• IE interfaces
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.11-20
• /
• 2007

This case study aims to embody the requirement of the make-to-order type manufacturer who wants to manage risks effectively when decisions are required to be taken under a risk. First, we present a method for choosing the risk factors that should be controlled for the make-to-order type manufacturer. Subsequently, those factors have been verified using statistical methods such as the ANOVA test. The process flows to be operated with the selected risk factors and the rules for an early warning system have been proposed. For a couple of factors, a prototype system has been developed to illustrate actual applications. Applications of the technique developed here for other types of manufacturers might be an interesting research problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.9
• /
• pp.111-124
• /
• 1983

The basic model of decision problem the enterprise is conforonted with includes the following 3 elements ; 1) Elements that can not be controlled by the decision maker : In the thesis elements are named environmental variables, and varied itself according to the change of environmental condition. 2) Elements that can be controlled by the decision maker ; These elements are called decision elements in the thesis and variable according to the event. 3) object of decision making : The degree of achievement to the object is identified by taking various criteria- The index indicating the degree of achievement to the object whatever criterion is applied is called object function in the thesis. It's the fanetion of environmental variable, decision variable and object function. The relation between them brings forth the relation formula that characterize the each problem. The basic types of decision making model use in the thesis are as following ; 1) The problem of decision making under conditions of certainty. 2) The problem of decision making under conditions of risk. 3) The problem of decision making under conditions of uncertainty. 4) The problem of decision making under competitive condition. in general case that the Profit of two decision makers varies, what we regard the decision that make the sum of profit of two men maximum as the best choice for two men has a reasonability in certain case. When the sum of profit two men is zero, by taking toe promise that ail of them art according to the min-max criteria and by extending the object of choice to the mixed strategy. We certify the existance of equilibrium solution and admit them as the best solution of competitive model in general.

• Fire Science and Engineering
• /
• v.29 no.5
• /
• pp.88-95
• /
• 2015

We propose a weather-related service for fire risk assessment in order to increase fire safety awareness in everyday life. The proposed service offers a fire risk assessment level according to weather forecasts and a degree of fire risk according to fire factors under certain weather conditions. In order to estimate the fire risk, we produced a risk matrix through data mining with a decision tree using investigation data and weather data. Through the proposed service, residents can calculate the degree of fire risk under certain weather conditions using the fire factors around them. In addition, they can choose from various solutions to reduce fire risk. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed services, we developed a system that offers the services. Whenever weather forecasting is carried out by the Korea Meteorological Administration, the system produces the fire risk assessment levels for seven major cities and nine provinces of South Korea in an online process, as well as the fire risk according to fire factors for the weather conditions in each region.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.21-34
• /
• 1986

The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk and uncertainty involved in the capital budgeting which is executed in long periods and requires massive capital expenditure. Under risk and uncertainty conditions, the estimates in the capital budgeting are random variables rather than known constants. Two approaches have emerged in performing economic analysis that explicitly incorporate risk and uncertainty conditions in the analysis. One approach is to develop a descriptive model which describes the economic performance of an individual investment alternative. But no recomendation would be forthcoming from the model. Rather, the decision-maker would be furnished descriptive information concerning each alternative; the final choice among the alternatives would required a separate action. The second approach is to develop a normative model which includes an objective function to be maximized or minimized. The output from the model prescribes the course of action to be taken. Owing to the fact that the normative approach considers the fitness of criteria for decision-making its reasonableness looks better. But it is almost imposible that we correctly and easily derive the individuals' utility function. So within we recognize the limits of the descriptive methods, it is more practicle to analyse the investment alternatives by sensitivity analysis.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.574-590
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this paper is the provision of a decision-making tool for developers to identify the project risks for under-consideration overseas independent power projects (IPPs), and to analyze the priority and importance weights of the risks through the employment of a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. A fuzzy MCDM is the calculation method for which the imprecision of each respondent's unique opinion is considered. Through the extensive literature surveys that were conducted for this paper, eight major project finance (PF) risks have been derived credit risk, completion risk, market risk, fuel risk, operating risk, financial risk, environmental risk, and force majeure. The empirical results show that the market risk is the most important risk factor in terms of overseas IPPs, thereby confirming that the long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) guarantee of the host country is one of the most important corresponding factors for the PF.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.40 no.5
• /
• pp.327-348
• /
• 2008

A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.63-73
• /
• 1998

The paper deals with interactive multiple criteria decision making procedure when decision maker (DM) specifies her or his preference in incomplete ways. Usually DM is willing or able to provide only incomplete information, because of time pressure and lack of knowledge or data. Under incomplete information on utility and attribute weight, the pairwise dominance checks result in strict or weak dominance values. Considering only strict dominance values sometimes fails to Prioritize alternatives because of fuzziness of preference information. Further there exists some information loss useful if used, otherwise. In this paper, we consider the outranking concept which implies the willingness of DM's taking some risk under the least favorable situation because she has enough reasons to admit the results. By comparing the magnitude of net preference degree of alternatives which is defined by difference between outrankings and outranked degree of each alternative, we can prioritize alternatives.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
• /
• v.47 no.5
• /
• pp.67-77
• /
• 2009

This study examined risk factors and protective factors in high school students’ suicidal ideation. Participants were 2000 adolescents from the KEEP(Korean Education and Employment Panel). Data mining decision tree model revealed that: (1) Irrespective of sex, the most important predictor was father-adolescent relationship. (2) Positive mother-adolescent relationship was predicted as protective factor in condition of negative father-adolescent relationship. (3) Family activities was predicted as risk factor in condition of negative mother-adolescent relationship under the circumstances with negative father-adolescent relationship. (4) Low self-evaluation was predicted as risk factor in condition of serious agony about personality under the circumstances with positive father-adolescent relationship.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.60
• /
• pp.27-46
• /
• 2013

The Incoterms and United Nations Convention on Contract for the international Sales of Goods(CISG) allocate a risk in their articles. These rules make a decision that the parties who make a transaction are bound to bear the risk or damages of goods. Though a goods have a damages or loss during a transportation, buyer is liable for the payment of purchase price. In this case, this paper defines the meaning whether who can bear the risk under Incoterms and CISG. In the majority cases which deal between parties, after shipment or at the end of carriage, the loss or damages are found in buyer's hand. If a damages or loss is made during transit, customarily these risk are covered by insurance. Otherwise, these rules provide a tools for solving this problems. Then, between parties should be accomplished their target equitably.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2011

This work describes a study on the Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) based defense decision making. Future battle-space is transformed into a System of Systems (SoS) concept which is accomplished missions and their functions through network based battle management systems under forming their grids of various sensors and shooters in a single theater. The acquisition process is, therefore, changing over from single system requirements to capabilities based acquisition of SoS. AoA help to justify the need for starting, stopping, or continuing an acquisition program. AoA identify potentially viable solutions and provide comparative cost, effectiveness, and risk assessments of each solution to a baseline. The decision making must consider not only cost-effectiveness, risk, and military worth, but also domestic policy, foreign policy, technological maturity of the solution, the environment, the budget, treaties, and a host of additional factors. In this point of view, this paper analyzes AoA template which are critical elements of the defense decision making. From results of this analysis of AoA template for Korean acquisition environment are presented.