• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.315-318
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• 2007

In order to reduce the amount of damage from natural disasters, we needs prevention meteorological database classified into the cause of disaster, damage elements etc. For this, we have analyzed four data, such as Statistical yearbook of calamities issued by the National Emergency Management Agency and Annual Climatological Report issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration and Recently 10 years for natural disaster damage and Statistics Yearbook from the Ministry of Government Administration and Human affairs. Through the analysis of disaster data, we have selected input variables, such as causes and elements, occurrence frequencies, vulnerable areas of natural disaster, etc. In order to reduce damage from natural disaster, the prevention activities and forecasting based on meteorological parameters and damage datas are required. In addition, it is necessary to process meteorological information for disaster prevention activities. Through these procedure, we have established the foundation of database about natural disasters. This database will be used to assess the natural disasters and build risk model and natural disasters mitigation plan.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.190-203
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• 2015

기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력의 3가지 항목의 함수로 정의되는 취약성-탄력성 지수인 VRI(Vulnerability-Resilience Index)를 이용하여 기후변화로 더 심각해 질 것으로 예상되는 극한 기상 현상인 태풍을 대상으로 기후변화 취약성 지수 정량화 연구를 수행하였다. 기존 취약성 지수인 VRI는 기후변화 취약성에 대한 지자체별 상대적 차이만을 보여 주므로 그 정량화 연구는 매우 필수불가결하며 우리나라 기후변화 대응 정책에도 매우 중요하다. VRI의 정량화를 위하여 과거 20년간 태풍으로 인한 피해액, 발생횟수, 주요 피해지역 등의 통계 정보가 사용되었고, 기후노출 대용변수들에 가중치를 부여하기 이전과 이후의 계산되는 VRI를 각각 지자체별로 분석하였다. VRI의 정량화를 위하여 각 기후노출 대용변수를 하나씩 이용하여 계산한 다음 계산된 VRI를 태풍 피해액과의 상관계수(R)를 구하였고, 이 값에 비례하여 각 기후노출 대용변수들의 가중치를 결정하였다. 그 결과 가중치 없이 계산한 지역별 VRI는 상당 지역에서 피해액과의 상관성이 없는 등 상당한 차이를 보였으나 가중치를 부여한 결과 계산된 VRI는 지역별 피해액과 높은 상관관계를 보이는 등 많은 오류가 크게 줄었다. 이 결과를 토대로 VRI를 정량화하여 그 피해액을 추정해본 결과 VRI=1 일 경우 약 5백억원의 지자체 피해액을 유발하는 것으로 해석할 수 있었다. 이러한 기후변화 취약성 지수의 정량화 연구는 우리나라 미래기후 시나리오연구에 효과적으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권2호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2020

In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future crop damage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of 80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data such as DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio, pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to construct the relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase in the Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful to identify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.135-146
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• 2008

This study utilizes the fine-tuning and small-digit characteristics of the successive zooming genetic algorithm (SZGA) to propose a method of structural damage detection in a continuum structure, where the differences in the natural frequencies of a structure obtained by experiment and FEM are compared and minimized using an assumed location and extent of structural damage. The final methodology applied to the structural damage detection is a kind of pseudo-discrete-variable-algorithm that counts the soundness variables as one (perfectly sound) if they are above a certain standard, such as 0.99. This methodology is based on the fact that most well-designed structures exhibit failures at some critical point due to manufacturing error, while the remaining region is free of damage. Thus, damage of 1% (depending on the given standard) or less can be neglected, and the search concentrated on finding more serious failures. It is shown that the proposed method can find out the exact structural damage of the monitored structure and reduce the time and amount of computation.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제38권6호
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• pp.801-808
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• 2018

선형회귀모형의 학습은 일반적으로 자료의 개수가 설명변수의 개수보다 충분히 크고, 설명변수들 사이에 심각한 다중공선성이 없다는 가정 하에서 안정적으로 이루어진다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 가정이 위배되었을 경우 모형 학습의 어려움을 실제 호우피해자료를 분석함으로써 조명하였고, 이를 해결하기 위해 자료를 통합한 다음 주성분회귀모형 또는 능형회귀모형을 사용할 것을 검토하였다. 모형의 학습에 사용된 자료와 별도의 독립된 자료에서 제안된 모형들의 예측력을 평가하였고, 제안된 방법이 선형회귀모형보다 더 나은 예측력을 보이는 것을 확인하였다.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.107-121
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• 2024

In this study, we empirically analyzed the impact of physical risks due to climate change on the soundness and operational performance of the financial industry by combining economics and climatology. Particularly, unlike previous studies, we employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) method to extract trends of climate-related risk variables and economic-financial variables, conducting a two-stage empirical analysis. In the first stage estimation, we found that the delinquency rate and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) ratio of commercial banks have significant negative effects on the damage caused by natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, average temperature, and number of typhoons. On the other hand, for insurance companies, the damage from natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, frequency of heavy snowfall, and annual average temperature have significant negative effects on return on assets (ROA) and the risk-based capital ratio (RBC). In the second stage estimation, based on the first stage results, we predicted the soundness and operational performance indicators of commercial banks and insurance companies until 2035. According to the forecast results, the delinquency rate of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily until 2035 under assumption that recent years' trend continues until 2035. It indicates that banks' managerial risk can be seriously worsened from climate change. Also the BIS ratio is expected to decrease which also indicates weakening safety buffer against climate risks over time. Additionally, the ROA of insurance companies is expected to decrease, followed by an increase in the RBC, and then a subsequent decrease.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.41-51
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• 2022

Cables are critical components of cable-stayed bridges. A structural health monitoring system provides real-time cable tension recording for cable health monitoring. However, the measurement data involve multiple sources of variability, i.e., varying environmental and operational factors, which increase the complexity of cable condition monitoring. In this study, a one-class classification method is developed for cable condition assessment using Bayesian factor analysis (FA). The single-peaked vehicle-induced cable tension is assumed to be relevant to vehicle positions and weights. The Bayesian FA is adopted to establish the correlation model between cable tensions and vehicles. Vehicle weights are assumed to be latent variables and the influences of different transverse positions are quantified by coefficient parameters. The Bayesian theorem is employed to estimate the parameters and variables automatically, and the damage index is defined on the basis of the well-trained model. The proposed method is applied to one cable-stayed bridge for cable damage detection. Significant deviations of the damage indices of Cable SJS11 were observed, indicating a damaged condition in 2011. This study develops a novel method to evaluate the health condition of individual cable using the FA in the Bayesian framework. Only vehicle-induced cable tensions are used and there is no need to monitor the vehicles. The entire process, including the data pre-processing, model training and damage index calculation of one cable, takes only 35 s, which is highly efficient.

• 한국농촌생활과학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.203-212
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• 1997

This study was carried out to understand the consumer complaining behavior of rural women leaders and to identify variables affecting complaining behavior. 403 samples were collected from the rural women leaders in rural areas by mailed questionnaire from June 1 to June 20 in 1996. The data was analyzed by frequency, percentage, mean, chi-square, F-test, correlation, regression using SPSS/PC＋ program. Most of rural women leaders experienced consumer dissatisfaction and damage, but they mainly took private complaining behavior. The rate of the non-complaining behavior was 20.1%. They recognized that consumer dissatisfaction and damage was due to external attribution. The results showed that the most influential variables for the consumer complaining behavior of rural women leaders were age and consumer capacity. The older they were and the more consumer capacity they had. the more active complaining behavior was taken.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.311-325
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• 2011

Nowadays, many engineers believe that hybrid structures with reinforced concrete central core walls and perimeter steel frames offer an economical method to develop the strength and stiffness required for seismic design. As a result, a variety of such structures have recently been applied in actual construction. However, the performance-based seismic design of such structures has not been investigated systematically. In the performance-based seismic design, quantifying the seismic damage of complete structures by damage indices is one of the fundamental issues. Four damage states and the final softening index at each state for high-rise hybrid structures are suggested firstly in this paper. Based on nonlinear dynamic analysis, the relation of the maximum inter-story drift, the main structural characteristics, and the final softening index is obtained. At the same time, the relation between the maximum inter-story drift and the maximum roof displacement over the height is also acquired. A double-variable index accounting for maximum deformation and cumulative energy is put forward based on the pushover analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted on a high-rise hybrid structure model tested on shaking table before to verify the suggested quantities of damage indices.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.123-136
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• 2008

A new plastic-damage constitutive model applicable to lightweight concrete (LWC) and normal weight concrete (NWC) is proposed in this paper based on both continuum damage mechanics and plasticity theories. Two damage variables are used to represent tensile and compressive damage independently. The effective stress is computed in the Drucker-Prager multi-surface plasticity framework. The stress is then computed by multiplication of the damaged part and the effective part. The proposed model is coded as a user material subroutine and incorporated in a finite element analysis software. The constitutive integration algorithm is implemented by adopting the operator split involving elastic predictor, plastic corrector and damage corrector. The numerical study shows that the algorithm is efficient and robust in the finite element analysis. Experimental investigation is conducted to verify the proposed model involving both static and dynamic tests. The very good agreement between the numerical results and experimental results demonstrates the capability of the proposed model to capture the behaviors of LWC and NWC structures for static and impact loading.