• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-support

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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

An exploratory study on practice-oriented reconceptualization of self-sufficiency : Service providers' reflections on their own experiences from the field (현장의 시각으로부터 구조화된 자활 개념 탐색 연구 : 자활사업 실무자의 이해를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Sangmi;Hong, Song-Iee
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.5-33
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    • 2018
  • A self-sufficiency service has worked as a typical workfare policy combined with public assistance in Korea since 2000. Despite of its long history, three core pillars in administrating the self-sufficiency service, policy, research, and practice, have respectively understood the meaning of self-sufficiency in terms of their own interests. As a result, the self-sufficiency service has recently faced with its own identity issues by showing failures to its environmental changes. The current situation makes it necessary to reconceptualize the definition of self-sufficiency by exploring its in-depth understanding perceived by service providers. Specifically, we analyzed practical reflections on 35 service providers' experiences which were collected via focus group interviews for two hours. The study findings presented that service providers had two antithetical approaches towards self-sufficiency. While a dominant approach to self-sufficiency has been concentrated on improving clients' economic outcomes such as employment, job retention, the escape from welfare trap, and increasing earnings and assets, the other approach has been extended to empower clients and achieve their well-being and quality of life. Yet, these contrary perspectives have led to suffer from their role confusions and identity crisis between the work-ready process and the employment-oriented outcomes. Specifically, they described self-sufficiency in terms of psychological, social, and integrated aspects. The psychological aspect included a process of developing inner strengths, intensifying job motivation, and coping with barriers of employment. The social aspect meant a path toward social integration through recovering human relationships. The integrated aspect covered more comprehensive support for their recovery of daily life and autonomy to make a decision for their own life. In conclusion, the study findings suggest that self-sufficiency should be more extensively considered as a stepwise process towards work-ready preparations beyond ultimate economic outcomes. Such an extended concept of self-sufficiency could contribute to restructuring the whole practice of self-sufficiency including organizational and program changes in the fields.

Analysis of the Weight of SWOT Factors of Korean Venture Companies Based on the Industry 4.0 (4차 산업혁명 기반 한국 벤처기업의 SWOT요인에 대한 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Dongik;Lee, Sangsuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.115-133
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the concept and related technologies of the 4th industrial revolution that has been mixed so far and examines the socio-economic changes and influences resulting from it, and the cases of responding to the 4th industrial revolution in major countries. Based on this, by deriving SWOT factors and calculating the importance of each factor for Korean venture companies to prepare for the forth industrial revolution, it was intended to help the government and policymakers in suggesting directions for establishing related policies. Furthermore, the purpose of this study was to suggest a direction for securing global competitiveness to Korean venture entrepreneurs and to help with basic and systematic analysis for further academic in-depth research. For this study, a total of 21 items derived through extensive literature research and data research to understand what are the necessary competency factors for internal and external environmental changes in order for Korean venture companies to have global competitiveness in the era of the 4th Industrial Revolution. After reviewing SWOT factors by three expert groups and confirming them through Delphi survey, the importance of each item was analyzed by using AHP, a systematic decision-making technique. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that Strength(48%), Opportunity(25%), Threat(16%), Weakness(11%) were considered important in order. In terms of sub-items, 'quick and flexible commercialization capability', 'platform/big data/non-face-to-face service activation', and 'ICT infrastructure and it's utilization' were shown to be of the comparatively high importance. On the other hand, in the lower three items, 'macro-economic stability and social infrastructure', 'difficulty in entering overseas markets due to global protectionism', and 'absolutely inferior in foreign investment' were found to have low priority. As a result of the correlation verification by item to see differences in opinions by industry, academia, and policy expert groups, there was no significant difference of opinion, as industry and academic experts showed a high correlation and industry experts and policy experts showed a moderate correlation. The correlation between the academic and policy experts was not statistically significant (p<0.01), so it was analyzed that there was a difference of opinion on importance. This was due to the fact that policy experts highly valued 'quick and flexible commercialization', which are strengths, and 'excellent educational system and high-quality manpower' and 'creation of new markets' which are opportunity items, while academic experts placed great importance on 'support part of government policy', which are strengths. The implication of this study is that in order for Korean venture companies to secure competitiveness in the field of the 4th industrial revolution, it is necessary to have a policy that preferentially supports the relevant items of strengths and opportunity factors. The difference in the details of strength factors and opportunity factors, which shows a high level of variability, suggests that it is necessary to actively review it and reflect it in the policy.

The Effect of the Characteristics of Agri-Food Open Market on the Repurchase Intention: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Innovation (농식품 오픈 마켓 특성이 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향: 혁신성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sangmi;Ha, Gyusu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2021
  • With the disappearance of boundaries between online and offline, the O2O(online to offline) platform service is rapidly growing. Unlike general products, freshness is an important decision-making factor for agri-food, and there are many limiting factors for growth as an open market among O2O platforms due to the characteristics of difficult refunds and exchanges compared to other items and new transaction methods. In order to overcome these obstacles, consumer innovation must be considered. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of O2O(online to offline) platform characteristics perception on agri-food repurchase intentions. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. For this purpose, Using a convenience sampling technique, an online survey was conducted through Google survey from April 1 to April 15, 2021. A total of final analysis data were collected from a total of 270 purchase experienced of agri-food O2O(online to offline) platform. The SPSS program was used for analysis, and multiple regression analysis was used for hypothesis verification. The results showed that Economic, Interaction, and Playfulness had a significant positive effect on agri-food repurchase intend. Also, Interactivity × innovation, playfulness × innovation were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on repurchase intention. The results of this study show that innovation reduces the burden on consumers for new systems and mobile transactions. The results of this study suggest that convenient interface design is important for activating O2O transactions of agri-food. In addition, education and support are needed to strengthen the IT competency of farmers. The results of this study will be able to contribute to the establishment of infrastructure for agri-food open market shopping malls. In future studies, the influence of the O2O platform type on the purchase intention should be studied continuously.

A Study on Enhancing Personalization Recommendation Service Performance with CNN-based Review Helpfulness Score Prediction (CNN 기반 리뷰 유용성 점수 예측을 통한 개인화 추천 서비스 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Li, Qinglong;Lee, Byunghyun;Li, Xinzhe;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.29-56
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    • 2021
  • Recently, various types of products have been launched with the rapid growth of the e-commerce market. As a result, many users face information overload problems, which is time-consuming in the purchasing decision-making process. Therefore, the importance of a personalized recommendation service that can provide customized products and services to users is emerging. For example, global companies such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google have introduced personalized recommendation services to support users' purchasing decisions. Accordingly, the user's information search cost can reduce which can positively affect the company's sales increase. The existing personalized recommendation service research applied Collaborative Filtering (CF) technique predicts user preference mainly use quantified information. However, the recommendation performance may have decreased if only use quantitative information. To improve the problems of such existing studies, many studies using reviews to enhance recommendation performance. However, reviews contain factors that hinder purchasing decisions, such as advertising content, false comments, meaningless or irrelevant content. When providing recommendation service uses a review that includes these factors can lead to decrease recommendation performance. Therefore, we proposed a novel recommendation methodology through CNN-based review usefulness score prediction to improve these problems. The results show that the proposed methodology has better prediction performance than the recommendation method considering all existing preference ratings. In addition, the results suggest that can enhance the performance of traditional CF when the information on review usefulness reflects in the personalized recommendation service.

Real-time CRM Strategy of Big Data and Smart Offering System: KB Kookmin Card Case (KB국민카드의 빅데이터를 활용한 실시간 CRM 전략: 스마트 오퍼링 시스템)

  • Choi, Jaewon;Sohn, Bongjin;Lim, Hyuna
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2019
  • Big data refers to data that is difficult to store, manage, and analyze by existing software. As the lifestyle changes of consumers increase the size and types of needs that consumers desire, they are investing a lot of time and money to understand the needs of consumers. Companies in various industries utilize Big Data to improve their products and services to meet their needs, analyze unstructured data, and respond to real-time responses to products and services. The financial industry operates a decision support system that uses financial data to develop financial products and manage customer risks. The use of big data by financial institutions can effectively create added value of the value chain, and it is possible to develop a more advanced customer relationship management strategy. Financial institutions can utilize the purchase data and unstructured data generated by the credit card, and it becomes possible to confirm and satisfy the customer's desire. CRM has a granular process that can be measured in real time as it grows with information knowledge systems. With the development of information service and CRM, the platform has change and it has become possible to meet consumer needs in various environments. Recently, as the needs of consumers have diversified, more companies are providing systematic marketing services using data mining and advanced CRM (Customer Relationship Management) techniques. KB Kookmin Card, which started as a credit card business in 1980, introduced early stabilization of processes and computer systems, and actively participated in introducing new technologies and systems. In 2011, the bank and credit card companies separated, leading the 'Hye-dam Card' and 'One Card' markets, which were deviated from the existing concept. In 2017, the total use of domestic credit cards and check cards grew by 5.6% year-on-year to 886 trillion won. In 2018, we received a long-term rating of AA + as a result of our credit card evaluation. We confirmed that our credit rating was at the top of the list through effective marketing strategies and services. At present, Kookmin Card emphasizes strategies to meet the individual needs of customers and to maximize the lifetime value of consumers by utilizing payment data of customers. KB Kookmin Card combines internal and external big data and conducts marketing in real time or builds a system for monitoring. KB Kookmin Card has built a marketing system that detects realtime behavior using big data such as visiting the homepage and purchasing history by using the customer card information. It is designed to enable customers to capture action events in real time and execute marketing by utilizing the stores, locations, amounts, usage pattern, etc. of the card transactions. We have created more than 280 different scenarios based on the customer's life cycle and are conducting marketing plans to accommodate various customer groups in real time. We operate a smart offering system, which is a highly efficient marketing management system that detects customers' card usage, customer behavior, and location information in real time, and provides further refinement services by combining with various apps. This study aims to identify the traditional CRM to the current CRM strategy through the process of changing the CRM strategy. Finally, I will confirm the current CRM strategy through KB Kookmin card's big data utilization strategy and marketing activities and propose a marketing plan for KB Kookmin card's future CRM strategy. KB Kookmin Card should invest in securing ICT technology and human resources, which are becoming more sophisticated for the success and continuous growth of smart offering system. It is necessary to establish a strategy for securing profit from a long-term perspective and systematically proceed. Especially, in the current situation where privacy violation and personal information leakage issues are being addressed, efforts should be made to induce customers' recognition of marketing using customer information and to form corporate image emphasizing security.

Evolution of Aviation Safety Regulations to cope with the concept of data-driven rulemaking - Safety Management System & Fatigue Risk Management System

  • Lee, Gun-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.345-366
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    • 2018
  • Article 37 of the International Convention on Civil Aviation requires that rules should be adopted to keep in compliance with international standards and recommended practices established by ICAO. As SARPs are revised annually, each ICAO Member State needs to reflect the new content in its national aviation Acts in a timely manner. In recent years, data-driven international standards have been developed because of the important roles of aviation safety data and information-based legislation in accident prevention based on human factors. The Safety Management System and crew Fatigue Risk Management Systems were reviewed as examples of the result of data-driven rulemaking. The safety management system was adopted in 2013 with the introduction of Annex 19 and Chapter 5 of the relevant manual describes safety data collection and analysis systems. Through analysis of safety data and information, decision makers can make informed data-driven decisions. The Republic of Korea introduced Safety Management System in accordance with Article 58 of the Aviation Safety Act for all airlines, maintenance companies, and airport corporations. To support the SMS, both mandatory reporting and voluntary safety reporting systems need to be in place. Up until now, the standard of administrative penal dispensation for violations of the safety management system has been very weak. Various regulations have been developed and implemented in the United States and Europe for the proper legislation of the safety management system. In the wake of the crash of the Colgan aircraft, the US Aviation Safety Committee recommended the US Federal Aviation Administration to establish a system that can identify and manage pilot fatigue hazards. In 2010, a notice of proposed rulemaking was issued by the Federal Aviation Administration and in 2011, the final rule was passed. The legislation was applied to help differentiate risk based on flight according to factors such as the pilot's duty starting time, the availability of the auxiliary crew, and the class of the rest facility. Numerous amounts data and information were analyzed during the rulemaking process, and reflected in the resultant regulations. A cost-benefit analysis, based on the data of the previous 10 year period, was conducted before the final legislation was reached and it was concluded that the cost benefits are positive. The Republic of Korea also currently has a clause on aviation safety legislation related to crew fatigue risk, where an airline can choose either to conform to the traditional flight time limitation standard or fatigue risk management system. In the United States, specifically for the purpose of data-driven rulemaking, the Airline Rulemaking Committee was formed, and operates in this capacity. Considering the advantageous results of the ARC in the US, and the D4S in Europe, this is a system that should definitely be introduced in Korea as well. A cost-benefit analysis is necessary, and can serve to strengthen the resulting legislation. In order to improve the effectiveness of data-based legislation, it is necessary to have reinforcement of experts and through them prepare a more detailed checklist of relevant variables.

A Development of Evaluation Indicators for Performance Improvement of Horticultural Therapy Garden (원예치료정원의 성능개선을 위한 평가지표 개발)

  • Ahn, Je-Jun;Park, Yool-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this research is to develop evaluation indicators forperformance improvement of horticultural therapy garden. In order to achieve a therapeutic purpose, the gardening activity held by the trained horticultural therapist. Moreover, horticultural therapy is 'a medical model' for the treatment and basic premise of the research was set, as horticultural therapy garden is characterized area to support activities of patients and horticultural therapist functionally and efficiently. For this study, three times of Delphi and AHP techniques were proceeded to export panels who were recruited by purposive sampling. Through these techniques, it was possible to deduct the evaluation indicator which maximizes the performance of the horticultural therapy garden. The evaluation items were prioritized by typing and stratification of the indicator. The results and discussions were stated as followings. Firstly, a questionnaire of experts was conducted to horticultural therapists and civil servants who were in charge of horticultural therapy. As results(horticultural therapists: 87.8%, civil servants: 75.2%), It is possible to conclude that both positions have the high recognition and agreed on the necessity of horticultural therapy. Secondly, Delphi investigation was conducted three times in order to develop the evaluation indicator for performance evaluation. After Delphi analysis, total 34 of evaluation elements to improve the performance of the horticultural therapy garden by reliability and validity analysis results. Thirdly, AHP analysis of each evaluation indicator was conducted on the relative importance and weighting. Moreover, the results showed 'interaction between nature and human' as the most important element, and in order of 'plan of the program', 'social interaction', 'sustainable environmental', and 'universal design rule', respectively. On the other hand, the exports from the university and research institute evaluated the importance of 'interaction between nature and human', while horticultural therapists chose 'plan of the program' as the most important element. Fourthly, the total weight was used to develop weight applied evaluation indicator for the performance evaluation of the horticultural therapy garden. The weight applying to evaluation index is generally calculated multiply the evaluation scores and the total weight using AHP analysis. Finally, 'the evaluation indicator and evaluation score sheet for performance improvement of the horticultural therapy garden' was finally stated based on the relative order of priority between evaluation indicators and analyzing the weight. If it was deducted the improvement points for the efficiency of already established horticultural therapy garden using the 'weight applied evaluation sheet', it is possible to expand it by judging the importance with the decision of the priority because the item importance decided by experts was reflected. Moreover, in the condition of new garden establishment, it is expected to be helpful in suggesting ways for performance improvement and in setting the guidelines by understanding the major indicators of performance improvement in horticultural therapy activity.

Application of CBM-CFS3 Model to Assess Carbon Stock and Age Class Changes Over Long Term Forest Planning in a Korea's National Forest (산림탄소축적을 고려한 국유림 장기경영계획 수립을 위한 CBM-CFS3 모델의 적용)

  • Jang, Kwangmin;Won, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Young-Hwan;Tak, Kwang-IL;Shin, Man Yong;Lee, Kyeonghak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.4
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2011
  • Forest carbon stock changes in a national forest were assessed by CBM-CFS3 model with different management scenarios to support decision making for a long term forest planning. Management scenarios were composed with 4 different levels of timber harvesting - current harvesting level (scenario1), 30% increment in each period (scenario2), 3 times increment (scenario3), and 5 times increment (scenario4). For each scenarios, changes in total carbon stocks, carbon stocks of each carbon pools, carbon stocks of harvested wood products (HWP) and age class structure were estimated over 100-year planning horizon. The estimated total carbon stock including HWP at the end of final period (100 years) was 433.1 tC/ha under scenario 1, but the age class structure has skewed right to the upper classes, which is not desirable for sustainable forest management. Under the scenario 4, however, the total carbon stock decrease to 385.5 tC/ha and the area of old growth forest show a significant decline. The estimated total carbon stock under scenario 2 and 3 were 411.7 tC/ha and 410.5 tC/ha respectively, and it was able to maintain the initial level of the forest carbon stocks during the planning horizon. Also the age class structures under the scenario 2 and 3 were evenly distributed from class 1 to class 8. Overall, scenario 2 and 3 were the most acceptable forest management options, in terms of carbon stock changes and age class structure.

Application of diversity of recommender system accordingtouserpreferencechange (사용자 선호도 변화에 따른 추천시스템의 다양성 적용)

  • Na, Hyeyeon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.67-86
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    • 2020
  • Recommender Systems have been huge influence users and business more and more. Recently the importance of E-commerce has been reached rapid growth greatly in world-wide COVID-19 pandemic. Recommender system is the center of E-commerce lively. Top ranked E-commerce managers mentioned that recommender systems have a major influence on customer's purchase such as about 50% of Netflix, Amazon sales from their recommender systems. Most algorithms have been focused on improving accuracy of recommender system regardless of novelty, diversity, serendipity etc. Recommender systems with only high accuracy cannot satisfy business long-term profit because of generating sales polarization. In addition, customers do not experience enjoyment of shopping from only focusing accuracy recommender system because customer's preference is changed constantly. Therefore, recommender systems with various values need to be developed for user's high satisfaction. Reranking is the most useful methodology to realize diversity of recommender system. In this paper, diversity of recommender system is represented through constructing high similarity with users who have different preference using each user's purchased item's category algorithm. It is distinguished from past research approach which is changing the algorithm of recommender system without user's diversity preference level. We tried to discover user's diversity preference level and observed the results how the effect was different according to user's diversity preference level. In addition, graph-based recommender system was used to show diversity through user's network, not collaborative filtering. In this paper, Amazon Grocery and Gourmet Food data was used because the low-involvement product, such as habitual product, foods, low-priced goods etc., had high probability to show customer's diversity. First, a bipartite graph with users and items simultaneously is constructed to make graph-based recommender system. However, each users and items unipartite graph also need to be established to show diversity of recommender system. The weight of each unipartite graph has played crucial role changing Jaccard Distance of item's category. We can observe two important results from the user's unipartite network. First, the user's diversity preference level is observed from the network and second, dissimilar users can be discovered in the user's network. Through the research process, diversity of recommender system is presented highly with small accuracy loss and optimalization for higher accuracy is possible controlling diversity ratio. This paper has three important theoretical points. First, this research expands recommender system research for user's satisfaction with various values. Second, the graph-based recommender system is developed newly. Third, the evaluation indicator of diversity is made for diversity. In addition, recommender systems are useful for corporate profit practically and this paper has contribution on business closely. Above all, business long-term profit can be improved using recommender system with diversity and the recommender system can provide right service according to user's diversity level. Lastly, the corporate selling low-involvement products have great effect based on the results.