sustainability in regards to adequacy of income and to function as a pension. However, the Government Employees Pension System (GEPS) of Korea (the most representative special occupation pension) recorded a fiscal deficit in 2001 and with an accumulated deficit that is expected to grow; subsequently, various plans for the reform of GEPS have been actively discussed. The Korea Teachers Pension system is based on the GEPS scheme and is not free from the GEPS discussions on reforms of national pension. The current system for the Teachers Pension needs to be improved because it is expected to be depleted within the next 30 years due to low fertility and an aging population in Korea. This study discusses existing Teachers Pension schemes problems and suggests a projection method and revised plans to improve it. We use long-term financial projections of the Teachers Pension to estimate the fund exhaustion point and the minus balance of the financial scale as well as analyze the supply-demand burden structure that reflects the future population structure to propose Teachers Pension reforms that will improve stability and adequacy.

Current Status and Projection of Spent Nuclear Fuel for Geological Disposal System Design (심지층 처분시스템 설계를 위한 사용후핵연료 현황 분석 및 예측)

  • Cho, Dong-Keun;Choi, Jong-Won;Hahn, Pil-Soo
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2006
  • Inventories, and characteristics such as dimension, fuel rod array, weight, $^{235}U$ enrichment, and discharge burnup of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) generated from existing and planed nuclear power plants based on National 2nd Basic Plan for Electric Power Demand and Supply were investigated and projected to support geological disposal system design. The historical and projected inventory by the end 2057 is expected to be 20,500 and 14,800MTU for PWR and CANDU spent nuclear fuel, respectively. The quantity of SNF with initial $^{235}U$ enrichment of 4.5 wt.% and below was shown to be 96.5% in total. Average burnup of SNF revealed $\sim36$ GWD/MTU and $\sim40$ GWD/MTU for the period of 1994-1999 and 2000-2003, respectively. It is expected that the average burnup of SNF will be $\sim45$ GWD/MTU at the end of 2000's. From the comprehensive study, it was concluded that the imaginary SNF with $16\times16$ Korean Standard Fuel Assembly, cross section of $21.4cm\times21.4cm$, length of 453cm, mass of 672 kg, initial $^{235}U$ enrichment of 4.5 wt.%, discharge burnup of 55 GWD/MTU could cover almost all SNFs to be produced by 2057.

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A Study on the Measures of Seafarer Supply with Statistical Comparison of Maritime Graduates Career Path for the Republic of Korea and the Philippines (한국과 필리핀 해양계 졸업생 진로의 통계적 비교를 통한 선원 공급 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Barro, Ronald D.C.;Han, Won-Hui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2012
  • The projection on the demand for seafarers is seen to continue to rise in consonance with the world's fleet increasing tonnage. It is also expected that recurring officer shortages is paramount when global markets bounce off from the economic downturn it experienced for the last few years. In BIMCO/ISF(The Baltic and International Maritime Conference/International Shipping Federation) report for 2010, a continuous effort to produce competent seafarers should be adapted and as much as possible, reduce the wastage in the industry to address the looming scenario. The Republic of Korea, an OECD member, is a powerhouse in shipbuilding industry and has also had continued to show also an expanding trend in its fleet. On the other hand, the Philippines is still acknowledged as the main source of manpower for ocean-trading vessels. In this paper, a statistical comparison of maritime graduates' career path between the two countries is presented. In conclusion, it is suggested that a mutual co-operation between the Republic of Korea and the Philippines can be established with focusing on international maritime education and training collaboration.

The Next Wave in Display Innovation

  • Webster, Steven C.
    • 한국정보디스플레이학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.4-4
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    • 2008
  • The progress in flat panel displays over the last two decades has been astonishing. In just 20 years, the LCD-TV grew up from a 2-inch curiosity, to an industry that will sell about 120 million flat panel TV's this year, with viewing area up to 4000 times larger. That success is based on continuous innovation, especially in manufacturing processes. For the next decade to bring another doubling of the business, progress will need to continue in four major areas: Human factors, ecological impact, visual quality, and of course continued drive towards affordability. This talk will detail the technology advances that can allow this industry to meet those challenges. Human factors. Today, we adapt our lifestyle to our technology. People organize their offices, and their homes, around displays. We pass around mobile phones to share images, rather than experiencing them as a group. Billions of newspapers continue to be sold daily. Advances in flexible displays can lead to large portable displays. "New era projection" includes the handheld Pico Projectors that are already on the market, and will ultimately appear integrated in mobile phones the same way cameras do today. "Eco" impact. Today TV's are one of the top energy consumers in a U.S. home, and the fastest growing. Watching a large flat panel TV can cost twice as much as running a large refrigerator. With today's concern about energy consumption, regulations are starting to emerge worldwide to limit TV electrical use. Fortunately, good solutions exist in using light management films to eliminate bulbs, saving power without increasing cost. Going forward, LED backlights will drive another step downward. OLED displays might be the ultimate solution. Visual quality. The color of an LCD-TV is still often considered inferior to a far less expensive CRT. And almost all displays suffer from representing a three-dimensional world on a two dimensional surface. The technology to improve color is available today, and will likely move from premium sets into the mainstream as costs come down. 3D is now arriving in movie theaters worldwide, and that will drive up the demand for similar realistic images in home theaters. And the technology is emerging today for 3D representation to move beyond specialized applications into everyday use, on screens large and small. Affordability. The world takes cost-down miracles for granted in consumer electronics. Each of these other advances will be balanced with a drive for affordability, especially as the market grows in emerging countries. The other three challenges must be met without increasing cost. Putting this all together, the next few years will emphasize "eco friendly" designs, and enhanced images such as 3D. By 2013 we will start to see serious penetration by emissive technologies (OLED, high efficiency plasma, or other), with the "ultimate display" likely not in the market for a decade. Lots of opportunities for innovation remain ahead of us.

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