• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.19-25
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• 2014

수요예측은 경영 전략을 포함한 모든 경영 활동의 기초가 된다. 특히 부품의 수요예측은 공급망관리 측면에서 매우 중요한 요소 중 하나이다. 부품의 수요는 다양한 산업에서 종종 간헐적 특성을 포함한다. 간헐적 특성이란 수요가 발생하지 않는 경우가 빈번한 현상을 지칭한다. 간헐적 수요 현상에서는 발생된 수요의 분산이 크고 그 발생간격이 확률적이다. 따라서 간헐적 특성을 갖는 수요를 예측하기 위해서 일반적인 시계열 분석기법이나 인과관계를 이용한 모형(회귀모형)을 사용하는 것은 적합하지 않다. 이는 기존의 방법들이 실제 수요행태를 묘사하기 어렵기 때문이다. 이러한 간헐적 수요의 예측을 위해 마코프 부트스트랩이 개발되었다. 이 방법은 1계차 자기상관성을 반영하며 리드타임 동안 수요의 합이 독립임을 가정하였다. 본 연구에서는 리드타임 내 수요 합의 독립가정을 완화한 부트스트랩 방법을 제안한다. 수정된 부트스트랩 방법에 의해 재추출된 데이터는 실측 데이터의 간헐적 특성을 근사적으로 반영한다. 마지막으로 실측 데이터에 수정된 방법을 적용한 예측 결과를 사례로 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.639-649
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• 2013

Over 96.2% of the agricultural water in Jeju Island is obtained from groundwater and there are quite distinct characteristics of agricultural water demand/supply spatially because of regional and seasonal differences in cropping system and rainfall amount. Land use for cultivating crops is expected to decrease 7.4% (4,215 ha) in 2020 compared to 2010, while market garden including various vegetable crop types having high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially western area having lower rainfall amount compared to southern area. On the other hand, land use for fruit including citrus and mandarin having low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall amount. The agricultural water demand of $1,214{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2020 is estimated about 1.39 times compared to groundwater supply capacity of $874{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2010 with 42.4% of eastern, 103.1% of western, 61.9% of southern, and 77.0% of northern region. Moreover, net secured amount of agricultural groundwater would be expected to be much smaller due to regional disparity of water demand/supply, the lack of linkage system between the agricultural water supply facilities, and high percentage of private wells. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the total net secured amount of agricultural groundwater to overcome the expected regional discrepancy of water demand and supply by establishing policy alternative of regional water supply plan over the Island, including linkage system between wells, water tank enlargement, private wells maintenance and public wells development, and continuous enlargement of rainwater utilization facilities.

• 물과 미래
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.158-167
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• 1984

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.90-97
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• 2006

Hydrogen is used as a chemical feedstock in several important industrial processes, including oil refineries and petro-chemical production. But, nowadays hydrogen is focused as energy carrier on the rising of problems such as exhaustion of fossil fuel and environmental pollution. Thermochemical hydrogen production by nuclear energy has potential to efficiently produce large quantities of hydrogen without producing greenhouse gases, and research of nuclear hydrogen, therefore, has been worked with goal to demonstrate commercial production in 2020. The oil refineries and petro-chemical plant are very large, centralized producers and users of industrial hydrogen, and high-potential early market for hydrogen produced by nuclear energy. Therefore, it is essential to investigate and analyze for state of domestic hydrogen market focused on industrial users. Hydrogen market of petro-chemical industry as demand site was investigated and worked for demand forecast of hydrogen in 2020. Also we suggested possible supply plans of nuclear hydrogen considered regional characteristics and then it can be provided basis for determination of optimal capacity of nuclear hydrogen plant in 2020.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.1304-1310
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• 2015

In remote islands, due to expense of existing generation systems, installation of photovoltaic cells (PVs) and wind turbines has a chance of reducing generation costs. However, in island power systems, even short-term power fluctuations change the frequency of grids because of their small inertia constant. In order to compensate power fluctuations, the authors proposed the power consumption control of pumps which send water to tanks. The power control doesn’t affect water users’ convenience as long as tanks hold water. Based on experimental characteristics of a pump system, this paper shows methods to determine reference power consumption of the system with compensation for short-term PV fluctuations while satisfying water demand. One method uses a PI controller and the other method calculates reference power consumption from water flow reference. Simulations with a PV and a pump system are carried out to find optimum parameters and to compare the methods. Results show that both PI control method and water flow calculation method are useful for satisfying the water demand constraint. The water demand constraint has a little impact to suppression of the short-term power fluctuation in this condition.

• Child Health Nursing Research
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.268-276
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• 2006

Purpose: this study is attempted to provide basic data on development of systematic discharge educational programs for discharging cancer patients. Method: The subjects of this study were 132 mothers whose children were diagnosed with cancer and being treated at 3 university hospitals in Busan. The data were collected from December 1 to February 28, 2005, and were analyzed Using SPSS WIN 10.0. Result: The degree of education at the time of discharge from hospital was statistically significantly lower than that of educational demand after the discharge. Such demand significantly varied in accordance with the length of period passed after the discharge. Mother’s educational demand was significantly different in accordance with generation characteristics of her child with cancer, especially the first period of hospitalization and change in weight Conclusions: mothers of children with cancer were higher in educational demand after the child’s discharge from hospital than in education provided at the time of the discharge. Such demand was different in accordance with the length of period passed after the child's discharge from hospital.

• 지역연구
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.39-55
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• 1990

The principal measure of housing demand is income and the preferences expressed by households through their respective indifference curves. In this context, housing essentially becomes a derived demand, i.e., the household consumes land and a location (or distance-in time and money costs), according to its relative preferences for space, accessibility, and all other nonhousing goods. This paper attempts to deal with both aspects of housing (apartment) demand and household mobility in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas. Housing services will be measured using hedonic regression technique. From observations on the market prices of dwelling units and on the underlying characteristics of housing, one can estimte the relationships between the two empirically. In predicting the probability of the future moves into new towns in the Seoul Metropolitan areas, the best predictors of the future moves into new best predictors are found to be the degree of satisfaction not only with the current residence as a whole, but with some of the major amenities, accessibility and child education. The reasons for moving into new towns are diverse depending on the households' current situation; the most frequently cited is "improvement of housing conditions," followed by "improvement of living environment," "asset improvement" and "home ownership". It appears that people move houses because of a dissatisfaction with their current housing status, relative their income or needs, or a desire to improve their housing and neighborhood amenities, or both. On the other hand, it is clear that the development of new towns in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas should be based on the analysis of housing demand and the pattern of household mobility in Seoul housing market.sehold mobility in Seoul housing market.

• 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2019

This study focused on the generational change of elderly people in the future based on the changes of aging background and household structure. After 2025, when the growth rate of aging rapidly becomes prominent, the generation born before 1961, the baby boomers who were in their youth after the country's liberation, will replace the current elderly generation. This means that the characteristics and values of living of the elderly will change and not pass on to the future, and that the demand for housing will also be different. The purpose of this study is to predict the future elderly housing demand and to find out the issues of housing support for elderly people and necessary institutional support items. For this purpose, the preliminary elderly people are surveyed and analyzed for their present housing condition, perception of old age, housing plan, welfare facilities and demand for living services. The results of this study are meaningful in laying the groundwork for predicting the demand for housing and living support of the elderly in the future and proposing suggestions and preparing related systems.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.661-666
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• 2009

In this study, total organic carbon (TOC) and potassium permanganate ($KMnO_4$) demand were examined for raw and finished tap water and the range of $KMnO_4$ demand in drinking water was investigated. By analyzing the relationship between TOC and $KMnO_4$ demand, the applicability of TOC as a drinking water standard and its regulation level was proposed. The average $KMnO_4$ demand was 1.3 mg/L in 4,638 samples from finished drinking water, tap water and finished water from small facilities. $KMnO_4$ demand of 95% of samples was 2.9 mg/L which was 29% of the drinking water standard (10 mg/L). At 12 major drinking water treatment plants, the average $KMnO_4$ demand in July and August was 8.1 and 2.4 mg/L for raw and finished water, respectively. TOC in July and August was 2.0 and 1.15 mg/L for raw and finished water, respectively. The correlation coefficient between $KMnO_4$ demand and TOC was as high as 0.8 in both raw and finished water and $KMnO_4$ demand was twice of TOC in finished water. Because the correlation coefficient and ratio between $KMnO_4$ demand and TOC varied according to season and the characteristics of raw water, it would be difficult to establish TOC standard just from the ratio of $KMnO_4$ demand to TOC. However, it is possible to set the TOC range based on the accumulated $KMnO_4$ demand data or from the satisfactory correlation results. Then, it would be reasonable to establish TOC standard level as 4 ~ 5 mg/L.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.171-185
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• 2017

Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.