• Title/Summary/Keyword: Defense expenditures

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Forecast of Korea Defense Expenditures based on Time Series Models

  • Park, Kyung Ok;Jung, Hye-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2015
  • This study proposes a mathematical model that can forecast national defense expenditures. The ongoing European debt crisis weighs heavily on markets; consequently, government spending in many countries will be constrained. However, a forecasting model to predict military spending is acutely needed for South Korea because security threats still exist and the estimation of military spending at a reasonable level is closely related to economic growth. This study establishes two models: an Auto-Regressive Moving Average model (ARIMA) based on past military expenditures and Transfer Function model with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and consumer price index as input time series. The proposed models use defense spending data as of 2012 to create defense expenditure forecasts up to 2025.

An Operational Analysis of Denfense Expenditures (국방비의 O.R.적 분석)

  • Won, Un-Sang
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 1977
  • The recent issue on the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Korea Suggests an Urgency of Self Defense of Korea. The expected huge defense budget and her armed forces create a need for an operational analysis. It is shown through a statistical analysis what some of the opportunity costs of defense spending have been. Some evidences about what some of the economy sacrifice if defense spending rises have been analyzed to provide executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions. The Korea-U.S. alliance is discussed in view of the developmental effects of U.S. aids and deterrent effects of U.S.F.K.

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The Study on Needs of Guaranteed Funding for Defense Science & Technology through Defense Expenditure Pattern Analysis (국방비 성장패턴 분석을 통한 국방과학기술에 대한 안정적 투자 필요성 연구)

  • Bae, Yoon-Ho;Choi, Seok-Cheol;Youn, Jun-Hwan
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2010
  • Defense expenditure is the investment for national defense capabilities acquisitions based on the national competitiveness, and includes research and development budgets more than some fixed ratio. So we need to guarantee the defense research and development budgets for National Defense Reform 2020 to posture that correspond to the future warfare, to acquire advanced weapon systems and critical technologies effectively. Especially advancement of the defense technology capabilities for future warfare is one of the issues that we are faced, and it needs to be researched and interested continuously. In this paper, we analysed 16 nation`s defense expenditures growth patterns and defense S&T indices, and proposed the needs of the guaranteed funding at the fixed ratio for defense S&T development.

Analyzing the Defense Budgetary in the Republic of Korea with the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (단절균형이론을 적용한 국방예산 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yongjoon Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.779-787
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    • 2023
  • Previous research regarding budget analysis has been mostly limited to describing annual changes in defense budgets relative to total budgets without a theoretical background. More empirical defense budget research is needed with better data. This study conducts an empirical analysis of national defense expenditures using Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in the Republic of Korea's (ROK) functional defense budgets (total defense budget, force operation budget, force improvement budget) and to identify and analyze radical points of change in the defense budget using punctuated equilibrium theory. This study also explores trends and punctuations in the national defense budgets using annual defense budget data from the ROK for every year from 1998 to 2017. This study finds that from 1998 to 2017 the spending pattern of the total defense budget in the ROK was characterized by 19 years of stable growth and a one-time punctuation (5.0%). The force operation budget exhibited stable growth in eighteen years and was punctuated twice (10%). The force improvement budget was punctuated five times.

A Study on Improvement of Rationality and Stability of Allocation and Procurement of Defense Capability Improvement Cost -Focused on the Yearly Allocation and Procurement of Mid-Term Defense Plan- (방위력개선사업비 편성.확보의 합리성과 안정성 제고방안 -국방중기계획 연부액의 편성 및 확보방안을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Joon-Hyouck;Lee, Pil-Jung
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.117-135
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    • 2008
  • The ROK's military is attempting to change to advanced information science force through 'the Defense Reform 2020', which essentially creates the requirements of new military force. Therefore, the importance of defense industry and defense budget have been emphasized in order to successfully promote military build-up. However, the ROK defence industry has been going serious difficulties in the present day, and what is worse, unreliable rationality stability of Defense Capability Improvement Cost put the industry in the harder situation. In this circumstances, the improvement measures of the rationality stability of Defense Capability Improvement Cost should be immediately studied to satisfy the requirements of ROK military force in a suitable time and the development of ROK defense industry. The purpose of this study was to propose reinforcement measures to improve the arrangement system of yearly allocation for Mid-term Defense Plan of defense capability improvement programs and connect Mid-term Defense Plan to National Fiscal Management Plan to raise the rationality stability of ROK Defense Capability Improvement Cost.

NATO's Factor in Ensuring the National Security of Modern Ukraine

  • Biloshytskyi, Volodymyr;Hanhal, Artur;Mokliak, Sergii;Pysmennyi, Oleksii;Smolianiuk, Volodymyr
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.689-695
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    • 2021
  • The study is based on the elaborated normative and legal documentation regulating the national security of modern Ukraine and the normative and legal documents adopted by NATO in the responding policy to the challenges that arose after 2014. The main advantages of cooperation with NATO are ensuring military security, developing army standards, improving the country's investment climate, and reducing expenditures on the army. The disadvantages of cooperation with NATO in hostilities with Russia are not highlighted. Still, defined obstacles show that Ukraine is not ready to realize entry into NATO in the short term. Such factors include weak information support, corruption, and unclear diplomatic decisions.

Statuses of World Governments' Space Activities and Space Markets in 2011 (2011년 세계 각국의 우주분야 투자 및 우주산업 현황)

  • Choe, Nam-Mi
    • Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2011
  • The current space activities are soaring ever since the first human flight to outer space 50 years ago and the first satellite launch 54 years ago. 74 space launch vehicles were launched in 2010, up from average 66 yearly in 2000s, and 900 operational satellites are currently in orbit around Earth. Space has become a worthwhile investment for governments as space assets become vital to national social, economic, and technological development as well as contributing their national defense and security program. The world governments' investments on space programs have reached a historical peak of $71.5 billion in 2010. However, the growth of government funding for space has slowed down posting only a 2% growth rate since 2009 while 9 % compound annual growth rate experienced by world's space expenditures between 2004 and 2009. Korea invested $158 million in 2011, experienced strong decrease with a 16% compound annual growth rate since 2008. In this paper the current statuses of world governments' funding for space program and space market were presented and the current issues on the Korean space budget policy were reviewed.

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The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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Space Development and Law in Asia (아시아의 우주개발과 우주법)

  • Cho, Hong-Je
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.349-384
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    • 2013
  • The Sputnik 1 launching in 1957 made the world recognize the necessity of international regulations on space development and activities in outer space. The United Nations established COPUOS the very next year, and adopted the mandate to examine legal issues concerning the peaceful uses of outer space. At the time, the military sector of the U.S.A. and the Soviet Union were in charge of the space development and they were not welcomed to discuss the prohibition of the military uses of outer space at the legal section in the COPUOS. Although both countries had common interests in securing the freedom of military uses in outer space. As the social and economic benefits derived from space activities have become more apparent, civil expenditures on space activities have continued to increase in several countries. Virtually all new spacefaring states explicitly place a priority on space-based applications to support social and economic development. Such space applications as satellite navigation and Earth imaging are core elements of almost every existing civil space program. Likewise, Moon exploration continues to be a priority for such established spacefaring states as China, Russia, India, and Japan. Recently, Companies that manufacture satellites and ground equipment have also seen significant growth. On 25 February 2012 China successfully launched the eleventh satellite for its indigenous global navigation and positioning satellite system, Beidou. Civil space activities began to grow in China when they were allocated to the China Great Wall Industry Corporation in 1986. China Aerospace Corporation was established in 1993, followed by the development of the China National Space Administration. In Japan civil space was initially coordinated by the National Space Activities Council formed in 1960. Most of the work was performed by the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science of the University of Tokyo, the National Aerospace Laboratory, and, most importantly, the National Space Development Agency. In 2003 all this work was assumed by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency(JAXA). Japan eases restrictions on military space development. On 20 June 2012 Japan passed the Partial Revision of the Cabinet Establishment Act, which restructured the authority to regulate Japanese space policy and budget, including the governance of the JAXA. Under this legislation, the Space Activities Commission of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, which was responsible for the development of Japanese space program, will be abolished. Regulation of space policy and budget will be handed over to the Space Strategy Headquarter formed under the Prime Minister's Cabinet. Space Strategy will be supported by a Consultative Policy Commission as an academics and independent observers. By revoking Article 4 (Objectives of the Agency) of a law that previously governed JAXA and mandated the development of space programs for "peaceful purposes only," the new legislation demonstrates consistency with Article 2 of the 2008 Basic Space Law. In conformity with the principles laid down in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty JAXA is now free to pursue the non-aggressive military use of space. New legislation is the culmination of a decade-long process that sought ways to "leverage Japan's space development programs and technologies for security purposes, to bolster the nation's defenses in the face of increased tensions in East Asia." In this connection it would also be very important and necessary to create an Asian Space Agency(ASA) for strengthening cooperation within the Asian space community towards joint undertakings.

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