• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.899-907
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• 2022

Purpose: Although many studies on seismic fragility analysis of general bridges have been conducted using machine learning methods, studies on curved bridge structures are insignificant. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the seismic fragility of bridges with I-shaped curved girders based on the machine learning method considering the material property and geometric uncertainties. Method: Material properties and pier height were considered as uncertainty parameters. Parameters were sampled using the Latin hypercube technique and time history analysis was performed considering the seismic uncertainty. Machine learning data was created by applying artificial neural network and response surface analysis method to the original data. Finally, earthquake fragility analysis was performed using original data and learning data. Result: Parameters were sampled using the Latin hypercube technique, and a total of 160 time history analyzes were performed considering the uncertainty of the earthquake. The analysis result and the predicted value obtained through machine learning were compared, and the coefficient of determination was compared to compare the similarity between the two values. The coefficient of determination of the response surface method was 0.737, which was relatively similar to the observed value. The seismic fragility curve also showed that the predicted value through the response surface method was similar to the observed value. Conclusion: In this study, when the observed value through the finite element analysis and the predicted value through the machine learning method were compared, it was found that the response surface method predicted a result similar to the observed value. However, both machine learning methods were found to underestimate the observed values.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.53-64
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• 2009

Many slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration. A lot of recent researches are therefore focused on rainfall-induced slope instability and the rainfall infiltration is recognized as the important triggering factor. The rainfall infiltrates into the soil slope and makes the matric suction lost in the slope and even the positive pore water pressure develops near the surface of the slope. They decrease the resisting shear strength. In Korea, a few public institutions suggested conservative slope design guidelines that assume a fully saturated soil condition. However, this assumption is irrelevant and sometimes soil properties are misused in the slope design method to fulfill the requirement. In this study, a more relevant slope stability evaluation method is suggested to take into account the real rainfall infiltration phenomenon. Unsaturated soil properties such as shear strength, soil-water characteristic curve and permeability for Korean weathered soils were obtained by laboratory tests and also estimated by artificial neural network models. For real-time assessment of slope instability, failure warning criteria of slope based on deterministic and probabilistic analyses were introduced to complement uncertainties of field measurement data. The slope stability evaluation technique can be combined with field measurement data of important factors, such as matric suction and water content, to develop an early warning system for probably unstable slopes due to the rainfall.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.246-246
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• 2021

본 연구는 강우 발생시 유량을 추정하는 것에 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 선행연구의 모형 개발방법론에서 벗어나 딥러닝 알고리즘 중 하나인 합성곱 신경망 (convolution neural network)과 수문학적 이미지 (hydrological image)를 이용하여 강우 발생시 유량을 추정하였다. 합성곱 신경망은 일반적으로 분류 문제 (classification)을 해결하기 위한 목적으로 개발되었기 때문에 불특정 연속변수인 유량을 모의하기에는 적합하지 않다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 합성곱 신경망의 완전 연결층 (Fully connected layer)를 개선하여 연속변수를 모의할 수 있도록 개선하였다. 대부분 합성곱 신경망은 RGB (red, green, blue) 사진 (photograph)을 이용하여 해당 사진이 나타내는 것을 예측하는 목적으로 사용하지만, 본 연구의 경우 일반 RGB 사진을 이용하여 유출량을 예측하는 것은 경험적 모형의 전제(독립변수와 종속변수의 관계)를 무너뜨리는 결과를 초래할 수 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 임의의 유역에 대해 2차원 공간에서 무차원의 수문학적 속성을 갖는 grid의 집합으로 정의되는 수문학적 이미지는 입력자료로 활용했다. 합성곱 신경망의 구조는 Convolution Layer와 Pulling Layer가 5회 반복하는 구조로 설정하고, 이후 Flatten Layer, 2개의 Dense Layer, 1개의 Batch Normalization Layer를 배열하고, 다시 1개의 Dense Layer가 이어지는 구조로 설계하였다. 마지막 Dense Layer의 활성화 함수는 분류모형에 이용되는 softmax 또는 sigmoid 함수를 대신하여 회귀모형에서 자주 사용되는 Linear 함수로 설정하였다. 이와 함께 각 층의 활성화 함수는 정규화 선형함수 (ReLu)를 이용하였으며, 모형의 학습 평가 및 검정을 판단하기 위해 MSE 및 MAE를 사용했다. 또한, 모형평가는 NSE와 RMSE를 이용하였다. 그 결과, 모형의 학습 평가에 대한 MSE는 11.629.8 m3/s에서 118.6 m3/s로, MAE는 25.4 m3/s에서 4.7 m3/s로 감소하였으며, 모형의 검정에 대한 MSE는 1,997.9 m3/s에서 527.9 m3/s로, MAE는 21.5 m3/s에서 9.4 m3/s로 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 모형평가를 위한 NSE는 0.7, RMSE는 27.0 m3/s로 나타나, 본 연구의 모형은 양호(moderate)한 것으로 판단하였다. 이에, 본 연구를 통해 제시된 방법론에 기반을 두어 CNN 모형 구조의 확장과 수문학적 이미지의 개선 또는 새로운 이미지 개발 등을 추진할 경우 모형의 예측 성능이 향상될 수 있는 여지가 있으며, 원격탐사 분야나, 위성 영상을 이용한 전 지구적 또는 광역 단위의 실시간 유량 모의 분야 등으로의 응용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5D
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• pp.533-540
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• 2010

Dam is very important facility in water supply and flood control. Therefore study needs to analyze reservoir capacity accurately to manage Dam efficiently. This study compared time series reservoir capacity using multi-dimensional spatial information to Chungju Dam reservoir and major conclusions are as follows. First, LiDAR and multi beam echo sounder survey were carried out in land zone and water zone of Dam reservoir area. And calibration process was performed to enhance the accuracy of survey data and it could be constructed that multi dimensional spatial information which was clearly satisfied with the standard of tolerance error by validation with ground control points. Reservoir capacity by water level was calculated using triangle irregular network from detailed topographic data that was constructed by linked with airborne LiDAR and multi beam echo sounder data, and curve equation of reservoir capacity was developed through regression analysis in 2008. In the comparison of the reservoir capacity of 2008 with those of 1986 and 1996, the higher water level goes, total reservoir capacity of 2008 showed decrease because of the increase of sediment in reservoir. Also, erosion and sediment area could be analyzed through calculating the reservoir capacity by the range of water level. Especially the range of water level as 130.0~135.0 which is the upper part of average water level, showed the highest erosion characteristics during 1986~2008 and 1996~2008 and it is considered that the erosion of reservoir slant by heavy rainfall is major reason.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.231-252
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• 2023

We present the analysis results of the simultaneous multifrequency observations of the blazar 4C +28.07. The observations were conducted by the Interferometric Monitoring of Gamma-ray Bright Active Galactic Nuclei (iMOGABA) program, which is a key science program of the Korean Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Network (KVN). Observations of the iMOGABA program for 4C +28.07 were conducted from 16 January 2013 (MJD 56308) to 13 March 2020 (MJD 58921). We also used γ-ray data from the Fermi Large Array Telescope (Fermi-LAT) Light Curve Repository, covering the energy range from 100 MeV to 100 GeV. We divided the iMOGABA data and the Fermi-LAT data into five periods from 0 to 4, according to the prosody of the 22 GHz data and the presence or absence of the data. In order to investigate the characteristics of each period, the light curves were plotted and compared. However, a peak that formed a hill was observed earlier than the period of a strong γ-ray flare at 43-86 GHz in period 3 (MJD 57400-58100). Therefore, we assumed that the minimum total CLEANed flux density for each frequency was quiescent flux (S_q) in which the core of 4C +28.07 emitted the minimum, with the variable flux (S_var) obtained by subtracting S_q from the values of the total CLEANed flux density. We then compared the variability of the spectral indices (α) between adjacent frequencies through a spectral analysis. Most notably, α_22-43 showed optically thick spectra in the absence of a strong γ-ray flare, and when the flare appeared, α_22-43 became optically thinner. In order to find out the characteristics of the magnetic field in the variable region, the magnetic field strength in the synchrotron self-absorption (B_SSA) and the equipartition magnetic field strength (B_eq) were obtained. We found that B_SSA is largely consistent with B_eq within the uncertainty, implying that the SSA region in the source is not significantly deviated from the equipartition condition in the γ-ray quiescent periods.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.23 no.10
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• pp.949-958
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• 2022

Objective: To investigate the feasibility of using a deep learning-based analysis of auscultation data to predict significant stenosis of arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) in patients undergoing hemodialysis requiring percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA). Materials and Methods: Forty patients (24 male and 16 female; median age, 62.5 years) with dysfunctional native AVF were prospectively recruited. Digital sounds from the AVF shunt were recorded using a wireless electronic stethoscope before (pre-PTA) and after PTA (post-PTA), and the audio files were subsequently converted to mel spectrograms, which were used to construct various deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) models (DenseNet201, EfficientNetB5, and ResNet50). The performance of these models for diagnosing ≥ 50% AVF stenosis was assessed and compared. The ground truth for the presence of ≥ 50% AVF stenosis was obtained using digital subtraction angiography. Gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) was used to produce visual explanations for DCNN model decisions. Results: Eighty audio files were obtained from the 40 recruited patients and pooled for the study. Mel spectrograms of "pre-PTA" shunt sounds showed patterns corresponding to abnormal high-pitched bruits with systolic accentuation observed in patients with stenotic AVF. The ResNet50 and EfficientNetB5 models yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.99 and 0.98, respectively, at optimized epochs for predicting ≥ 50% AVF stenosis. However, Grad-CAM heatmaps revealed that only ResNet50 highlighted areas relevant to AVF stenosis in the mel spectrogram. Conclusion: Mel spectrogram-based DCNN models, particularly ResNet50, successfully predicted the presence of significant AVF stenosis requiring PTA in this feasibility study and may potentially be used in AVF surveillance.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.52-59
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• 2007

In this paper, we analyzed and measured implant isolation characteristics for a 1.25 Gbps monolithic integrated hi-directional (M-BiDi) optoelectronic system-on-a-chip, which is a key component to constitute gigabit passive optical networks (PONs) for a fiber-to-the-home (FTTH). Also, we derived an equivalent circuit of the implant structure under various DC bias conditions. The 1.25 Gbps M-BiDi transmit-receive SoC consists of a laser diode with a monitor photodiode as a transmitter and a digital photodiode as a digital data receiver on the same InP wafer According to IEEE 802.3ah and ITU-T G.983.3 standards, a receiver sensitivity of the digital receiver has to satisfy under -24 dBm @ BER=10-12. Therefore, the electrical crosstalk levels have to maintain less than -86 dB from DC to 3 GHz. From analysed and measured results of the implant structure, the M-BiDi SoC with the implant area of 20 mm width and more than 200 mm distance between the laser diode and monitor photodiode, and between the monitor photodiode and digital photodiode, satisfies the electrical crosstalk level. These implant characteristics can be used for the design and fabrication of an optoelectronic SoC design, and expended to a mixed-mode SoC field.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.57-73
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• 2021

Maintenance and prevention of failure through anomaly detection of ICT infrastructure is becoming important. System monitoring data is multidimensional time series data. When we deal with multidimensional time series data, we have difficulty in considering both characteristics of multidimensional data and characteristics of time series data. When dealing with multidimensional data, correlation between variables should be considered. Existing methods such as probability and linear base, distance base, etc. are degraded due to limitations called the curse of dimensions. In addition, time series data is preprocessed by applying sliding window technique and time series decomposition for self-correlation analysis. These techniques are the cause of increasing the dimension of data, so it is necessary to supplement them. The anomaly detection field is an old research field, and statistical methods and regression analysis were used in the early days. Currently, there are active studies to apply machine learning and artificial neural network technology to this field. Statistically based methods are difficult to apply when data is non-homogeneous, and do not detect local outliers well. The regression analysis method compares the predictive value and the actual value after learning the regression formula based on the parametric statistics and it detects abnormality. Anomaly detection using regression analysis has the disadvantage that the performance is lowered when the model is not solid and the noise or outliers of the data are included. There is a restriction that learning data with noise or outliers should be used. The autoencoder using artificial neural networks is learned to output as similar as possible to input data. It has many advantages compared to existing probability and linear model, cluster analysis, and map learning. It can be applied to data that does not satisfy probability distribution or linear assumption. In addition, it is possible to learn non-mapping without label data for teaching. However, there is a limitation of local outlier identification of multidimensional data in anomaly detection, and there is a problem that the dimension of data is greatly increased due to the characteristics of time series data. In this study, we propose a CMAE (Conditional Multimodal Autoencoder) that enhances the performance of anomaly detection by considering local outliers and time series characteristics. First, we applied Multimodal Autoencoder (MAE) to improve the limitations of local outlier identification of multidimensional data. Multimodals are commonly used to learn different types of inputs, such as voice and image. The different modal shares the bottleneck effect of Autoencoder and it learns correlation. In addition, CAE (Conditional Autoencoder) was used to learn the characteristics of time series data effectively without increasing the dimension of data. In general, conditional input mainly uses category variables, but in this study, time was used as a condition to learn periodicity. The CMAE model proposed in this paper was verified by comparing with the Unimodal Autoencoder (UAE) and Multi-modal Autoencoder (MAE). The restoration performance of Autoencoder for 41 variables was confirmed in the proposed model and the comparison model. The restoration performance is different by variables, and the restoration is normally well operated because the loss value is small for Memory, Disk, and Network modals in all three Autoencoder models. The process modal did not show a significant difference in all three models, and the CPU modal showed excellent performance in CMAE. ROC curve was prepared for the evaluation of anomaly detection performance in the proposed model and the comparison model, and AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were compared. In all indicators, the performance was shown in the order of CMAE, MAE, and AE. Especially, the reproduction rate was 0.9828 for CMAE, which can be confirmed to detect almost most of the abnormalities. The accuracy of the model was also improved and 87.12%, and the F1-score was 0.8883, which is considered to be suitable for anomaly detection. In practical aspect, the proposed model has an additional advantage in addition to performance improvement. The use of techniques such as time series decomposition and sliding windows has the disadvantage of managing unnecessary procedures; and their dimensional increase can cause a decrease in the computational speed in inference.The proposed model has characteristics that are easy to apply to practical tasks such as inference speed and model management.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.473-483
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• 2020

This paper proposes a tourism recommendation system in intelligent cloud environment using information of tourist behavior applied with perceived value. This proposed system applied tourist information and empirical analysis information that reflected the perceptual value of tourists in their behavior to the tourism recommendation system using wide and deep learning technology. This proposal system was applied to the tourism recommendation system by collecting and analyzing various tourist information that can be collected and analyzing the values that tourists were usually aware of and the intentions of people's behavior. It provides empirical information by analyzing and mapping the association of tourism information, perceived value and behavior to tourism platforms in various fields that have been used. In addition, the tourism recommendation system using wide and deep learning technology, which can achieve both memorization and generalization in one model by learning linear model components and neural only components together, and the method of pipeline operation was presented. As a result of applying wide and deep learning model, the recommendation system presented in this paper showed that the app subscription rate on the visiting page of the tourism-related app store increased by 3.9% compared to the control group, and the other 1% group applied a model using only the same variables and only the deep side of the neural network structure, resulting in a 1% increase in subscription rate compared to the model using only the deep side. In addition, by measuring the area (AUC) below the receiver operating characteristic curve for the dataset, offline AUC was also derived that the wide-and-deep learning model was somewhat higher, but more influential in online traffic.