• Title/Summary/Keyword: Defaults

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A CONSIDERATION ON PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS

  • Sugisaka, Masanori;Nakanishi, Kiyokazu;Mitsuo, Noriaki
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.468-468
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    • 2000
  • In our laboratory, the control aspects are investigated in the photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). The PV system is very good for earth environment, but if it connects to power network system, many problems are raised (protection, voltage, harmonics etc.). In this paper, we present the result of the basic studies for the building of the PV system that amplifies the electric energy obtained from the solar cell. We consider electronic circuits in order to protect the PV system from power surge induced by lightning and also design an electronic circuit in order to detect defaults in the power network system. We would like to integrate these circuits into the PV system by considering its control equipment build by 8-bit microcomputer using various control theory (fuzzy, neural network etc.).

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A dynamic Bayesian approach for probability of default and stress test

  • Kim, Taeyoung;Park, Yousung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.579-588
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    • 2020
  • Obligor defaults are cross-sectionally correlated as obligors share common economic conditions; in addition obligors are longitudinally correlated so that an economic shock like the IMF crisis in 1998 lasts for a period of time. A longitudinal correlation should be used to construct statistical scenarios of stress test with which we replace a type of artificial scenario that the banks have used. We propose a Bayesian model to accommodate such correlation structures. Using 402 obligors to a domestic bank in Korea, our model with a dynamic correlation is compared to a Bayesian model with a stationary longitudinal correlation and the classical logistic regression model. Our model generates statistical financial statement under a stress situation on individual obligor basis so that the genearted financial statement produces a similar distribution of credit grades to when the IMF crisis occurred and complies with Basel IV (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2017) requirement that the credit grades under a stress situation are not sensitive to the business cycle.

Logistic Regression for Investigating Credit Card Default

  • Yang, Jeong-Won;Ha, Sung-Ho;Min, Ji-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.164-169
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    • 2008
  • The increasing late-payment rate of credit card customers caused by a recent economic downturn are incurring not only reduced profit of department stores but also significant loss. Under this pressure, the objective of credit forecasting is extended from presumption of good or bad customers to contribution to revenue growth. As a method of managing defaults of department store credit card, this study classifies credit delinquents into some clusters, analyzes repaying patterns of customers in each cluster, and develops credit forecasting system to manage delinquents of department store credit card using data of Korean D department store's delinquents. The model presented by this study uses Kohonen network, a kind of artificial neural network of data mining techniques to cluster credit delinquents into groups. Logistic regression model is also used to predict repayment rate of customers of each cluster per period. The accuracy of presented system for the whole clusters is 92.3%.

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On the Mathematical Metaphors in the Mathematics Classroom (초등 4학년 도형 영역의 수학 수업에 나타난 은유 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Mee;Shin, In-Sun
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
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    • v.10 no.1 s.19
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2007
  • This paper is to give a brief introduction to a new discipline called 'conceptual metaphor' and 'mathematical metaphor(Lakoff & Nunez, 2000) from the viewpoint of mathematics education and to analyze the metaphors at 4th graders' mathematics classroom as a case of conceptual metaphors. First, contemporary conception on metaphors is reviewed. Second, it is discussed on the effects and defaults of metaphors in teaching and learning mathematics. Finally, as a case study of mathematical metaphors, conceptual metaphors on the concepts of triangles at 4th graders' mathematics classrooms are analyzed. Students may reason metaphorically to understand mathematical concepts. Conceptual metaphor makes mathematics enormously rich, but it also brings confusion and paradox. Digging out the metaphors may lighten both our spontaneous everyday conceptions and scientific theorizing(Sfard, 1998). Studies of metaphors give us the power of understanding the culture of mathematics classroom and also generate it.

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Development of Functional Milk and Dairy Products by Nanotechnology (나노 기술을 이용한 기능성 우유 및 유제품의 개발 연구)

  • Gwak, Hae-Su
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2005
  • The development of functional foods started booming from several years ago in the world. The size of functional materials are in the range of micrometer level. This size can be much smaller into nanometer level to be more effective. We face some problems from the materials, such as flavor, taste, color, viscosity, etc. in functional materials. The problems can be solved by micro / nanoencapsulation technique. This paper showed some results of the research related on the technique for functional milks and dairy products. The nono / microcapsules are the form of liquid instead of solid. Coating materials used were fatty acid esters, and core materials were lactase, iron, ascorbic acid. isoflavone, and chitooligosaccharide. The ranges of capsules are from 100 nm to 200 ${\mu}$m. The sample milks added nano/microcapsules were homogeneous and prevented the defects of core materials. It was observed that nano / microcapsules in milk and dairy products were effective as functional material without defaults. It was indicated that targeted functional foods can be developed further in various foods by nanotechnology.

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Combination-mode BLE Device Profile for Connection & Non-connection Methods

  • Jiang, Guangqiu;Joe, Inwhee
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2016.04a
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    • pp.897-899
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, BLE technology has received extensive attention and has been applied to all aspects of life. The existing BLE device has two methods, one is the connection method, and the other is a non-connection method. The representative profile of the connection method is the proximity file. The most typical example of Non-connection method BLE device is a beacon. However, they are both independent and have their own shortcomings. Connection method device can provide service for only one user, others can't use. Security performance of Non-connection method BLE device is poor and the device can't be controlled by the user. In this paper, a combination-mode BLE device profile design scheme is presented, which combines with the previous two methods, and solves the defaults. And We define a dual purpose advertising package that can be used in a normal environment as well as in a disaster environment. Finally, a unidirectional Control idea is proposed. Through performance evaluation, we found that the device has strong stability and low power consumption.

Deep Learning-based Delinquent Taxpayer Prediction: A Scientific Administrative Approach

  • YongHyun Lee;Eunchan Kim
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.30-45
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    • 2024
  • This study introduces an effective method for predicting individual local tax delinquencies using prevalent machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The evaluation of credit risk holds great significance in the financial realm, impacting both companies and individuals. While credit risk prediction has been explored using statistical and machine learning techniques, their application to tax arrears prediction remains underexplored. We forecast individual local tax defaults in Republic of Korea using machine and deep learning algorithms, including convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq). Our model incorporates diverse credit and public information like loan history, delinquency records, credit card usage, and public taxation data, offering richer insights than prior studies. The results highlight the superior predictive accuracy of the CNN model. Anticipating local tax arrears more effectively could lead to efficient allocation of administrative resources. By leveraging advanced machine learning, this research offers a promising avenue for refining tax collection strategies and resource management.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Bank-specific Factors Affecting Non-performing Loans in Developing Countries: Case Study of Indonesia

  • Rachman, Rathria Arrina;Kadarusman, Yohanes Berenika;Anggriono, Kevin;Setiadi, Robertus
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2018
  • In recent decades, financial crises in various countries have often been preceded by the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banks' asset portfolios. The increase in NPLs is proven to have adverse impact on the banking sector so that understanding the determinant of NPLs is immensely crucial to ensure the efficiency and soundness of the overall economy. This study aims to shed light on bank-specific factors that affect loan default problems in developing countries whose banking sectors play a major role in the overall economy. This study analyzes panel data sets of 36 commercial banks listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period 2008-2015. Applying fixed-effects panel regression model reveals that Indonesian banks' profitability and credit growth negatively influence the number of NPLs. Moreover, banks with higher profitability are proven to have lower NPLs because they can afford adequate credit management practices. Likewise, banks with higher credit growth evidently have lower NPLs in the sense that they demonstrate more specialized lending activity and thus have better credit management systems. These findings imply that, in order to lower loan defaults that can deteriorate banks' asset quality, banks should maintain their level of profitability and increase, rather than decrease, their credit supply to debtors.

The Study on Transformation of the First and the Second Carved Tripitaka on the Basis of the Analysis of Koryokukshinjodaechangkyochongbyollock (고려국신조대장교정별록의 분석을 통해 본 초조 및 재조대장경의 변용에 관한 연구)

  • 강순애
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.103-146
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    • 1994
  • Koryokukshinjodaechangkyochongbyollock is an epoch-making catalogue for historical study of proofing Buddhist scriptures in Korea. This bibliography was appended to the 30 volumes which was corrected in 70 Ham, 66 scriptures, and 79 cases. Comparing the differences between the first carved Tripitaka' s texts in Korea, texts made in the Sung dynasty, and the Kitan's texts, this catalogue discovered the name of scriptures, translators, volume number, the changed am order as well as omission, defaults, mistranslation of the Tripitaka made in the Sung dynasty. From Chon-ham to Young-ham, 480 sets among Kaewon-sokkyorock and 43 sets among Chongwonrock were correctly laid. Songshinyokkyong and the Sung Emperor, T'ai Tsung's statements were excluded. Even though it was possible to get these scriptures only by import from Sung, these imported scriptures had no reason to be proofed because of their new version and the author's direct selection in Sung. Shinchipchangkyon-geumeuisuhamlock has no authentic Sung's and Koryo's text books for correction. kyochongbyollock delivered the scriptures listed on Kudaechangmoklock, which gives an important clue to research transformation from the first to the second carved Tripitaka. Through the systematic study of the transformated facts beteween the first carved Tripitaka and the second one, This study would help rebulid the original Chojodaechan-gkynng which has been not yet perfectly discovered itself.

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